Category: Money Tips Date: 2007-07-30
We believe that the two high quarter, the market would remain the main shock. New from the old, refinancing, IPO, etc. is expected to rise strongly restrict the broad market space, but in March the market trend has proven that: broad market decline in the same space is limited. In such a state, if you want to get beyond the market's gains, the best strategy is to play down the index, selection of individual stocks, combined with the use of a variety of operational means. Overall, two-quarter investment in the market characteristics of the theme still very clear.
Appreciation of the RMB Theme
The RMB exchange rate formation mechanism reform, the RMB appreciation was the overall trend. The long run, RMB appreciation trend is irreversible. In essence, the exchange rate appreciation is a country's economic growth and industrial upgrading of the boosters. RMB appreciation has begun to play a role in China's industrial upgrading: First, export strategy to improve product quality, product innovation and the frequency increased, the national economy's position in the international division of labor increased; Second, the relative prices of resource products, which to a large extent China's economic growth to solve the bottleneck problem of resources, in order to create the conditions for industrial upgrading; Third, access to development capital-intensive industries, financial services, real estate industry and other capital-intensive industries for support; Fourth, our population will increase appreciation of the renminbi The relative wealth, consumer goods and services and thus to be increased demand for goods.
Therefore, we remain optimistic about high-value-added manufacturing and services growth potential of goods, capital-intensive and technology-intensive industries in the appreciation of the renminbi under the growth, in which service products will be more room for growth. Proposes a focus on finance, real estate, commerce, machinery, bio-pharmaceuticals, transportation, public utilities and other industries.
Periodic bottom of the theme
Periodic fluctuations in the industry under the inexorable law governing the market economy. Investment value in pursuing the course of the industry, at the bottom of the cycle, the industry provides us with an expected growth. Coal, electric power, iron and steel plates cause for concern.
Development and Reform Commission has already submitted its proposal to the State Council, the coal linkage, the second coal linkage is very likely launch in the second quarter. Of the power industry, coal 04,05 years, the relative cost pressure declined significantly, although the pressure still exists, but has enough to make the power industry's profitability level from 05 three quarters out of the inflection point. If the Internet price increase 0.01 yuan / kwh or more, the profitability of power companies will continue to be restorative upward trend. G proposes a focus on long-electricity, electricity and other utilities class title listed companies.
Although the large increase in production capacity of steel in 2006, the domestic steel market will supply exceeds demand, but domestic demand is growing steadily. The same time, domestic steel prices are lower than abroad, the fact that steel prices will make 2006 the domestic steel prices to a smooth-based. Baosteel raised the second quarter due to product prices, are expected in the second quarter level of profitability of the steel industry will be gradually bottomed out. In particular, the Government introduced brewing capacity out of the context of the policy, similar to the advantages of such a large Baoshan iron and steel enterprises will have greater opportunities for development, which will bring short-term stock price rebound opportunities.
Theme merger and reorganization
With the split share structure reform, the deepening of China's securities market will eventually complete the listing of shares tradable, which re-acquisition of the company's implementation of the plan to create a favorable market environment. Meanwhile, the share-trading reform is also conducive to the continuous allocation of resources as a means to more effectively market to play a role in acquisitions, mergers, and restructuring activities will be increasingly active. Merger and reorganization will be the theme of A-share market in 2006 continued a hot spot.
We have integrated a subsidiary of Sinopec emotion to the relevant person a tremendous opportunity for companies to invest in the same time, while also reminding investors should pay close attention to the Department of aluminum merger integration business opportunities. The recent announcement of aluminum, said aluminum will be submitted to the shareholders of the General Assembly this year approved the Shanghai Stock Exchange issued 1.5 billion A shares plan, once the aluminum to start issuing A shares after the project has concentrated its related companies will become inevitable, the game will be the circulating shares a privileged position. Shandong Aluminum Industry, Lanzhou Aluminum and Jiaozuo Wanfang should take an active interest. Ordnance Equipment Group's large car system has also opened a whole and the prelude, it is worth focusing on.
In addition, in July 2005 introduced the "iron and steel industry policy," officially opened the iron and steel industry, a prelude to merger and reorganization. The integration of the domestic steel industry, mainly in two ways: one is the foreign steel company shares or even holding the domestic steel industry, through technology and scale to enhance and accelerate the industry survival of the fittest; the other is the leading domestic steel enterprises, through the Group's overall listing or strong-strong to further enlarge and strengthen the joint formed to compete with foreign giants strength. Either way, there were distinct stimulating effect on stock prices. From the revaluation of foreign acquisition costs and a premium of view, the Mainland Steel shares of listed companies as a whole has dropped to the bottom.
