Category: Money tips Release Date: 2006-01-19
A time when end of the year, in 2006 around the corner, many brokerage firms and research institutions published their 2006 A-share market outlook and 2006 Annual Strategy Report.
As can be seen from a number of the report, "Eleventh Five-year subject," "system innovation" will be the 2006 market, the key word, the corresponding investment opportunities with institutional investors agree that, while in 2006 will enable investors to diversify the structure of diversified market valuation standards. Expansion pressure and business growth has become an institution of the most concern.
CITIC Securities Strategy Report stated that: At present, there is a big A-share market valuation of confusion, although the A-share market valuation of indicators, compared with the international market has certain advantages, but because of GDP growth is not an effective conductivity, as well as expansion of the concerns, assessment mechanism is the future role of performance pressure, the above advantage is not obvious. Although the global economy is expected to be a steady growth, but there are still a lot of risk.
Consumption growth is expected to remain stable in 2006, total retail sales of social consumer goods increased by no less than 13%, total retail sales of social consumer goods in 2007 would fall growth is expected to increase less than in 2006 more than 1 percentage point. Not unusual factors, it is expected the level of investment is still high, but decline. 2006 CPI likely to experience fluctuations in the process up, there's little chance of deflation. A one-off revaluation of the yuan again the probability is small, but are likely to open up at the right time to continue trading range. Is estimated that the yuan in 2006 U.S. dollars within 12 months will be the gradual appreciation of 3%. The first quarter of 2006 to expand the trading range, a better opportunity.
Investment and export demand in the next two years, subject to the constraints of domestic and international market factors will become increasingly common in consumer demand growth is expected to remain strong, but its effect can not completely eliminate the promotion of investment and export growth slowing down effect caused by the economy.
The above analysis, they believe the future of A-share market is still difficult out of the quagmire of depression, new from the old market and other factors will remain troubled. With the Eleventh Five-Year plan as well as the gradual evolution of market structure, which breeds more investment opportunities. Including its focus on "Eleventh Five-Year" theme launched the "three rural" energy-saving environmental protection, independent innovation, service industries, the regional economy, economic growth mode transformation and value-driven investment revaluation of such fundamental topics as well as innovation in the capital market system with to new product investment opportunities.
Hai Tong Securities Strategy Report noted that in 2006 the overall market will maintain and even to adjust downward trend, showing characteristics of local opportunities.
Macroeconomic deflationary pressure growing, business growth and profitability growth will be constrained. A reasonable valuation is not a sufficient condition for a strong market, the lack of growth is the most fatal. Value-based expansion on the basis of constant pressure, new from the old hard to become a new starting point for a bull market.
Markets tend to be more focus on immediate opportunities, and the risk of ignoring the distance. Last warrants transaction fully reflected in this market tend to focus more on immediate opportunities, and ignore the distant risk. Although we can not say that the market is wrong, but investors will eventually be some people who bear the necessary cost. In a widespread lack of speculative credit market environment, the individual's rational behavior are often more easily lead to collective irrationality, individual rationality and the current system copulate together, decided to conduct short-term investors. A real insight into the opportunities to move beyond a certain market, those few who favored by God, from the value of the main and pure speculation before the arrival of the deadline might not be maintained, however, return the value of the road is doomed, although T +0 for each one to provide investors with an opportunity to escape, but the outcome is doomed, as we all try to win the price difference in the carnival warrants, in the carnival coming to an end, the warrants will follow one after another level, returned to earth from heaven. Is the so-called "How to indicate how the beginning of the end."
China Merchants Securities Strategy Report noted that the valuation into line with the share reform of the price pressure dominated the market volatility in 2005, but after 2006 the macroeconomic and structural differences will make it share reform of listed companies continued to show a downward trend in profitability in 2006, a weak balance the city will lay the basis for the stock market long-term bull market. Combined profits of listed companies, with a new outlook on the stock market will thus usher in a new bull market boom.
A-share listed company's overall profitability of a downward trend began to take shape. Sub-sector study results show that the A-share listed company on the largest contribution to the overall profitability of the energy and basic materials industries are at the beginning of a profit recession, the rest of the industry's profitability is difficult to expect a more satisfactory growth, thinking that A-share listed company's overall profitability level is now only a just slowdown phase to the beginning of a downward trend, and this is expected in the current market forecast earnings of listed companies not yet evident.
A moderate slowdown in the macroeconomic climate that dominates the industry chain down the background, it is expected a profit of listed companies in the next one to two years, there will 10% -15% decline. The current high rate of investment in line with China's entry into heavy industrialization phase, sustained and rapid economic growth, excess capacity exists primarily on the local scale, the economy is unlikely, therefore rapid decline in the future but will slowly slow down, and the leading industry chain, the vast majority of businesses are facing the slowdown in demand and capacity to gradually release down under the boom. As the A-share listed company's overall texture is not high, the representation of the economy is not strong, even if the future profits of industrial enterprises remain within 10% of the growth rate, it is estimated the next one to two years, the expected value of profit decline of 10% -15 % for.
Market has been on a downward trend in profitability to make early response but not yet full, the current stock price adjustment was not until the middle rather than the bottom of a downward trend in profitability will continue to determine cause about 10% adjustment. Psychological and historical experience from an investment perspective, the long-term low stock price decline will appear in the earnings the fastest, but also the most pessimistic market expectations, when, it is very likely to occur in the second quarter of 2006, before and after.
A-share market will show a diversified pattern of valuation standards. Consider the factors A-share market price of the price-earnings ratio already at low levels, but still can not be based on historically low price-earnings ratio of stock and to determine the bear market has ended. Relative price-earnings ratio and other valuation method is mainly based on profit forecasts to determine the market value of stock investments run trend in the declining profitability of its guiding significance to the context of weakening, while the 2006 will enable investors to diversify the structure of the market valuation of the standard variety.
Valuation levels and stock change of the price of assets, taking into consideration aspects of the relationship between supply and demand is expected in 2006 A-share market will continue to demonstrate a weak balance of city features, the core of the Shanghai index trading range of about 950-1220 points. Is expected in March 2006 before the market will be a result of the continuous blue chip stocks and instead to maintain a relatively stable pattern of shock rebound, after profit decline accelerated, new from the old A-share market and so the impact will the formation of a long-term lows, and then entered a long-term low-turbulence repeatedly bottomed stage. When the macro-economic growth momentum in the transformation and growth process of the transformation through a period of adjustment when a large number of high-quality companies listed A-share market will also enable the completion of restructuring, earnings trend will be the turning point can be expected, the share price, it is expected ahead of the trough, the earnings of listed companies will be replaced as the dominant trend in the decision to run the stock market variables.
Founder Securities Research Institute Strategy Report noted that although the first three quarters of the macro data show that China's economic growth began to slow trend, there is a potential deflationary pressures, but considering the 2006 is the "Eleventh Five-Year Plan" of the first year, the new plan will economy brings new growth momentum, expected in 2006 China's economy is expected to continue to maintain steady growth.
By the macro-control and costs factors, the data show that performance of listed companies in mid-2005 has reached the peak of profits in 2005, is expected to decline in overall performance is expected that this trend will continue into 2006. Split share structure reform remains the most important factors influencing the market, and the resulting market structural adjustment has not yet ended, the lack of investment philosophy, stock reform brought about by expansion of the outstanding shares, warrants to bring the funds diversion, new shares issued uncertainties, the impact would be an important factor in the market in 2006.
Analysts believe that the market is still running on the 2245-point long-term downward trend since 2006, does not have the conditions for the formation of a bull market reversal in 2006, A-share market will continue to be a year to complete its own structural adjustment, is lay a solid foundation for a years, market opportunities, mainly in short-term rebound and local hot spots.
2006 A-share market investment strategy: seize the theme, band operation, grasping a small zoom. The investment focus in 2006 summarized as follows: expansion of domestic demand, resource price reform, independent innovation, and defensive four main themes, corresponding to the related industries are: cement, urban construction, water, military, pharmaceutical, oil refining and so on.
The SME board has now become a tradable market, on behalf of the direction of the future development of the market is expected to become the next stock market reform in the SAR, the SME board shares IPO will also bring new opportunities for the development of the SME board in 2006 Investors should focus on the plate.
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