|
|||||||||||||||
|
||||||||||||||||||
Data:2009-12-12 2:34
Source: Jiuding Allianz Authors: Xiao Yu Hang
China A-share market in 2006 the overall performance of a magnificent scale, under the structural bull market, that is up 300-550% in Niugu strong, but also a huge hit a record low decline of the species, and in the structural bull market in blue chip companies, the new weights Quotes of the performance of stocks as the main line, and its account for 15% of the overall market, while the relative that about 15% of the stocks, nearly 80% of the stocks flat, if the investors in the first half of the long-term holders of stocks involved in high yes, its losses or crop failure phenomenon of the year there will be a large area. A-share market in 2006 as a whole can be described as "The waves pushed forward waves, generation of new shares for old shares" to sum up, it is undeniable that A-share market in the old blue-chip stocks with outstanding performance, such as Baosteel, Sany Heavy Industry, China Vanke A and so on, but relatively throughout the level, the new shares in North Star, Industrial and Commercial Bank of China, Bank of China, Air China, China Merchants Energy Shipping, Poly Real Estate, etc., its plate in the large cap blue-chip shares across the board performance, an overall better than the old unit. The new power Heavy line, Bank of China, etc. push the index up a decisive role, and it is the joining of these broad market shares or investment funds to absorb the concept of guidance, making the two cities of Shanghai and Shenzhen Stock apparent 80% of the running lose broad market trend and looking forward to 2007 I said: big bang will be the main characteristic, while in the big bang will continue to intensify under the Stock division, as China's A share market changes in investment patterns in large behind the shock will be very small number of cattle shares fall with many varieties of pattern, and many varieties of underperformance will be "penny stocks" into the ranks of its investment risk of these stocks will be enormous, or fatal.
1, 2006 the general situation of A-share market
From the Shanghai and Shenzhen Stock Exchange, the latest information the disclosure of view, in 2006 Shanghai and Shenzhen stock break through 9 trillion yuan, total trading volume reached 9.046889 trillion yuan, representing an increase of 186.22%; cities total amount of 220.443 billion yuan of equity financing , a record high. As of December 29, 2006, Shanghai and Shenzhen cities of the total market value of 8.94039 trillion yuan, representing an increase of 175.68 percent, accounting for the proportion of GDP reached 49.62%. According to relevant statistics, Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Index for the year if 121% of the rise of international comparison, the Chinese A-share market gains this year, ranks the highest in global stock markets. The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 2675.474 points, 29 year or up to 130.43%; Shenzhen Composite Index closed at 550.59 points, or 97.53 percent throughout the year from the record high 665 points, the distance is still 115 points, indicating there is no tape of new shares to supplement its Shenzhen true meaning of a stronger market index, while also shows that Shanghai Composite Index was due to the bank and other stocks led the right to re-record high, if you take out a new large-cap stocks, and some contribution to weight index stocks, the Shanghai Composite Index index of current practice should be 1700 or thereabouts. Shenzhen component index closed at 6647.14 points, 132.12% for the year rose; the SME board index rose 76.12 percent compared with the beginning of the current average price-earnings ratio of 33.3 times the Shanghai stock market, the Shenzhen market average price-earnings ratio of 32.72 times, which is 42.03 times the SME board.
Data show that in 2006 Shanghai Stock turnover 5.78166 trillion yuan, the Shenzhen stock turnover 3.265229 trillion yuan, 307.155 billion yuan of which the SME board turnover. Warrants turnover between the two cities close to 2 trillion yuan, which Shanghai stock market turnover 1.49411 trillion yuan, the Shenzhen market turnover of 495.846 billion yuan.
Because Quotes hot, the two cities the number of new investor accounts, 5.1768 million, investors total number of nearly 80 million accounts. The two cities in 2006, the amount of 220.443 billion yuan of equity financing for the first time issued 135.95 billion yuan fund-raising, refinancing 84.493 billion yuan, representing a record high of 154 billion yuan of equity financing in 2000 were high, 43.14%. In 2006, China Industrial and Commercial Bank of China, Bank of China, Datong-Qinhuangdao railway, China Air China, China Life and other large market capitalization companies successfully implement their A-share listed or distribution. In the H-share companies return to A-share market, China's Industrial and Commercial Bank of China first implemented the issuance and listing of A + H; Shenzhen Stock Exchange annual listing of the SME board 52 new shares, number of listed firms more than doubled, raising a total of 17.927 billion yuan, to obtain of rapid development. At present, the Shanghai and Shenzhen listed companies, there were 1421 listed stocks 1507, the total issued share capital of 1.265537 trillion shares. The two cities share-trading reform coming to an end. As of today, the two cities only 40 did not share reform companies, total market value accounting for stock reform to achieve 97.85%.
Second, technical graphics and indicators for the status quo Shanghai Composite Index from the current point of view, the last trading day of 2006, KLCI touched since the February 1993 high of 2245 points to connect a high pressure line of 2700 points to close is not crossed, there is come down, but there are large capitalization stocks postganglionic listing of China Life, which if strong performance, together with other heavyweight co-ordination may be crossed, but the effectiveness of the need to make sure that if the broader market after the withdraw sword crossed invalid, the high point of the year in broad market may be greatly increased, whereas if the broader market fell after the Festival, life is still listed on this pressure can not be crossed wires should be particularly cautious, be pointed out that the slope of this line of pressure points go up.
Short-term indicators: day, week-line KDJ were more than 90 indicates an overbought condition, there are adjustments required, RSI, WR% target The same is true; OBV can be indicators of the amount of abundant varieties of opportunity has remained solid.
The medium-term indicators: monthly, quarterly, 45 days KDJ, RSI, WR Dengjun in overbought territory, technical indicators are too high, phased down to adjust requirements, OBV indicator strong.
Long-term indicators: Annual Line KDJ an upward course, the current KDJ (9 3 3) respectively, K: 63.01. D: 59.66, J: 69.72, over the same period RSI WR% MACD have shown that there is still on the impulse energy, but its technical uplink space because of the adjustment of the medium-term indicators of demand or pull away from its space should be repeated that it had not. OBV indicators of strong .
Figure: The Shanghai Composite Index hit a 13-year high pressure line connection
3, 2007, affecting a key factor in A-share market
Studies suggest that in 2007 affected a major factor in A-share market should be mainly reflected in the following areas:
1) In accordance with the management arrangements for stock index futures early this year will launch a major capital market transactions varieties - stock index futures, the stock market's overall trend is to interpret the stock index, the stock index futures is the overall trend on the stock market's expectations. It brings together the various factors that affect the cash market and the factors affecting the expected spot market index prices and trading volume, investor psychology and behavior and other important information, together with the futures market trend to form a new price. In theory, this new price is the stock's expected future spot price, both based on the spot based on the underlying index, but also on the spot guidance. Therefore, the stock index futures and spot market exists between the natural inextricably linked. This natural relationship between the decision and follow-up of the stock-index futures listed on the introduction of a variety of financial derivatives, stock markets will be a major impact on the ecological structure. Following main features: integrity of the market will be improved to increase the proportion of institutional investors, market risk and benefits will be larger, capital allocation will be re-adjusted, market level of activity will be increased. From overseas markets affected by the introduction of index futures to view, investors should be attracted attention in 1982, the United States listed on CME S & P 500 stock index futures, stock index was down there in 1983; 1986 Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index futures launched in 1987, Hong Kong stocks dropped by more than 50%; 1988 launch in Japan's Nikkei 225 index futures, in 1989 the stock market declined by 60%. As the stock index futures provided a short-mechanism, while the index has experienced a continuous upward, and its introduction is likely to be an intermediate turning point in the market.
2), the new accounting policy January 1, 2007, the new accounting standards will lead the implementation of the listed companies. The new accounting standards and the performance of listed companies will have an important impact on asset values, so as to drive a revaluation of the value of A shares to increase the secondary market for new investment opportunities. The author believes that the new accounting standards system, the listed companies to invest in the stock valuation method to determine the profit and loss debt restructuring, investment real estate requirements, and so impact would be greatest for listed companies. In 2007 the formal implementation of new accounting standards that may dramatically change the financial statement data of listed companies profit and may change dramatically in the short term, to bring about investment opportunities. The new accounting standards, investing in stocks pricing, debt restructuring gains and losses to determine the investment real estate, such as rules for listed companies the greatest impact.
Investors need to focus on annual reports of listed companies in 2006 in "Management's Discussion and Analysis" and "supplementary information" in the message. According to China Securities Regulatory Commission issued a "do a good job with the new accounting standards on financial and accounting information disclosure related to the work of the notice" to require listed companies in 2006 annual report of the "Management Discussion and Analysis" section, detailed analysis and disclosure of the implementation of new accounting criteria, possible accounting policies, changes in accounting estimates and its impact on the company's financial condition and results of operations. In the "supplementary information" section for a list of major differences in the form of disclosure of the mediation process.
3) The revaluation of the late 80s from the 20th century, Japan, Korea, China Taiwan currency appreciation of the situation, the stock market over the same period have received a much higher than the rising rate of currency appreciation, which is currently on the market optimistic about the importance of domestic stock market One of the reasons. December 29, 2006, the PBC authorized the China Foreign Exchange Trading Center interbank foreign exchange market announced central parity of RMB exchange rate: 1 U.S. dollar against 7.8087 yuan, breaking the 7.81 mark an integer, once again hit a new high since the exchange rate reform. From the trend point of view, the yuan continues to appreciate the possibility of there, so the plates will continue to benefit from time to time to promote the performance-related.
The other two unified tax system, regional political and military events (such as the Middle East), the supply of the stock market expansion and capital expansion, it is also the future of Chinese A-share market will play a bigger impact to expansion, for example: According to WIND statistics, Chinese enterprises A total of 135 H-share companies. These companies have not yet part of the returnees, many have plans to return to A shares, in particular, is one of a group of blue-chip shares almost all of the landing A have strong expectations. H shares issued earlier this month when the shares paid to have developed landing A stock. Its similar to the returnees have made it clear intention of H-share companies, as well as PetroChina, China Telecom, China Ping An Bank of Communications, China Construction Bank and many other. Statistics show that in the 95's H-share companies have not yet returnees in both the total share capital of 100 billion in China Construction Bank and the ultra-Petroleum, there are a total between 10 billion and 100 billion of equity in pay between the shares of China Telecom Bank of Communications, China Shenhua, Shanghai Electric and other large listed companies. In addition, there are 20 total capital of 5 million shares under a small listed companies. But the IPO negative impact on the stock market has been lower than in the past, may contribute to the formation of the index, while the impact of most of underperformance or a flat-old company's shares continue to new lows, so the impact of a greater level of expansion is to make the market the old species of significant decline, while the level of the overall market impact is limited.
Fourth, investment strategy
Because I believe that in 2007 the market will show a pattern of large shocks, and some varieties will continue to have a good performance, and performance of a number of old stocks, especially stocks will likely continue to fall flat, so I believe that investment strategy should be placed on hold to reduce the operation, see more little move strategy.
Strategy related factors of the high points (Shanghai Composite) â—?â—?Shanghai Composite Index 2700-2800 points, 40 times the overall price-earnings ratio of about â—?Chinese New Year or the introduction of stock index futures before and after the expansion of new shares â—?â—?â—?Other â—?revaluation of the red phase, concerned about the broader market shares The new accounting standards benefit from the shares, mergers and acquisitions subject category a phoenix, a number of undervalued shares of industry leaders. Position 50%.
â—?down adjustment, institutional investors could be concerned about the stock index futures, the best investors with short positions, or subscription of new shares, warrants due attention. Positions below 20%.
â—?shock produced a low rise, retail investors will focus on new heavyweight, oversold the potential of the industry leading low-priced varieties, the potential of the Olympics plates in 30-60% of shares ... ... position.
Low (Shanghai Composite) ��Shanghai Composite Index 1450-1800 points, to adjust the overall price-earnings ratio is 25 times longer than 4-6 ��month changes in political and military expansion and the appreciation of the RMB �shares of stock index futures operation ��Others
