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Data:2009-12-12 2:34
Source: Tianjin Rong Zang Jing Lin
In the "2006 Shanghai index fluctuation analysis - time and space Analysis Section," we have a clear description of a "from the 2005 three-stage implicit in the movement patterns of two important factors in changes in time and space for future campaigns changes in paving the way ";" in 2005 in the three-movement patterns of these two distinct time-varying characteristics, from which factors prompt us to 2006, Hu Zhi existence of the movement patterns of the possibility of a larger trend change. "2006 year out of the magnificent new upward trend, the market opened a new chapter. This time is no doubt, however, the trend of changes in the market for us to continue to grasp the inherent time factor is the time to run the whole of 2007, trends index is not a small difficulty, but for 2005, 2006, the description of a more successful when Hu Zhi, and air trajectories, on this basis, continue to make bold attempt to run under a new trend to look at the future from this point of time trend changes in the internal market.
Recalling the year 2006 on the basis of the trend, from the time running trajectory and price of the stock in 2007 to analyze fluctuation test. As judged convenient, are targets for the analysis of the Shanghai Composite.
January 2006 to 1163.87 points, opened the first trading day low of 1161.91 points, become the lowest point of the year, only two points less than the small feet Tuoqi 1511.6 points throughout the year as long as the entity Danian Yang Xian, to 2675.47 points, closed years. Another feast for the eyes of people out of the year's unilateral increase in band, years, only 23.43 points on the shadow line. Hu Zhi trend on the movement patterns of change to be fully verified.
While the upward trend in this one-way movement patterns are not similar to the 2005 three-stage implicit in the movement patterns of the two factors as important and obvious change, but in this one-way movement patterns can still see elements of continuity and change, has been diluted by the continuing trend of factors and new trends brought about by new factors, will participate in the future spatial and temporal changes in the movement, and clear out the main factors:
1, in 2006, one-way trend of movement, can be divided into three phases, which has become increasingly June 14 low of 1512.52 points, the low trend for the whole year the most obvious time to switch to a low point. It comes from the Shanghai index has been stable since the existence of a low cycle. Although its nature has been a trend to play down markedly, but the Shanghai Composite Index was up and running to the end, does not appear on-line can be seen during low switch point, indicating that the factors that will shape the future of space and time is running low, plays an important role in Turning Point, an important role in low-time Turning Point has not flagged.
2, since the 998.22-point rise in the time band the apparent symmetry of the cycle changes, one, two were demonstrated between the low rise a long time, down time is short, high, low are showing upward movement of the bull market cycle, characterized by . The next time, form and structure will be completely free of the shackles of 2245 points, down band, while the bull market cycle characteristics in order to run. Price of 998.22 points, ahead of time, there emerged a trend change in the characteristics of the time transfer point located at the time of the two low cycles, there are markedly more visible nature of the transformation in one or two low cycle time, appear in the strong Weak changes will in the future in space, form and structure more clearly.
2006 one-way trend in the movement patterns of the time-varying characteristics of confirmed and supported in 2005, two distinct time-varying characteristics, from the factors that prompt us to shape the 2007 Hu Zhi campaign will continue this trend and the trend in construction part of a structure.
A, a, the Shanghai index exists a large three-year high point of the cycle: From May 1992 see the first high point of 1429.01 points, the three-year high of all time, the emergence of a significant transfer point: including the 1992 in May of 1429.01 points, 926.41 points in May 1995, in June 1998 to 1422.97 points, in June 2001 to 2245.43 points, in April 2004 to 1783.00 points were separated by 36 months, 37 months, 36 months, 34 months, The next time the loop point in 2007 around March. In the first half of 2007 marked the time of transfer points, transfer points, its a highly markedly, in theory, the time switch to generate high point will be an important transfer point low time there, would there be completely visible breakthrough. As the time to switch from a low point of the time cycle of June 14, 2006 time gaps close to a secondary low cycle time, cycle, from 998.22 points, guided by the longer-term cycle of the next point a short distance, so The high point of time, the role of transfer trends will also be diluted, during the performance of a typical space-time movement forms a strong shock.
b, to another high of 1510 points, Hu Zhi starting in mind that in Hu Zhi 1, 2 high of a transaction between a cycle of years or so, during which produces high transfer points have a certain resistance to the role of Hu Zhi . Of which:
June 2001 2245.43 points and 1748.89 points in June 2002 away from 51 weeks;
June 2002 1748.89 points and 1649.60 points in April 2003 away from 40 weeks;
April 2003 1649.60 points and 1783.00 points in April 2004 away from 49 weeks;
April 2004 1783.00 points and 1328.53 points, in February 2005 away from 44 weeks;
February 2005 1328.53 points and 1308.18 points in March 2006 away from 50 weeks;
Combination of a smaller unit of time and will run until the end of January 2007 in early February, and the other since 1783, since the low point of a cycle of high-level there is a mean of 22 weeks of high cycle, the next point is also located in the time period. Subject to multiple high time for the chain effect, expressed in pairs of high sensitivity, and its time to switch the reliability of a very strong point.
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B, a, in the low cycle, the Shanghai Composite Index has been the existence of a stable 18-21 months of a low cycle, the cycle to run to the 10th cycle in the cycle on the apparent symmetry changes in the two low configuration through a symmetric cycle to complete the bear market cycle by cycle as the bull market over, starting with the end of the tenth cycle showed low upward movement pattern. Hu Zhi is currently running at the starting point for the June 14, 2006 the 11th cycle, due to Hu Zhi appeared at the low point after the completion of transfer of the aforementioned high-point cycle in the two major high points, 1783 points, 2245 points beyond. In theory the time point of 1512 produced only an upward trend in the future have been the end of the next break possible. The end of the 11th cycle point first half of 2008. Theory in the cycle produced a major breakthrough in the high-point in the new cycle of operation to complete. 2007 changes may arise as a starting point is 998 points, a new low of the production cycle time, which did not produce the original cycle of a subversive role, but obviously markedly enhanced, the time of the original chain is still time to cyclic chain variation, guided from the low point of time cycle of the first quarter of 2007 the beginning of the end of the second quarter. Since the beginning of an end of the quarter in the second quarter as high and low intensity cycle occurs, the time there is a high structure, low density frequent form of the more complex space-time possibilities.b, the Shanghai index fell 2245.43 points, the running band in the loop switch at the point-point overlap, constitutes a decline in the importance of the two cycles, in the new upward trend in the cycle continues to run:
January 2002 1339.20 points - in January 2003 1311.68 points, 46 weeks apart
January 2003 1311.68 points - in November 2003 1307.39 points, 42 weeks apart
November 2003 1307.39 points - in September 2004 1259.43 points, 42 weeks apart
September 2004 1259.43 points - in July 2005 1004.08 points, 40 weeks apart
July 2005 1004.08 points - June 2006 1512.05 points away from 45 weeks
In accordance with its average 43 weeks, combined with a smaller time units, and the next point will run until April, when the end of the area, taking into account 998 points and 1004 points, while the existence makes the upward trend in their support, there are low turn-point performance for dual-transfer-point movement, and A Lane described the first quarter of 2007, the beginning of the end of the second quarter, there are structural high and low density appears the possibility of more complex space-time structure is consistent.
Hu Zhi-year volatility from changes over the years to see, after the 1991 and 1992, after the unusual fluctuations, since 1993, has been following the 400 points to 800 points in the context of change, of which 1998 and 2003 have all occurred less than 400 spots in 2005, is the third time once again below the 400-point change in the annual volatility of the year in 2006 to enlarge the case again exception of its reach 1537 points, annual maximum fluctuation from the trend in terms of the changes, there is the 800 point down trend.
Comprehensive consideration first half of 2007 high, low time of change, 2007 will be in 2006 unilaterally further confirmation and continuation of the trend, but the clear distinction between the unilateral trend in 2006, the index fluctuation range has narrowed compared with 2006, but the will continue to maintain 800 - to 1,200 of the larger fluctuations. Annual index of amplitude changes in 50 - 60%, the index fluctuation range 2300 - 3600 range plus or minus 50 points in the fluctuations in the first quarter in late January early February, late March early April at the same time show high switch point role of the very likely, refer to the time change-point change in low, high and low turn dense spots appeared in the first quarter, the beginning of the end of the second quarter, there are structural high and low density appears more complex space-time possibilities. Another special emphasis is this: during this time, such as 998 points, to strengthen the role of guided cycle, then, after a complex form of unilateral trend more apparent. Otherwise, the high transfer point formed by a real breakthrough in time will be stretched over such a case, during which more complex form and structure, while the second quarter in July before and after the end of the possibility of complex structures. Time to switch point of the year a higher concentration in April, a single month in November will have a severe shock to the situation. Time-varying sensitivity for late January early February, late March early April, late April this year will easily lead to an important high and low points.
Since the life time characteristics of the existence of variability, so the above analysis, the time to switch point of the presence of high and low variability; to extend or shorten the period of time the possibility of changes in light of specific conditions will be more specific analysis.
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