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Data:2009-12-12 2:34
â–?Bandung Guangzhou
In 2007 will further extend the pattern of the structural bull market, a number of operating conditions of no obvious improvement, the lack of performance support or do not have good growth of listed companies will continue to be marginalized by the market. The line with the state industrial policy and national innovation strategy that represents the future development of the economic structure of listed companies leading the industry and certainly will continue to grow. Thus, the real representatives of the national economy to develop "core blue chip" must be able to share "the rise of great powers," the feast, will continue to be an active pursuit of the mainstream funds.
Quotes from the market mainstream context and the development of the main line starting, I believe that the upcoming in 2007, investors could focus around four main thread tap market opportunities. First, the RMB appreciation thread. RMB appreciation is a major bull run through the current round of a main line. From the dynamic point of view, the future and long-term trend of the RMB exchange rate depends largely on the changes in the international balance of payments surplus. According to statistics, the total trade surplus this year will exceed 150 billion U.S. dollars, an increase of up to 47.3%. RMB appreciation is a long-term trends, studies have shown that in the next period of time, the RMB has appreciated against the U.S. dollar exchange rate of approximately 3% -5%, it is expected within 3-5 years, the RMB against the U.S. dollar may reach 7 yuan to the dollar approximately level. According to the overseas offer, the RMB against the U.S. dollar in 2007 will rise 5.5% over year-end is expected to exceed 7.35 mark. Will fully enhance the appreciation of the renminbi to the value of yuan-denominated assets such as real estate owned assets, the yuan, with the coal mine of resources, financial resources and ownership of real estate commercial enterprises; exchange rate is relatively high debt firms such as aviation, trade, and imports a higher proportion of raw materials or components industries such as paper, steel, cars, petrochemicals, aviation and so on.
Second, the core of blue-chip sector will continue to be the main battlefield game. Stock index futures and the introduction of margin trading to enhance the core blue-chip (weight value species) of liquidity, capital investment approach into the mainstream and become the backbone of the development of the leading Quotes. From the last phase of the market characteristics of view, value-weighted index rose varieties have become the accelerator. Shanghai's total market capitalization of more than 100 billion market, stocks include Industrial and Commercial Bank of China, Bank of China, Sinopec, Baosteel, China Merchants Bank, the Datong-Qinhuangdao railway, the Port Group, Minsheng Bank and others. The total market value of more than 50 billion, including China Unicom, Guangzhou-Shenzhen Railway, Datang Power, China's Air China, Yangtze Power, Wuliangye, Angang Steel Company Limited, TISCO stainless steel and so on. It is worth recalling that, in addition to other core blue-chip, performance steady growth, with second-line blue-chip valuation advantage is also faced with the chance of their potential for species mainly concentrated in airports, ports and rail shipping, highway and other transportation plate and energy coal, iron and steel, electric power and other industries.
Again, in 2007 growth in the value of species will face a major opportunity. Good variety of growth tend to be concentrated in the consumer and consumer upgrades (food and beverage, wine, medicine, automobile, tourism, etc.) industry, the national independent innovation strategy themes (to benefit from the development of independent innovation, the industry include: advanced manufacturing, energy-saving environmental protection, rail transportation, 3G-building, and aerospace and defense industry) and so on. In 2005, China's per capita GDP of 1703 U.S. dollars level, in 2010 U.S. dollars to achieve well-off standard of 2400-3000, according to the historical experience of other countries in the level of per capita GDP reached 3,000 U.S. dollars, the consumer will show a rapid expansion of demand for services, finance, insurance, tourism, culture and media, information services, medical and other consumer services industries will get broad space for development. China has identified as the national strategy of independent innovation and comprehensive building an innovation-oriented country, so the theme of independent innovation strategy will inevitably become a major market, investment focus.
Fourth, the merger and reorganization (the central enterprise integration), asset injection and the overall listing of hidden investment opportunities. I repeatedly stressed that the performance increase is the fundamental driving force of rising stock prices, while the high-quality assets into a listed company to achieve the growth performance of an important way by leaps and bounds. Since 2006, through the establishment of management stock incentives, a major shareholder orientation issuance, asset replacement, asset injection and other innovative means for listed companies to achieve sustainable development capacity. M & A, asset injection with the overall market value of listed companies re-discovery and re-creation process, and is expected to become full circulation times the market opportunities for the continued hot and where. Studies have shown that, A-share market has entered a "value into the" stage, the next three years, the market value of A-share market compound annual growth rate will reach 44%.
