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Data:2009-12-12 2:34
Guests wonderful views summary
â—?corporate earnings growth next year is still likely to exceed expectations
â—?future savings into the stock market will be on a large scale
â—?the next 2-3 years the market there is still hope for at least another doubling up
â—?finance, real estate, brand consumption, and equipment manufacturing for long-term holding
â—?callbacks are good opportunities to buy stocks
â—?Moderator: Shanghai Securities News Zhang Yongjun
â—?Interview Guests:
Zhou Chuan-root??? Guotai Fund Management Co., Ltd. Director of Research and Development
Feng Tian-ge??? Guotaijinying growth, Jinpeng Blue Chip Value Fund Manager, Cathay Pacific Airways
Rose is just a beginning
Moderator: Will Zhou optimistic about the market next year, based primarily on what is it?
Zhou Chuan-root: The main is the rapid growth of corporate profits. The stock market starting this year truly reflect the changes in the macroeconomic and corporate profits in the next 5 to 10 years is the golden age of China's economic growth, the listed company as a leading enterprise in various sectors, not only to enjoy the great economy as a whole pie bigger dividends continuously , its market share and competitive advantage will continue to increase, thus a two-way for profit growth. Next year's economic and corporate profit growth is still better than expected.
In addition, the yuan revaluation caused by abundant liquidity, institutional change and the taxation system and so the merger will also increase the valuation of corporate premium. Though the market rose more than doubled this year, but this is a long-term decline after the rehabilitation rise, so we think this is just a beginning, the future of space is also very large. Judging from past experience, H shares at about 2003 since the start of 1700 has risen four times; Dow Jones index from 1991 to 2000 rose nearly four-fold. From these data, the current rise is just a beginning.
In addition, the current valuation of the market compared with those of our all-time high, or high compared with other markets are at a low level, so this year's bull market is just the beginning of the next 2 to 3 years of market there is still hope for at least another doubled up.
Hold is the best investment strategy
Moderator: Many individual investors in the market to a high point of each one, when there will be hesitation, missed a lot of investment opportunities, I do not know you in and industry professionals to exchange when there is no such feeling?
Zhou Chuan Kan: There is this feeling, this is actually in line with market discipline. So the key is to grasp the direction of large market, if the bullish market, then select quality stock or fund, firm long-term holding, the full enjoyment of higher returns. I recommend that investors hold funds or stocks New Year, or at least can hold in March next year, usually three, in April may occur policy and market volatility at that time you can take another look.
Moderator: I read what you Strategy Report 2007, the title is called "do not need love Japanese Dongfeng very Spring next year," that is very optimistic about next year. What are you optimistic about some of the specific industry?
Zhou Chuan-Root: We think that next year there are four major investment themes, namely economic growth, structural changes in the appreciation of Renminbi revaluation of cyclical industries, tax reform. Based on these themes, we are mainly optimistic about the financial, real estate, food and beverage, steel, machinery manufacturing, retail, and transportation. From a more long-term perspective, we believe that the financial, real estate, consumer brands and technology innovation-based equipment manufacturing may be run through this a bull market from beginning to end, it should be firmly held.
