Category: Money Tips Date: 2006-03-06
Since raising the stamp duty, stumbled a bit Meng Niu, triggering stock market crash, so the market people exclaim, "28 phenomenon" turn back the stock market. There is no doubt that "28 phenomenon" theory is based on valuation theory. It is said that the valuation on the valuation from the pawn shop where the transplanted division.
In order to Tracing the source, the author and seek help from a special line of work at the pawn more than 40 years valuer Miss Song, a high degree of myopia Miss Song, are paid by a private pawn-line Employment in as the Chief Appraiser, shows a talent of Jin-Gui. I asked Miss Song: "You evaluate a pawn goods, on what basis?" Miss Song: "The first is to look at real value, first look at virtual value." I thought a hiccup Deng: "Virtual Value how I say this? "Miss Song:" The key is to use both eyes observed when the material's state of mind, if it is to underestimate those who need some money, not money, who would overestimate the number of Ji Yong. Huai-Ning is a thief, if dirty goods energetically lower prices on goods. "" Then said, "I asked:" Assessment is sometimes feel of? "" not just a feel of "Miss Song pointed to has been very prominent eyes:" Sometimes Jane really like my eyes, blind estimation. "
Blind estimate that reminds me of the valuation theory is not a "blind guess" the saying goes? Valuer's valuation theory advocates rely on are the two magic weapons: First, the financial statements of listed companies; the second is to research public companies. Look at the statements reliable? Although there are annual reports, semi-annual, quarterly are a lot of making false statements of listed companies, but an endless stream of scandals. With each instance of a listed company: report of your rope had shares in a decimal point shift would enable increased revenue by 10 times; small board of a listed real estate stocks have done very nice pre-market report, listed after the current of the prototype, on a quarterly losses. From this projection, if the virtue of statements to the valuation is not the first blind in one eye then? Look at listed companies to research, so that the beauty of difference I have also had engaged in similar acts. I do not know is Chouxi Fu, listed companies held most of the research were not welcome, not shut out, that is very colorful printed information to take more prevarication, even welcome or invited, but also nothing more than you have been invited to eat meals, travel tourism, and then brings in some of the information I want you to go glossy icing on the cake. Some studies have even behind closed doors, the information from the Internet, and F10 to download data for fund managers to write a valuation report. This research, is not another blind eye then?
Wrote this, I thought of never listening to advice and never look valuer reports the shares of stock picking altar Evergreen Warren Buffett, though he praised the controversial theory of real old man, but also a result of a lawsuit on the court, but its unique stock-picking skill, or let the world into submission. Buffett year in Hong Kong for a dollar and buy Hong Kong dollars, when CNOOC, not because the unit has impressive performance, CNOOC was a low-flow performance, the stock has continued to slump, but in fact see the value of CNOOC shares is too low, and have gone beyond the intrinsic value, while the possibility of a future international crude oil continued to rise, so quietly buying a large number of results earned hundreds of millions of Hong Kong dollars. Similarly, when the international heavy metals, a continuous fall, he had the courage to buy gold, silver. Buffett's investment in almost a missed approach, are derived from his theory of real value. In fact, Buffett's investment criteria is very simple: 1. Must be a consumer monopoly; 2. Product simple and easy to understand that prospects; 3. There is a stable operating history; 4. Operators rational, loyal, always with the interests of shareholders come first ; 5. financial stability; 6. operational efficiency, good returns; 7. less capital expenditures, free cash flow sufficient; 8. inexpensive. As the earliest advocate of value investing, I have no intention to discredit the valuation theory of value system, just want to point out its shortcomings, so that we can keep their eyes open in the valuation.
Closer to home, "28 phenomenon" will not repeat the reasons are: 1. Can be classified in the "two" blue-chip stocks are the right of the major plate, if a lone Italy will be pulled Index, is bound to have been to more intense regulation and control measures; 2. performance of listed companies to upgrade and asset injection is tradable share reform era of post-equity-value-added Shiran. It has been driven all the companies want bigger and stronger, increase stock prices, to allow the potential of non-tradable shares and large and small non-significant value can be high after reduction. Since listed companies are struggling to raise the stock price and a Bo, then the low-cost asset-injection and substantive restructuring of the company, the opportunity is larger than the high-priced blue chip stocks.
