Category: Money Tips Date: 2007-05-31
The last 3 weeks, the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets and bank stocks in the broad-market index, real estate, metal and other major tectonic plates pushing up under the continuous surge in turns, Zhou K-line for 3 consecutive weeks of Yang Xian, in November's monthly K-line is closed out of seven years, the largest On Yang K line, Shen Chengzhi, and the Shanghai Composite Index are approaching a record high point of the new century, the great bull market is in full swing.
To the market's long-term good is no doubt that the next few years will prove to be a long time to hold growth stocks, blue-chip shares, the investor is bound to be the biggest winner. Investors, the best response strategy is to continue screening, assessment of growth stocks, high-quality stocks, then buy from hold, according to market trend and the trend of individual stocks proper functioning band.
The next one or two weeks, investors may also consider an appropriate space-time point-band operation of the grounds that the broader market surge in a row, after the short-term space-time is technically facing a critical point of view this is from the wave-shaped (3) waves or (5) wave of the watershed.
First, last Friday the two cities combined turnover of 72 billion yuan for the second half of the largest single-day trading volume, while the index heavy volume stagflation, ascribed to come down, indicating broad market significantly increased short-term adjustment pressures.
Second, morphological structure: Shen Chengzhi, Shanghai Composite and SSE 50 arrived at the same time, channel rail, technical adjustments to the pressure great. As shown in drawings, a continuous long-range strike stock index nearly 4 months after the re-arrival of the channel since the middle of last year on the track, adjust the pressure to be ignored. In the channel is effectively crossing the track, you must guard against such adjustment pressures. The Shen Chengzhi chart last week, on the 5th gapped gap on the left is very likely to do a short-term nature of the gap, short-term cover can be confirmed that the formation of short-term top.
Third, technical indicators: Daily 14RSI severely overbought, in which the Shanghai Composite and SSE the top 50 with a small sign of divergence. Several important indicators of the daily, weekly line strength indices and most of the other shock indicators are overbought in a severe range (80 above), the pressure on the formation and shape "resonance."
4, wave structure: (3) waves and (5) the possibility of waves exist. Still can not be excluded (3) waves, or (5) the possibility of waves, only to confirm intraday part of the individual stocks run (3) waves, some individual stocks run (5) wave. While the next two weeks, a few key indicators can effectively track crossing the above-mentioned channels (with photos), can be used as a distinction (3) waves, or (5) wave standards. The author is currently still the preferred (5) waves, effectively crossed the track, then the choice of (3) waves.
5, the time structure: Shenzhen and Shanghai stock markets exist for a long transition period of about six months, the weekly chart point of view of about 25 weeks (with photos), which is an important inflection point next six months or so, there is often another important turning point. Since last year, about half a year cycle, turning point of this feature more obvious, therefore, in June, six months after the top point early in December. In addition, the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets marked the 10th anniversary of existence, such as the 1991 and 2001 an important key at the bottom of the top, and as important to the bottom of the 2005 and 1995 an important bottom. In December 1996 will lead to drop in mid-tape the next 12 weeks severe concussion? I believe that must be alert to that possibility.
6, foreign stock markets: Hang Seng Index and the Dow Jones index of short-term trend is not satisfactory, it may drag on the Shenzhen and Shanghai stock markets. Two indices have formed the short-term head shape, while the Hang Seng index plunged 3 percent Tuesday after sharp falls again late last Friday, nearly 300 points early this week in Shanghai and Shenzhen tape will be adversely affected,
7, comprehensive judgments: although the broader market trend is still present in the strong, but in the short-term technical features prompt us to take right after the strong surge of such a continuous vigilance. I believe that the short-term severe shocks are likely to occur early this week, if the Shanghai Composite shock breakdown last Wednesday low 1992 points, you can confirm the formation of the short-term top.
8, the operation strategy: adjust the shareholding structure, Shigekura were cut its stake to 50% or less, focusing on avoiding underperformance stocks, cap, lower, taking advantage of a rebound out. Short-term or excessive broad-market index stocks, blue chips should also be temporarily avoided. Second-tier blue chip, growth stocks can be used as short-term focus on the object, wait for an opportunity to take advantage of broader market to absorb shocks, we recommend attention to the East Group (600,811), COSCO Shipping (600,428), the Hong Kong Group (600018), China Wen media (000,793).
