Category: Money tips Release Date: 2006-06-15
Source: Xu Bin Guotai Junan
Tape Thursday morning once again a strong upside, touching the highest index to more than 2992 points from the 3000-point short of the step away. Then the future will be how to interpret Quotes tape it?
Positive fundamental factors to stimulate the broader market surge
The past two trading days, stocks have soared out of the market, a short period of four trading days, stocks rose a total of 210 points. This tape Quotes caused by hot main reason lies in the fundamentals bearish factors have been alleviated. First, in the financial side, the recent introduction of the central bank had a net delivery of funds in order to ease the peak holiday with the money, plus today's Ping An Insurance stock subscription funds reversed, the two factors combined result in Jiu Ji market funds face relatively relaxed situation. Second, the short interest rate expectations and the market gave a favorable climate of the weakening of the market's strength, fell in January CPI-led market expectations for rate hikes began to weaken, and the market news has also come to a 180-degree turn, from the previous bad flying into a bullish now frequently, we can fully feel the market to do more of the atmosphere began to rise, it is this atmosphere of rising long tape made very clear short-term strength characteristics. Finally, around the market to stabilize the domestic market strength also created a favorable market environment. Therefore, these bullish factors, stimulated by the broader market soared recently appeared in a continuous trend.
However, looking at the high above the index, I felt a little feeling of standing above the crowd. Numerous reasons for this winter have three, first, the current price-earnings ratio of the market dynamics point of view, Shanghai and Shenzhen cities has been 40 times the average PE, this has a relatively high valuation levels, and from the variety of operational point of view, Index heavyweight, blue-chip stocks, underperformance shares, a loss of shares, stocks, warrants, closed-end funds, and all other cycle of speculation, we can see broader market has accumulated a great deal of risk. Secondly, the former UBS research report published two days also shows that the current funding began to have signs of withdrawal of the Hong Kong market, the Chinese concept of equity funds suffered the second time this year, a net outflow of funds. Shows the flow of global capital is not yet very clear, therefore, we can see there is still a market capitalization of some of the hidden side of. Third, the fundamental factor is not clarified, although the CPI is easing, but the central bank to raise interest rates before the approach is to observe the operation data of 1,2 month before deciding whether or not interest rates, so the question for a rate hike we have he can not arbitrarily make up its mind round. Meanwhile, the stock re-approaching 3000 points, if there is a bubble the previous close to 3000, now the bubble still exists, so investors still need to guard against the fundamentals and the market's sudden change in public opinion, which is faced by the broader market risk factors. In addition, the funds pulled out years ago, the pressure faced by the broader market was also short-term risks. Overall, short-term although the broader market is still strong potential, but with the gradual push the index higher, investors must not be blind pursuit of high, broad market, or there are more uncertainties.
Operation still cautious
Since the tape is still at risk, then investors are still in operation on the main needs to be cautious, and must not chase the high number of short-term through a continuous rise in stock, but to select some are still in the bottom of the zones and the future of the company's growth of well - listed companies, the only way a company's share price can be relatively more resilience. Key species: China Life Insurance (601628) life insurance first unit, China's financial holding group, the largest insurance market share. The company has a huge group of China's most valuable corporate shares, with the development of capital markets, and its value will be repeated mining. Listed Ping An Insurance, after the Spring Festival is the most sensational events can be expected, with China Life plates should be fully speculation. Coupled with the CPI index published yesterday, even with interest rate expectations, but also to enhance corporate value. Currently undervalued, it is worth bargain-hunting interest.
