Category: Money tips Release Date: 2006-11-09
Source: Chen Jian, China Galaxy Securities
Broader market turmoil this week, down, after a five-day decline in more than 500 points after the index Tuesday shrugged off the beginning to the 4113 points, but rebounded significantly during the volume contraction, and showing a decreasing trend, indicating that the market sentiment began to long full tide, therefore, indexes Fanchou Thursday after 30 days moving average again diving, and stroke-day moving average breaks 5,10,20,30, Friday once again an important support for the fall of the mid-term 60-day moving average line, indicating that the medium-term adjustment trend will continue.
As the week closed out the week of overcast again, from the morphological point of view, to May 29 4335 high point and the June 20 4312 the high point of the first embryonic M-Double has been basically formed. But for now the emergence of this two-headed shape may well be deceptive ,3400-4350 cabinet shock may be the essence of the short-term does not appear broader market continued to nosedive, of course, the double-headed shape from the side further validation of the tape from the 4335 high o'clock has entered the second big wave adjustment judged (that is, since June 2005 low of 998 began the first large primary Shenglang the upside, which is subdivided into five waves upside: June 2005 low of 998 --- September 2005 of the 1223 high point of the first wave of upside, 1223 high --- in October 2005 of the 1067 low for the second wave pullback, 1067 --- February 2007 low of 3049 high upside for the third wave, 3049 high point in February 2007 --- The 2541 low for the fourth wave correction, 2541 --- May 29 low of 4335 points for the fifth wave of high upside, 4335 High Point started to enter the second big wave of adjustments).
Short and medium term, June 5 low of 3404 still has a very strong supporting role in the next stall. Because of the current restructuring is primarily directed against a low February 6 2541 --- May 29 4335 high-point of the stock market restoration, the 0.5 is taking place as the golden section point of 3438, its 0.618 taking place for the Golden Section 3226,3438 between the points and 3226 points, with strong supporting role in the next stall. Although the pre-3404 low of 3438 points, once broken up, but the final stabilized mainly by its 0.5 Golden taking place supporting role. Therefore, the 3400 points will continue to have lower support role, while the 4335 points to 3404 points, the adjustment of the beginning until the adjustment of 22%, from space and can basically meet the intermediate claims, but time is less than a month of time for space, short and medium term broad market will continue to run the 3400-4350 cabinets, which also from a low of 998 three times since the adjustment is in order to build a box to complete the practice of shocks coincide.
According to wave theory, the broader market in 4335 high the waves started to enter the second adjustment, adjust the wave of the Shanghai stock market based on past practice, the broader market may flat-shaped (A, B, C three waves) in the form to adjust. The current situation, from the May 29 start of the 4335 high of A wave to adjust a small C wave has entered a stage, the 4335 high point - June 5 3404 low of a wave of small adjustments to 3404 lows -- June 20 4312 high-point for small b wave rebound, the high point of 4312 started a small C wave adjustment, a small C wave did not rule out the objectives of the adjustment will once again test a low previous 3404 lows.
The Shanghai Composite Index Zhou K-line
MACD green column appeared, DIFF and the DEA appeared Sicha at a high level, comprehensive weakening
RSI three-lane down to the median line, will continue to be adjusted downwards
KDJKDJ break began to accelerate after the overbought line down, continue to adjust
DMIPDI, MDI opening contraction, ADX continues at a high level down, short upper hand
The Shenzhen Composite Index on K-line
MACD green column amplification, DIFF, DEA quickly down, vulnerable
RSI third-line blocked down again after a median line, there is continuing downward momentum
KDJKD continues downward, J values began to overbought, rebound power shortage
DMIPDI, MDI Sicha openings after amplification, short-dominant
