Category: Money Tips Date: 2006-10-23
Source: Shenyin Author: Xu
A slight concussion in the neckline a bit below the five trading days after the index made last Friday between the two cities counterattack force to close recover neckline. Monday, stock index Dikaigaozou continue to maintain the upward trend, closing station on the 10th line, the 30-line approximation.
Quotes for the operation, the current long-short differences remain substantial. In my opinion, first of all should adhere to the relatively large level of the top Quotes yet to appear, 1695 points, just a short-term top. This is determined by stock market reform to solve the fundamental deficiencies in the system to improve the overall quality of listed companies, the trend of RMB appreciation, China to accelerate the flow of international capital that some of the background of the decision. However, the strong fundamentals support the short-term has been troubled by a number of factors.
First of all, is the world's stock market under the weakening inflation expectations. Last week, the Fed said that inflation concerns may continue to raise interest rates tightening expectations under the panic spread in global stock markets. Last Tuesday the world's major stock markets generally fell, Japan, the Indian stock market recorded a decrease of 4% or more, to collapse categories. So far, the global gains in emerging markets so far this year has been completely lost. Weakness of the global market for the A-share market has obvious short-term adverse effects.
Second, the fund has increased the pressure surface. On the one hand, IPO restart the pace too fast, the upcoming Bank of China and other giant, not only to inadequate preparation of the formation of the psychological impact of the market, but also on the formation of substantial market funds face pressure. On the other hand, stocks share reform introduced last year, its first non-tradable shares has begun to gradually enter the circulation process, which is the secondary market funds face pressure may be even more than IPO.
Once again, the mainstream makes the stock a lack of the lack of hot spots continue to be strong supporters. Non-ferrous metal stocks, new energy stocks, shares of Sinopec and other indicators are at recent order among the mainstream market, hot apparent shortcoming. At the same time, funds and other mainstream financial situation appears relatively short-term embarrassment. On the one hand, the mainstream capital investment plans are a large number of hot money flooded, their investment behavior would not achieve market-leading role in investment philosophy; the other hand, in the face by hot money pushed up the stock as a whole, the market attractiveness decreased, the mainstream funding is difficult to discovered a new breakthrough.
Finally, in order to curb over-investment to monetary policy adjustments have also had a significant effect on the index. Monetary policy adjustments on the domestic market liquidity will be significantly affected, thus affecting the stock market in the short-term financial flows. The central bank last week announced with effect from July 5 to raise deposit reserve ratio by 0.5 percentage points, is expected to freeze 150 billion yuan of liquidity between banks, in the Monday opening of the stock when they form a more obvious impact. Look at a later stage, the adjustment of monetary policy, rhythm and specific measures, will continue to affect the stock market.
This four-fold factors, has inhibited the performance of short-term indexes. However, from technological point of view, there are signs of policy financing to support the market, after the stock broke neckline still could not confirm two-headed form, but below the neckline to form a small round-bottomed, short-term rise to the top of the neckline. Therefore, I am afraid that the fundamentals of wrestling with the short-term disturbing factors, in the role of external intervention under a short time there will not be a clear outcome of the results, stock short, or will remain near the shock on the 30th line, waiting for a breakthrough opportunity.
