Category: Money tips Release Date: 2006-12-04
Source: Xu-Yang Luo West China Securities
The Shanghai Composite Index last days in the history of the amount of 257.2 billion in the capture of 4,000 points, as in May 2006 after the blowout market, but this time the protagonist is not just A blowout shares, which includes the B shares and the volume of eruption, which stocks can be regarded as a popular upsurge. The climax of the past, the stock market is always short-lived, after the setback with a wide oscillation or down, this will be an exception?
The two possible bad
Recently Shenzhen and Shanghai stock markets continued to rise, whom the world's attention, have attention to China's stock market regulatory initiatives, the management under the heavy-handed regulation to deflate the stock market bubble, or the bubble burst on their own, thus forming two kinds of bad for the future stock market expectations. First, the management policy, regulation, the market may be re-introduced policies, including raising the deposit reserve ratio, raising interest rates, stricter limits the supply of illegal transactions and to increase the stock (such as H shares and red chips to speed up large-scale return of A shares, as well as promotion of the GEM), introduced stock index futures, etc., from the perspective of these policies, only the interest rate, introduction of stock index futures have greater lethality. However, if the deposit rate below 5%, then the stock market's attractiveness for capital will continue to be larger than the bank savings, funds from banks to the stock market phenomenon that will not stop moving. While the deposit rate to reach 5%, it must pass through several minor rate hike will raise interest rates five mid-to late cause for concern. Cycle of interest rate determined in Canada before the start of the stock market capital-driven difficult to change. The introduction of stock index futures give the short side a chance to put goods, but also to provide multiple opportunities for a major Xi Pan, the recent discussion paper on the stock index futures will take at least a month to set the tone, perhaps in early June will be gradually clear. May will be a prelude to entering the policy-sensitive period, perhaps the most spectacular moment of the stock market bubble.
Second, the bubble burst on their own. This is bound shipments from the internal pressure the stock market behavior, such as in May 2006 after the non-ferrous metal plates, etc. ascribed to drop in 2006 after the New Year's Day and other indicators of the Bank of China shares of constituent stocks of the ascribed to lower and so on, are usually accompanied by excessive profits Plate shipments arising from acts of technical adjustments. Today, Shenzhen and Shanghai stock market most popular section is the concept of brokerage stocks, which the city shares (Hai Tong Securities) up 753 percent this year, Chengdu Construction (State Golden securities) 468% and 403%, etc. EMC trust. Brokerage stocks might be a windfall profit-taking triggered the original reason for a comprehensive callback once the plate Wednesday, triggering stock index dropped more than 2% in the two cities, once the plate to continue to callback, or to suppress expression or to trigger a chain of indexes callback response , technical adjustments will lead to the bubble burst on their own, adjust the space or not less than the highest point and down 20% or more.
Ready for the drunk
Now people drink beer, like Shenzhen and Shanghai stock market has been red-faced after having started on the tipsy feeling the brain, and if it can have up action is increasing, but it seems boundless look. This is the stock market index rose nirvana, the market right now the slogan is no longer the bull market known as the elimination of 10 yuan on these stocks, but only after the impact of hundred dollars mark for the win! Maotai, Liaoning Fushun, Hudong Heavy, small commodity city, Chihong Zinc and Germanium were all completed "task." In the context of money, silly people, capital-driven stock market continues to move the peak of the backdrop of recently published data on new accounts, up to 7 million in April, May did not know whether this data is refreshed, but the cities of Shanghai and Shenzhen total number of accounts reached 93.94 million, breaking the 100 million mark for the future, just around the corner! However, the risks may outweigh the benefits at this time, the market will worry about how many new accounts do? The last follow-up of funds was kind enough to do? Once the profit plate pouring, while the weak accept funds, then change the resulting dish.
While we are all for the future of drunkenness, ready, and sober analysis of reasons for doing a good job, but as long as the glass in hand, there will inevitably be embarrassing predicament became very sick. Body Good night without incident, physical handicap of a serious illness, indicating the importance of investors to stock picking. Company fundamentals, good growth stocks, even quilt has nothing to do, only lost time does not lose money, such as financial stocks, real estate stocks. And relatively garbage stocks subject, perhaps the purpose of speculation is directed at the eradication of 10 yuan from, or directed at such and such a concept comes a time when the formation of systematic risk, these stocks often lack the midline of funds to support the market, which fell space significantly.
