Category: Money Tips Date: 2007-03-16
The problem is that the domestic stock market speculation has been relatively strong, as reflected in the valuation of the market as a whole, the minimum is 15 times the maximum is 60 times more, be volatile. In fact, the stock market is not such a big change in fundamentals. It also reflects the investors in the domestic stock market immaturity. I had the idea according to Peter Lynch, the division of domestic stocks, such as the fast-growing stocks, cycle stocks, and so ups and downs, but this division is only the investment manager to accept that ordinary investors hard to accept.
5 kinds of stock selection criteria
I am now thinking of a new five kinds of stock selection criteria, and the degree of difficulty vary. The first selection criteria is the fundamental quality of the good, are not as concerned about the stock. Of such stock option is the most relaxed, and a stock if there is new researchers to study, and you find that the stock's fundamentals really well, then you can buy, and wait for other investors found the stock is indeed a good overweight away when the stock price on the rose.
But the problem is that the bull market has been carried out to the current stage, the vast majority of stock investors has been repeated numerous excavation, that is, poor fundamentals of the stocks had already risen a lot in the selection of stocks from this I feel like a dead end. However, Hong Kong H-shares of which there are many such stocks --- for example is the Chinese dragon workers, two years ago, eight times the price-earnings ratio, growth good, no people are concerned about, then foreign investors started to pay attention, for two years on the stock price rose 10 times, and now more than 30 times price-earnings ratio.
Inclined to this standard of investors to choose stock picking good stocks is not difficult, because the standard simple key is to start an opportunity to grasp and stock holdings of mind.
Stock up on the opportunity, I think there are two considerations: one is the fundamentals, the opportunity is the performance of high-speed growth, which is a micro-level; the other is the macro level, which is likely to make changes in the macro-event in the majority of investors will quickly choose this equity investment.
Another one is the market side, that is, just a few analysts, if the research report, or you see it from the disk main body has just been overweight, this is a good investment opportunity.
The second is a fundamental change in selection criteria. The one hand, changes in stock prices reflect the changes in human nature, more reflects a fundamental change. If investors can grasp the fundamentals of listed companies, the great changes that are profitable are also enormous. However, there is a problem here is that the initial changes in a company more often than not outside investors be able to know. However, if a business changes have been identified (the main change is the management of substitutions, reorganization, business change), then you can still assess the extent of the impact on enterprises. For example, the beginning of Financial Street business change is an insider traders profits, but as long as this change can be sustained, through the rational analysis of the investor can still get "big fish" of the latter half of the second half of this profit is also very rich is the explosive weaker. Also like to replace the management of the Zhangjiang Hi-Tech, and subsequent market performance was also remarkable, and to a good trend is continuing.
Two years of such stock is hot, especially when many ST stocks, there will be a lot more than a short time up to 10 times the big Niugu, mainly because the stock tradable, enterprises are full of momentum changes in fundamentals, Management is also a rising stock stakeholders. But the search for fundamental changes in attention, than to find good stocks is not high, a lot more difficult. Investment in fundamental changes in the stock will go to research, needs and management of the exchange and see the signs of this change before it can determine whether it will rise up, as well as how high.
The above two selection criteria are relatively easy, while the second direction is the focus of the coming period.
The third standard on stock picking is not easy, I called to see on industry trends. The trend in many cases may not even listed on the company's own lack of clear understanding, such as the Yangzi Petrochemical in 2002, when the company itself did not expect that after 2003 performance will be very good, so dig out of this stock investors must be a major trend in this industry to determine very accurate.
Most investors need to keep reading on the industry study the long-term trends, such as maintenance services by reading the 3G trend research report you can choose out of the first half of Niugu Guomai technology. There is a development of the industry to read a number of changes in foreign books to read more you will have accumulated sufficient experience changes in the industry.
The fourth is the direction of the stock options is not difficult, but the timing is more difficult choice. Is a large cap fund Shigekura blue chips, most of the value of these shares have been excavated, but if you focus on these stocks, to read research reports, still derive trade benefits. These stocks are relatively safer.
The final theme is the macro-investment stock selection is very suitable for ordinary investors. As I said earlier, the domestic industry changes very quickly as investors continued to be difficult to find high-growth companies. But every few years, you can always choose from a macro point of view the past few years the most important investment themes, such as in previous years, steel petrochemical industry, because China's rapid economic growth in demand, which two years of financial and real estate, because the value of yuan revaluation. The next few years could be environmentally friendly energy. Then find the subject leader can get a very substantial holding two-year gains.
Now the best chance to find the company or a change in fundamentals, the stock, that is, I say second choice. The fourth is not bad, but relatively low earnings expectations, the first is now very difficult to find them, a third vision is very much required. Finally one can also insisted that because of financial and real estate of the stock market is far from complete.
