Category: Money tips Release Date: 2007-03-17
With the split share structure problem-solving and the overall stock market valuation levels of international integration, the stock market value of investments are growing increasingly evident that many species are already into the strategic investment zone. So, how to grasp the next six months, a year or even longer period of strategic investment opportunities?
We believe that, from the medium to long term perspective, we in the Fund's policy choices must take into account five aspects, and as far as possible from these multi-dimensional perspective to find common ground: (1) the general downward economic trends and overcapacity of listed companies increased profits and the impact of the overall market trend; (2) countries in order to avoid economic "hard landing" and taken to the hedge of a modest expansion of policies on different sectors and industries; (3) global high oil prices and energy crisis on China's economy and various industries impact and the impact of the stock market; (4) from the medium to long term trend of appreciation of the RMB exchange rate of the industrial development and the impact of market trends; (5) The split share structure reform from the pilot phase into full swing on the market. Our four-quarter or even a year or even longer have to give overall consideration to the Fund's strategic layout of the 5 aspects, while avoiding disadvantages, as much as possible to find five aspects of the intersection of the main line, as the fund's holdings, the core strategy for structural optimization.
One strategy thread: macroeconomic downlink and capacity surplus to widen the investment under the logic. National Bureau of Statistics released data show that China's economic growth has 5 consecutive quarters maintained at 9.4 to 9.5% of the level, seems to have avoided big ups and downs. But more specific breakdown of the data also show that the economic slowdown fact: by the macro-control and credit control, influence, was also a very strong domestic demand and the gradual cooling, industrial and power generation growth slows significantly. At the same time, in 2003 and 2004, a substantial increase in investment in fixed assets from the beginning of this year to gradually release capacity, weakening demand and capacity expansion of non-energy industrial goods prices have led to the trend started to turn. Domestic demand and declining prices Qu Jiang, leading to rapid deterioration of profits of industrial enterprises, the profit growth rate of more than 30% from last year's down to the current 20 percent level. Cooling of domestic demand and increased competition forced the companies to the international market to find a way out, showing the proportion of GDP, foreign trade surplus increased substantially.
Although the current cycle of economic fundamentals more healthy than before and after 1995, including corporate profitability, the domestic financial environment and the world economic environment, and therefore the process of the economic slowdown may be more moderate, but the downward trend is determined, in particular, Taking into account the current high oil prices, global imbalances and other problems, research institutions, in amending the original too pessimistic growth forecasts for 2005 also on the economic slowdown in 2006, the prospects for consensus.
Thus, in terms of investment options, only those with high barriers to entry, not subject to the impact of excess capacity, or have obvious advantages of resource elements, to achieve steady growth in performance of strategic enterprises are worth holding.
Strategy of the two main lines: a modest expansion of the hedge of economic policies on the impact of different trades and industries. We are from the region's economic growth and industry growth of investment in the data seems to be some scattered evidence that the mining, energy, railways, accelerated investment in equipment manufacturing and other industries, while the Northeast, Inner Mongolia, Tibet and other neighboring provinces in economic growth are also the first two quarters of this year GDP Growth accelerated to a few regions. In these areas and accelerated growth of the industry in line with the Government to address energy issues and the problems of uneven regional development purposes, or perhaps to support the government initiative to control the outcome. Therefore, we can find those likely to be government support for industries and regions, from which to explore investment opportunities.
The national policy of expansion of these industries in the broad prospects for future development, combined with recent "Eleventh Five-Year" development planning proposals, specifically the main focus are: (1) Equipment Manufacturing (2) energy and new alternative energy industry (3 ) Railway construction and other transportation (4), network equipment investment, long-distance transport and electricity (5) save energy and conserve resources industry (6) independent innovation, technological progress into the international high-end industries (such as TD-SCDMA, etc.) .
Strategy of the three main lines: high oil prices and investment under the logic of the energy crisis. Oil prices remain high, the overall negative macroeconomic and stock markets, but oil production and related industries will directly benefit, including: oil production enterprises, such as: CNPC, Sinopec; oil exploration services, such as: Offshore Oil Engineering ; oil exploration equipment manufacturing enterprises, such as: oil Ji Cai, Jiang drilling stake. At the same time, high oil prices and the effects of radiation will also promote the development of concepts related to alternative energy sources, specifically including: coal, energy, and coal to oil technology development;, hydropower energy development; nuclear energy development and its related equipment, etc.; Solar and wind energy industries; bio-energy sources (ethanol, gasoline, corn ethanol) in development speed; natural gas energy.
And should therefore be optimistic about the current price is still subject to government control of energy, resources companies, including refined oil, natural gas pricing reforms, tariff reform; environmental opportunities of these companies are faced with.
Strategy of the four main lines: the exchange rate appreciation against the backdrop of strategic choice. In late July the RMB exchange rate adjustment is not very big, but it widened the field of vision of 10 years to examine the beginning of the process of currency appreciation, long-term look at the impact of China's economic structure is far greater than the short-term, we should be investing in the depth of concern:
--- Appreciation of history is the history of the great development of the financial industry, so the financial sector, including banking, securities and insurance we should be a strategic concern.
--- Has strong barriers to entry of the basic industries, resources, goods, industry and real estate industry and other service industries is vast, and the development prospects of these industries to better prospects than the average manufacturing industry.
--- Among the manufacturing industries to accelerate the appreciation of the integration and survival of the fittest, only the best in the industry can do larger and stronger enterprise ultimately, general business may eventually attributed to extinction. Investment in the manufacturing sector must choose the best business investment over the long term, preferring to hold good with the price of mediocre companies, they do not hold the price of good corporate mediocrity, which is the value of investment in long-term profitability of the Road.
Strategy of the five main lines:-tradable share reform in full swing from the pilot after the shift of investment logic. We believe that the future strategy of the fund is above the five main lines to find common ground among them, looking for a strategic investment opportunities.
