Category: Money tips Release Date: 2006-10-03
Source: GF Securities author: Zhu Zhe
Last week, Shanghai and Shenzhen consecutive down movements of the Su Liang, Hu Zhi Qian Liu integer breakdown of customs, Shenzhen component index was also supported by the breakdown of the half-line; from Daily portfolio point of view, Shenzhen component index closed up more eight Lianyin portfolio, showing that Kongfangliliang occupy a distinct advantage, and led the development of short-term Quotes. Then, after eight Lianyin combinations turn the stock market go from here then?
Short-term rebound in pregnant
Shanghai market performance last week, slightly stronger than some, and many investors are accustomed to when the market judged Shanghai Composite index as the subject, in this we have to benchmark Shanghai Composite Index for analysis. Huzhimogao 1757-point plunge in future after a concussion, while last week's market is more that there is a speed adjustment of posture, from the start to stage a high point, as of last Friday, Hu Zhi adjusted to reach 187 points, while if we consider to the Bank of China, Datong-Qinhuangdao Railway and other major blue chips listed on the "cultivate" factors, Hu Zhi recently dropped more than 200 points, or more than 10%, most of the decline in stocks is far more than a year's decline. Thus, in severe oversold, the market rebound that there are some requirements, and may occur in the week a certain extent the rally.
Rebound effort restricted
Although there are some broad market rebound in demand, but it is difficult to demonstrate a strong rebound in the intensity, it is mainly the recent Quotes There are many constraints due to:
First, macroeconomic regulation and control further. Shenzhen and Shanghai stock market is not out of policy, the city tied to a large extent influenced by the policy trends. Regulation of the current policy intention has been further clear: July 22, the central bank announced that from August 15 onwards, a further rise in deposit reserve ratio by 0.5 percentage point to 8.50%, which is the second time the central bank raised short-term reserve ratio; 7 24, six ministries jointly issued "on the standard real estate market access and foreign investment management advice," completely regulate the real estate market, foreign capital access and management; July 25, President character name of the request to continue to strengthen macro-control to curb the economic rapid growth; July 26, the State Council held a national party and government leaders to participate in provincial level or above television and telephone conference, the characters name of the Prime Minister requested that curb the excessive growth of investment, strengthen regulation and control of real estate, to prevent the economy from growing too fast overheating; July 26, the National Tax Administration announced that starting from August 1, for some second-hand house trading profits, personal income tax paid by 20% ... ... Some experts believe that China's economy entered the second since 2004, "overheating period. " May macroeconomic data clearly show signs of overheating in fixed assets investment, the trade surplus reached a new level, money supply and the rapid increase in credit growth exceeded targets, while the various types of price index (including producer prices and consumer prices) there is a clear rebound. Such evidence raises concerns about management, subsequently issued a series of control measures, significant investment in production management, compression and control the size of the credit attitude was firm. Some experts believe that if the relevant policies have failed to achieve the desired regulatory effect, the scale of fixed asset investment and credit growth rate failed to fall back to regulators approved the scope, does not exclude other interested parties to further introduction of the possibility of tightening macro-control measures, thus investment There will also be felt more or less pressure in this respect.
Second, the expansion pressure is still not small. Last week, Shanghai and Shenzhen have Poly Real Estate, Datong-Qinhuangdao railway, Hengdian East magnetic, source of science and technology five days landed stock market shares, there are many companies online distribution, and Air China, another large-cap stocks will soon also issued new shares of the expansion the speed is faster. In addition, we also noted that August is a "small non-" the size of the peak period during the year thaw, thaw the company had reached 31 companies, unfreezing the size of more than 30 billion yuan, of which less than 5% stake in the original non-tradable shareholders ( the so-called "small non-") to the size reduction of up to 25.0 billion. The next year and a half "small non-" the size of total holdings to about the size of the total reduction to about 70%, insiders believe that this would constitute a "stock expansion," a major impact on the power. Some organizations also face the second half of the funds to conduct a simple analysis, that the overt and covert expansion of expansion pressure on the market, capital supply situation constitutes a challenge, which is no doubt a certain short-term market funds face pressure.
Third, the performance of stock price shocks triggered. The level of market valuation should reflect the expected growth, high growth potential should be given a high valuation, but in emerging markets, valuation and comparison of growth, some consider that the A shares of the next two years, growth has been more difficult to support the current estimate the value of the level of short-term valuation of the pressure. In fact, in August will enter a period of mid-year report focused on the disclosure of listed company performance factors will lead to price repositioning. Data show that the medium-term performance of listed companies, and no clear signs of improvement. For a long time, restricted the majority of the factors that enhance the performance of listed companies is the company's system-level defects, share-trading solution to the problem, despite removing this defect, but after all, time is limited. Corporate interests and the improvement of the mechanism will be a long-term process, the short term, the acceleration of the performance of listed companies to disclose would trigger a price shock.
The overall pattern of the maintenance of shock
Through the above analysis we believe that short-term broad market through the continuous adjustment, its bounce pregnant with certain requirements, but also because of the existence of multiple development Quotes variables, will constrain efforts to short-term rebound Quotes. Thus, the market's short-term rebound is to provide investors with an opportunity to trim rallies, we estimate that a rebound in the short term Huzhi height is difficult to go beyond 1630 points.
In fact, the short-term expectations of capital in the market is relatively clear, that is the pattern of Quotes has entered a stage of adjustment, both in time and space point of view or perspective, the short-term adjustments are not sufficient, it is estimated will remain relatively recently adjust the pattern, or even three-quarter will be maintained throughout the consolidation trend, Hu Zhi Sengo integral may also be tested off the support, which investors should have a certain psychological expectations.
