Category: Money tips Release Date: 2006-11-13
Source: Guangzhou Bandung
Abstract: In the money supply sufficient to stimulate rapid economic development under the impetus, A shares will continue to take the cattle. However, this does not mean that the development of the smooth sailing of the bull market.
During the currency appreciation to stimulate rapid economic growth and a large number of state-owned enterprises driven by such factors as reorganization of assets, A shares will continue to take the cattle. However, this does not mean that fast on the smooth development of cattle. We should say that the current market there are still some worries that may cause a temporary slowdown in the pace of the bull market run. More important is whether the funds transfer in the excuse is used to store, stage direction of development will be the mainstream part of the change will not occur, but is to determine the profit-key.
1, the management will make A shares of mad cow repeat itself?
From a policy intended to run, develop and expand the capital market is the main tone, but it is not in line with the management of cattle quickly intentions.
1, A shares to reproduce the mad cow symptoms
Currently promoting the A-share Index rose is the main financial, real estate, coal, steel plate mainly blue-chip, because these plates a great impact on the index, which continued to drive the market Zhangsheng entirely possible to return to mad cow.
From the outside the popular point of view, the enthusiasm of investors enter the market began to rise. Stock Exchange data showed this week, a new A-share accounts at over 10 million, a record high this month after month, day new A-share accounts were hovering below 100,000. Admission to the ordinary investor enthusiasm to improve the same time, the majority of institutional investors remain optimistic about the second half of market reports.
On the whole, it seems crazy bull market rising again to reproduce.
2, development and control is a combination of management's policy intention
Policy intent should be to harness the development and growth of the stock market to increase the proportion of direct financing, to ease and defuse the problem of excess liquidity, while addressing the issue of restructuring of state-owned assets, of which there are quite a number, such as social security funds and the financial difficulties of the problems through the development of the stock market to digest. Even if handled well, then the resource allocation function of capital markets could also greatly facilitate the development of the real economy. From this point of view, the stock market long-term sustainable development is consistent with the primary intention of management is to solve the current economic problems many of the key is that it is part of the strategic level.
However, if the pace of development control of the stock market is not good, is easy to appear similar to Japan, Taiwan, the stock market bubble of the currency appreciation that during the flying state of great vulnerability to economic development, which is tolerated by management.
Therefore, in controlling the pace of development in the context of the stock market, which is based on the current realities of the optimal choice. Fundamentally speaking, the development is the main tone, but if overheated, then you need to be controlled.
2, A bad really do not share it?
It should be said, even after pre-market shares of blind madness sensation in the subject of speculation to investigate and clean up, the market has already priced in some of the instability. But there is still some hidden negative factors, the index futures, funds transfer positions behavior could also result in the broad market shocks. The main keynote in the development of the next bull market, A shares are not entirely a negative development of the shadow of the.
1, the index futures
This column pointed out that the introduction of index futures, the time is drawing near. The stage of overheating in the stock market if the launch of index futures, management's intention is no doubt weighed on the market over the non-rational atmosphere.
2, funds transfer positions Behavior
The main market rallied round to do their authors no doubt that the beginning of the Fund. However, according to statistics, the fund transfer in the near future positions of the movements are more frequent, it is not meant to change the pattern of investment funds it? Even the mainstream such as the real estate section, the Fund is also a degree of adjustment is putting out into the selective purchase of part of the species.
The Fund's transfer positions, will conduct rapid advance of the current bull market impact.
3, long bull without taking into account, but the fast changing cattle
Appreciation of the renminbi in the context of rapid economic growth, restructuring of the central enterprises to support long-term bull market remains the main driving force of development. However, the management will not overheat on the momentum of the bull market turned a blind eye, during which various types of control measures may be taken. Although we believe that these measures can not reverse the bull market in the main direction of development, but it will undoubtedly bring about the market turbulence and the impact of their short-term pattern, which may lead to market more twists and turns up the pace and complexity, which is that investors need to be aware of the .
Therefore, the long-term bull market in the direction of development is an objective supported by the laws of the market, and difficult to change. However, various types of control measures may be introduced to the market impact, but also need a certain amount of psychological preparation, and to a more accurate look at market development.
3, the main problem - beware of changes in the main hot spots
In the long-term bull market, holders of the strategy will naturally bring huge benefits to investors. But the future with the best growth stocks exactly what the market withstand the test phase of control, will not occur phased transfer of the main hotspots, the Fund's transfer positions whether they go in out?
In fact, we believe that in the current round Quotes of the development process of the main attack has been featuring some of the lack of blue chips continued upside momentum, while only part of the full benefit from the rapid economic growth and asset integration of home loans to borrowers before they have the real potential of the long-term upward .
