Category: Money tips Release Date: 2007-07-29
Source: Guangzhou Bandung
Abstract: This is a market rebound in the internal factors and external factors resonance caused by a rebound after the critical follow-up to trend, we need an objective analysis.
Game Analysis:
First, the game between the market and policy process:
1) The management of clever manufacturing rebound pattern: Today we bundle the rebound Fundamental analysis is the use of policy management to create, coupled with the impulse of self-help resources caused by the venue. This is the conscious management of drainage due to the market, but also the main markets and the management of game results. What is the management of the market turn on the water? As the saying goes with people to facilitate their own convenience. On management's current water distribution to the market is actually a compromise of some interest groups, is temporary in nature. First, a compromise is the brokerage system. Tractors began a thorough investigation because the current account, which is a direct threat to the fundamental interests of the emerging market forces; and time is very tight, is said to coercive measures to be taken later this month. Therefore, the system must be self-employed business broker the necessary adjustments, there must be a local broker a peaceful transition to a market environment; while the big moneybags Huijin brokerage company at this critical moment out of his hand, Sasa water is perfectly justified. Second, management needs to compromise on the part of the big interest groups, they are localized around the market trend. Yesterday's paper, column analysis, management initiative in the second quarter stuck with part of the fund and insurance, then the background for this part of the funds can not be completely Guanmendagou. Therefore, this part of the funds also require an opportunity to leave. Some analysts believe that today's rebound is because the TPO due to downsizing of Air China, it was only skin-deep. This is tricky, Air China to play a private placement listing will not worse than before the downsizing, this is only the cat is called a political tool microphone.
2) The big rebound after the operation strategy: Now that we understand the management's short-term intentions, then respond to the manipulator can be worked out plan. First, we must understand that the issue of new shares will be determined, and this is the most important political task. Even if the buffer management to the market at the most a week, that is a high burn incense. So, today's start to next Friday should be a vacuum of new shares, but it's out of the other macro-tightening policy during the SFC has no way to do. This determines that the market opportunity for nearly a week and a half of speculation. Second, during cultivation in the market, big money is definitely not operated since the management of the current index is still not recognize harsh, otherwise, is today launching Quotes of the invisible hand of the market. However, the mainstream of today's small-cap stocks proved that hot money is only the initiative of the blind spot of arbitrage operations are relatively more skill, but also formed a pack of wolves effect Bale. Thirdly, that there is an emerging market phenomenon, it is because of brokerage accounts of agonizing on the tractor and part of the interests of capital flight and will lead to disk appear larger volume, resulting in a market increment, the index of red false impression of small-scale income. Assumption of public opinion with the indicator unit conducting a feint, it is easy to confuse the investors. At this time the recommendations of operational practices would be more appropriate short-term operation.
Second, the main money game:
Today's rebound is the management's conscious drainage due to the part of the interest groups. Among them, the emerging brokerage is a major support for high-level object; another part of the second quarter of lock-Social Security and investment funds also need a short-term partial exit opportunity. And today the market spread Huijin shot today, but also, and to protect the broker. Awareness of the current management has to create a vacuum in the short-term IPO period to account for the brokerage clearing tractor spare time, so the management is bound to the macro-policy and on the stock market in view of the policy for the time being compromised. By then, the use of indicators of stock to help some interest groups, the probability of withdrawal significantly. Assessment of the market in the capital and small game will start in retail. Because brokerage and part of the fund will be to enter a market and watching the main. Not rule out the cultivation stage, the possibility of intensified pace of new share issuance,
Third, among the small and medium retail Game:
Currently small retail operations more difficult, the proposed subscription of new shares participate in a market or control a good position
Disk X-ray ---- currently on the market access policy, the default period ----- cultivation is estimated the market this week and next week will enter a relatively stable period of decline in the amendment.
Market Analysis of Multi-cycle resonance point ---
This week, the opportunity to Plate: Small and low-cost opportunity to plate a band at the end of July ---- this column began advocating this point of view, this view will be continued until the end of the adjustment period
Market Risk point: At present, the fund because the new policy, they began to lighten up a new activity, it is proposed that the fund Shigekura away from the plate, rational investors pay more attention to QFII holdings, protection measures: It is recommended to strictly control the position to participate in off-IPO were risk-free arbitrage.
