Category: Money Tips Date: 2007-08-06
Last week, real estate shares led the gains, the market become more optimistic, but the broader market fell last week, investors began to pessimistic. This reflects the market's impatience psychology, Beijing's investment community has begun to see more and to see a sharp controversy empty.
There are grounds for pessimism pessimist
A pessimistic tone has the following reasons: from the international economic front, investors began to worry about the fourth quarter of the U.S. economic recession, international demand Buxing Liao, China's economy how to do? From the domestic economic perspective, the real economy in recent months has begun to decline, but the macro-control has not ended. From a market point of view, the first half of investors have been lucrative, and now the market sideways for a long time, recently by investors to make money is very difficult, are more confused, this is not a good thing. From the chips the supply side, "small non-" to continue a large number of listed and a large number of new shares issued, the future market prospects are not good. Change from a system point of view, a significant appreciation of the yuan could not be sustained, it will not, as the year in Japan and China Taiwan market, as there was an outbreak of the great bull market, while the market system changes, such as the introduction of stock index futures, and so there is no timetable.
However, if the pessimism and confusion of the argument is correct, then we are confronted by a matter of principle, one major problem --- not the bull market is still in the end, if the pessimistic argument is correct, next year, the market will fall 1,000 points in.
Optimists have many reasons to do more
Face the same problem, optimistic investors believe that the slow appreciation of the yuan also reduced the financial risks, the rise in the economy and the stock market more sustainable. Market has been sideways, and now changing hands so high, that is, not fall, but also reflect the inherent strength and capital adequacy. Optimistic investors even think that there are many pessimistic investors is a good thing in itself. As for the macro economy, optimistic investors that the U.S. economic slowdown, but no recession, while other Asian countries began to increase credit growth, you can also create new demand. China itself is also a great demand, such as 3G, digital television, railway, power generation, rural development, consumer upgrades, military, new energy, etc., which for the market to create a lot of investment themes, and has a strong sustainability.
The index in the current case of the lack of opportunities for profit, pessimistic and optimistic investors in the balance of power factions, violent confrontation, there are huge differences between the views, reflecting the market balance and confused. But I think it is a systemic bull market opportunity, but the first face of a cyclical bear market began.
Is a structural opportunity for short-term
Core of the problem is that we can not predict the cyclical bear market adjustment and time, in general, the adjustment is large, then 3 months is enough, such as the Hong Kong market in 2004; if the adjustment is not, or time will be extended, Maybe 5-9 months is possible, depending on the intensity of systemic support the bull market and a new positive role. If in the future there are new good, multiple factors, the same benefits, the market will continue upward, but it seems now more than a lack of opportunity for multiple benefits, so the choice of the future market is more likely to continue sideways, but will be more volatile.
Opportunity in recent months, mainly structural. The recent rise can be seen some signs of structural opportunities, one is the Olympic theme, the main plate and the Beijing tourism including hotels plate; an appreciation of the renminbi is the main theme of including real estate sections and air plate; another new demand made by the Government is also the layout should be the theme of next year, including digital TV, aerospace industry, machinery manufacturing, railways, power grids and so on. (Send
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