Category: Money Tips Date: 2007-05-16
Source: Shanghai Securities News
Recently, a number of international investment bank invariably commented on the A-share market's view, they are generally bullish A-share market long-term trend, but also that the short-term need to be adjusted.
JP Morgan Chase: A shares led Asian stock markets
Department of Chairman of the China Securities JP Morgan Chase Ulrich said the mainland due to the current low deposit interest rates, coupled with still a lot of money, as well as market confidence remains strong, it is expected that the performance of A-share market will remain strong this year, faster than other parts of Asia market.
However, Jing pointed out that since A shares rally over the past year has been a very sharp, I believe the future there will be adjustments, but the magnitude will not be too large, and will not be a bear market, the risk is to be implemented on the Mainland's financial futures products will be No hype to attract investors. For China's real estate class of shares, she said that although the past 18 months, China's real estate stocks was quite strong, while the mainland has recently promulgated the policy of land acquisition value-added tax be adjusted so that real estate stocks, but the policy impact is less than expected, and because of Mainland's continued strong housing demand, coupled with rising national income, it is still optimistic about the mainland real estate market.
Deutsche Bank: short-term adjustments that may arise
Jun Ma, chief economist for Greater China at Deutsche Bank noted that while the annual stock market outlook optimistic, but may be 2 to 4 months of adjustments. In his view, first of all the regulatory departments to issue A-share market bubble in risk-tips, and regulatory departments in the A-share index rise further after the Bank to take measures to restrict the illegal flow of money A-share market and restrict the illegal flow of foreign capital A-share market.
From a macro perspective, in the first quarter, after the sharp rebound in fixed asset investment again, may lead to a new round of austerity measures, administrative and interest rates and other measures, in addition to some enterprises before and after the announcement in March of 2006 the market may be disappointed by the performance .
Ma Jun, warned a number of external environmental risk factors, first, the U.S. first-quarter economic data may be lower than expected, resulting in emerging markets and commodity markets to adjust, followed by the dollar's sharp depreciation against other major currencies, international investors to sell U.S. dollars, U.S. dollar long-term rates suddenly rise, the last is the geo-political risk.
Although the mainland A-share market last year, rose as high as 130%, but for performance this year continues to be optimistic.
Bank of America: ample funds to push up the stock market
Bank of America, Greater China, said Wang Qing, head of economic research, in 2007, China's overall economic situation is still cause for optimism, but by factors such as foreign exchange surpluses continue to increase the impact of trends in domestic asset prices is inevitable. He referred to "assets" mainly refers to the real estate and stock markets. He said that the central bank is committed to a stable exchange rate policy context, as well as strong exports growth, China will continue to accumulate large foreign exchange reserves, thus maintaining a situation of excess liquidity.
