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Data:2009-12-12 2:34
Source: Ran Lan Jin Securities
51 holiday after the first day of trading, stock in order to commence its Tiaokonggaokai speed up a market, the disk reproduction of broad based structure. Of course, the reason the stock market surged around overseas has become a direct stimulus. However, study its nature, we believe that holiday news vacuum surface, especially the bad news in a vacuum, it is easy for the investing public into a mood Kuangzao the chase, the charm of a bull market the trend has been demonstrated under the influence of self-accelerating , 4000 point is within reach. However, the calm that investors soon discovered that the vacuum in the news side, we are immediately faced with another vacuum, that is, the annual reports of listed companies to disclose quarterly exhausted after the performance into the vacuum period, we have to do more seems to be little reason one. How to look at one of the opportunities? How to avoid the possible risk? That we must do task.
The first Tuesday of the disk back to a feature: broad based. Finance, real estate, high-speed, network, front-line, second line and so there are different degrees of increase. This feature is a holiday in our view, the inevitable effect of response compression of the stock market reflected in the day, such a broad based, so that investors will try to find the pulse of the development is very difficult Quotes. Only when we Quotes from support to analyze the factors that continue to rise in support nothing less than the two kinds of factors: performance and funding. The former is higher Quotes can be a solid foundation for sustainable development of the latter Quotes guarantee. The long term, two factors will continue to the bullish stock market; but micro-analyzed, by May there were some subtle changes. Especially the performance are concerned, both reported quarterly, after the disclosure about the short-term performance factors that are not supported, and support long-term stock price performance of the bullish earnings forecast because of rising stock prices gradually be significantly diluted. At least objectively speaking, the current soaring Quotes has given way to a lot of value investors to feel uneasy, and gradually found that the original margin of safety built on the performance gradually lost its advantage, the market has gradually shifted into a mad pursuit of money for chips; As to the second support factors - money, although we know that the great strength of the bull market trend, there will be such as magnets to attract more capital into. But objectively, as the stock gradually pushed up the cost of their use of capital be gradual pile high. Also had to because the government's macro-control to prevent the additional cost of capital overlay (such as raising interest rates, etc.), so in essence, this factor has also been progressively weakened.
However, there is one very important point is that the bull market of self-acceleration, which is the strength of the trend. Current market fundamentals dominated by this force, if this trend is still time to failure, can find a new endogenous forces, then the trend will continue or be strengthened; the contrary, the trend will weaken. As for the new endogenous forces, perhaps the system changes, perhaps the theme of new growth, but it sure is definitely not the current pattern could be reflected broad based, and we look forward to following the break hot spots to more clearly understand the context.
On the whole, we believe that: Trends in stroke acceleration and mass silly behavior, he will help you complete the wish, such as breaking the 4,000 points or more. But then the risk of market volatility will gradually emerge, the Shanghai Composite will be covering the gaps left behind. The entire bull market needs a big bargaining chip oscillator to complete the re-collection of redistribution process, not what we want broad based pattern of every day. As for the operation, is even more simple: a firm belief in value investing, contraction position, the concentration of superior varieties to cope with fluctuations, and even more positive approach is the use of volatility and further to get high-quality, relatively inexpensive chips. In contrast, we should abandon the seemingly aggressive but in reality is foolish to blindly chasing hot and eager to short-term Bosha practice, in addition to unnecessarily worry away, for we do not have any help.
