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Data:2009-12-12 2:34
The Shanghai Composite Index has broken through the 1,300 point, the recent emergence of certain broader market shocks. Combination of intraday performance of individual stocks to see, and the prices of the leading real-estate stocks and non-ferrous metal plate plate adjustment appears a certain impact on investor psychology.
Turning to the real estate section, in addition to the concept of yuan revaluation, the revaluation of the real estate section is undoubtedly an important force in the continued strength. At the same time, under the new accounting system, the revaluation affects not only the type of real estate development company's value, but also affected the property's value type, that is, within the meaning of financial investment real estate. It should be said of the stock market in 2006, the investment property market performance has been relatively full, afternoon will be how to run? What investors should adopt a strategy?
The new value of the new guidelines
In our view, will officially go into effect in 2007, the new accounting standards for the investment property is a new valuation model, the formation of the plate's long-term positive.
New guidelines on the provision of real estate investment: investment in real estate refers to earn rent or capital appreciation, or both held by real estate, including leased land use rights, possession and is ready to add value to the transfer of land use rights, as well as leased buildings. In the measurement method, can use the cost model or fair value model. Also provides measurement mode, once established, can not be changed at will. Have adopted the fair value model shall be from the fair value model to a cost model. The cost from the original model to a fair value model, fair value and book value of the difference between the original adjustment of retained earnings. Use of fair value measurement, and do not invest in real estate depreciation or amortization, should be based on the balance sheet date the fair value of investment real estate based on adjust its book value, fair value and book value of the difference between the original count into current profit and loss.
From the provision is not difficult to see that if the cost from the original model to a fair value model, then the fair value of the original book value of the difference between the adjustment of retained earnings, fair value and the difference between the original book value included in current profit and loss, but also enhance the company's value. Moreover, since the use of fair value measurement, and do not invest in real estate depreciation or amortization, then the increase in current income will not be diluted future profits.
Derived from three types of enterprises have the opportunity to
For investment properties, in addition to China, International Trade, Finance Street, Lujiazui, G Baoheng, Pudong Jinqiao of rental properties such as a high proportion of companies, department stores, pharmaceutical and retail industries will also be appreciated property assets, but also the value of revaluation of the value increase.
At present most of the real estate industry analysts using the revaluation of assets methods (comparison and discounted cash flow method) on the real estate valuation of listed companies, from the theory is consistent with the fair value model. Or that the process of revaluation of property has been considered to bring the appreciation of the cash flow changes. However, in the retail business, medicine, retail and other industries, most analysts did not use such a method of valuation, that is, to some extent the old method underestimated the value of the company. Therefore, their impact is relatively great.
There is also a problem, tax issues to revaluation effects on the value of how much? We believe that the tax issues may result in the fair value model to reduce corporate value. If the company uses fair value measurement model of investment real estate, will not invest in real estate depreciation or amortization, which will increase the company's income tax, leading to decline in investment real estate cash flow, thereby reducing the value of the company. At present, for the fair value model there is no corresponding provisions of the tax issues that, if the fair value model makes the existing tax deductions, depreciation and amortization effect is gone, then the company is detrimental to shareholders.
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We also believe that even as tax revenue of factors make the use of fair value decline, but the revaluation of the increase is also consistent with the fair value.
In addition, a company partly owned relocation of urban land also has the opportunity to enjoy the revaluation. Or, subject to tax factors, some companies may be reluctant to reflect the fair value of the value increase. However, if the implementation of the relocation, especially land into other uses of the scope of the government, then the value of implicit necessarily apparent. However, these gains are reflected in more disposable income, market opportunities, also belong to trade in nature, unless the land use right transfer does not occur.
Market Operations Strategy
Front of us have been analyzed that in 2006, of the stock market, the investment property market performance has been more adequate. Therefore, investors should seize the market opportunities from the actual earnings and stock price performance in efforts to improve two aspects in isolation. In the investment strategy focus on the following three aspects:
First, the concern about potential value-added real estate company. Listed companies in the retail, real estate investment is more Commodity City, G Yimin, G Sui friendship, Yuyuan Tourist Mart and so on, invest in real estate promulgation of new accounting standards has become a catalyst for share price performance. Preliminary calculations, G Yimin of the land revaluation will increase earnings per share reached 0.06 yuan, while the Commodity City, while the value of the revaluation of the contribution to earnings per share to 0.42-0.56 yuan. Commodity City, the continued good growth, corporate governance standards, stock prices still have room for medium to long term investors can hold.
Pharmaceutical retail companies, the same medicine, Tong Junge, Shanghai Pharmaceutical companies also have their own properties, but little impact on the overall performance of the stock's performance has been more adequate. In contrast, there is still potential for the same medicine.
Second, the concern about the relocation of the concept of transactional opportunities. The concept embodied in the relocation of more one-time gains, market opportunities, also belong to trade in nature. We believe that the point of certainty may be even more important. More typical is the Hudong Heavy, Jiang'nan Heavy Industry Company and other Expo-related stocks, the relocation process of the formation of periodic opportunities.
Third, do not overlook the value of return risks. Quotes in 2006, the investment property market performance has been more fully, some individual stocks have positive advances, the proposed return of value to investors of the risks.
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