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Data:2009-12-12 2:34
Stock price up or down, to a certain extent, the distribution of chips by the Unit as well as the size of the amount of funds involved in the decision: the use of the greater amount of money, chips the more concentrated, the trend will be more stable, less susceptible to be influenced by broader market; disposable The smaller amount of money, betting slips scattered in the hands of the majority of individual investors, stock prices up rather than going down easy, difficult as large, how to estimate the number of the main positions do? The author's experience, primarily through the following three methods to determine the average sum of:
1, the author of exploration through the combat, in determining the amount of the main positions can be traded through the real-time statistics to measure the internal and external disk, the formula 1 is as follows: Buy the amount of the main day = (outer plate × 1 / 2 + trays × 1 / 10) / 2 , and then several days to accumulate, the author experience, changing hands at least before they can reach more than 100%. The time normally taken with 60-120 trading days is appropriate. Because a band makers Jiancang cycle is usually 55 days. The formula needs to target investors in the daily statistical analysis of individual stocks have taken the trouble, after a long time writer empirical statistics, high accuracy, the error rate is typically less than 10%.
2, the bottom of the cycle, obviously individual stocks, the author's experience is to the bottom of the cycle at the bottom of the daily trading volume multiplied by the running time, you can roughly estimate the amount of the dealer positions, making positions = the bottom of the cycle, × initiative to buy the amount of (regardless of the amount of retail investors to buy). The bottom of the cycle, the longer the greater the amount of the dealer position; the initiative to buy the larger the amount of the banker Xihuo more. Therefore, if investors observe the long-term sideways in the end the Ministry of stocks, usually money quietly absorbed the main force in order to reduce the cost of purchases so buy low and sell high, short-term continuous wash-off; but there is still a small part of the long-term funds to intervene. Therefore, the main period sucked the goods, at best, only reached a total turnover of about 1/3-1/4. So, ignore the initiative of individual investors bid to buy the amount of the amount of the total volume can be settled × 1 / 3 or total volume of × 1 / 4, the formula 2 is as follows: Makers positions = phase of the total volume of × 1 / 3 or 1 / 4, in order to lower the amount of precaution can confirm.
3, individual stocks traded in the low appears active, high turnover, while the share price rose less (or set standards for the stage less than 50%, preferably less than 30%) of stocks, usually making Xihuo. Greater turnover here, the more adequate the main accumulation, investors can focus on "price" being behind the "quantity" of individual stocks. Author's experience is that turnover rate of 50% as the base, each through the multiple stages, such as 2,3,4 and so on, stock prices entered a new phase, but also indicates that the dealer position changes, the use of turnover calculation formula for making positions 3: Stock Liu Tongpan × (Stock turnover period of time - the same period in broader market turnover); calculation divided by three, the real significance of this formula is the main funding to go beyond broad market turnover of bid amount (on average, to buy into the volume) is usually the amount of funds involved in the foresight generally applies to long-term decline of popular stocks. Therefore, once the main force of the popular stocks continued to recruit, we can relatively easily measured out of the hands of the main positions.
Finally, to ensure the accuracy of the calculation, the results of the above three formulas sum the average came to the conclusion is that the number of main positions.
