Category: Money Tips Date: 2006-07-07
In analyzing the market in general will always be quite natural for the next point and the first place, but the conclusions often the broader market will rise (or fall) to the certain point. In fact, with the share reform proceeded, the Shanghai index has undergone great changes, the same index point position expressed by some of the basic meaning has been completely different, such as price-earnings ratio.
According to the Shanghai index more than three years the trend of the broader market hit 1,300 points four times, the following calculation was based on the corresponding point of the price-earnings ratio:
The time the financial statements of Shanghai index price-earnings ratio price-earnings ratio of comparable
2003-11-181316 2003 mid-year report 31.75 18.93
2004-09-141300 2004 mid-year report 20.89 17.69
2005-03-081318 2004 Annual 20.76 17.75
2006-03-101306 2005 mid-year report 15.50 15.50
Where is the comparable price-earnings ratio used in the calculation of all of the 2005 mid-year report.
The above statistics, with a 1300-point, but there is a clear difference in price-earnings ratio, especially the most recent and last year's time. Obviously, this year's 1300 price-earnings ratio is the lowest one, but also with the previous year (2005) 1318 points, down 2.25 compared to earnings ratio, decreased by 12.68%.
Are discussing now last year and the year 1300 point location differences.
If all in accordance with the comparable terms of performance in 2005 mid-year report, last year and this year's 1300-point price-earnings ratio fell from 17.75 times 15.50 times. If this year's 1306-point benchmark, then the last year should be 1151 points, 1318 points (1318 × 15.50/17.75), and last year's 1318-point benchmark, then 1306 points this year should be 1496 points (1306 × 17.75/15.50 ).
Sometimes really "not do not know, be shocked" if we are now and 1318, with the last point of comparison, then, this year's tape is not really the point of the impact of last year's 1,300, but keep the impact of last year's 1500 points! .
The Shanghai Composite Index the deviation is normal because it is only a combined average of the market, and its super-sample, especially a large sample is still growing, but this time there is such a large deviation is due to stock reform of the factors that are not ex caused. The past, we often have the feeling of the Shanghai index down prices, because some heavyweights have outpaced broader market. Now the reverse is true, not ex factor has played on the Shanghai Composite Index down a role, so now the index is not unrealistically high but the virtual low.
Now that the large difference on the Shanghai Composite Index, then we do not need to over-emphasis on the Shanghai index's point and, unless they are super-short-term analysis. Of course, we can not do without Zuo Gupiao tape, so we still have to study the broader market analysis of tape and even predict the future of the broader market, but we do not need to place less emphasis on a specific point position, but should focus on analyzing the trend, in predicting trends based on the re-analysis of the time required to maintain the trend. Example, tape seems to be a turning point now, then the next trend is to continue to adjust or pick-up, adjust, then how long in three months or six months, which should be the things we care about. As for the specific point position, then let someone else analyzing bar.
If one day the share reform essentially completed, then the Shanghai index will still have a certain degree of comparability, point and have real meaning, but that time did not know that the Shanghai Composite is still not on.
