Category: Money Tips Date: 2007-07-25
Source: Guo Xiaojing, "to win the 21st Century Fund"
In the first 5 months, financial institutions, raised the deposit reserve ratio five times the rates a total of 2.5 percentage points. The stamp duty adjustment, the adjustment of the interest tax revenue and a series of heavy blows one after another attack, to do more short-term market confidence in the continued frustration.
The medium-term adjustment "an atmosphere of" policy control explosive, between the parties to power in long-short swing around. In the second half of upcoming, A-share market situation is exceptionally complex.
Close to management sources, this adjustment is far from in place. Gejia persons in domestic and international institutional investors agree that the medium-term adjustments, while a relatively optimistic to assume that in the next six months, the market may be in the shake-up.
Has been sounding the alarm
Policy control to send a warning after another, all from the first half has started and still continues.
In the first 5 months, financial institutions, raised the deposit reserve ratio five times the rates a total of 2.5 percentage points. Almost every month the central bank control policies introduced, in May at the same time introduced three successive policy measures. In the above policy, regulation and control have not curbed the market was overheated sentiment, the stamp duty was only to adjust into the foreground.
CITIC Securities which it concluded that macro-policy decision-making departments have the volatility of asset prices into the regulation of view. Monetary policy for the stock market, the impact is by no means an accidental and unexpected. "As long as asset prices can not be restored to the macro policy makers may be acceptable to a reasonable extent, we believe, in the current over-valuation of state, the more sustained rise, the more likely lead to even more stringent macro-control."
Hong-Xia Cui Huatai Securities, said the second half of macro-policy side is still "tight" putting the word, from the perspective of possible policy options, in order to further promote the foreign trade balance, suppression of high energy consumption and high pollution industry, export expansion is expected to some of the products the export tax rebate policy adjustment and export tariffs will continue. The land and credit of the gate will remain strict, especially for high energy consumption and high pollution industry, construction projects for the land and loans. Deposit reserve ratio is still some room for adjustment, while the pressure on interest rates are still lingering.
This time, the market can no longer the same as in the past the introduction of the policy turn a blind eye. Today, the market's performance was as panicky, export tax rebates, special bonds, etc. have repeatedly attracted tremendous excitement broader market.
CITIC Construction Investment Xiao-Jun Zhang, said the impact on the market from the point of view, despite the introduction of the export tax rebate policy will certainly be the performance of some listed companies have adverse effects, but this is after all, is not issued directly to the stock market regulatory policies, even if caused by market fluctuations , it will only be temporary.
The Bohai Securities Xu Lili in the second half of the macro-economic report that the Ministry of Finance intends to issue 1.55 trillion yuan special treasury bonds to buy about 200 billion U.S. dollars in foreign exchange, as the reorganization of the state foreign exchange investment company's capital sources, when the central bank liquidity pressure recovery will have abated.
"Special bond issuance amount, manner as well as national foreign exchange investment company officially launched the operation after the way the market will directly affect the supply of funds. If we adopt a distributed manner in the short term capital supply on the market, greater impact, giving the capital markets with a to the pressure. Even if these amounts released in batches, you can also slow, but effective recovery of market liquidity, thereby reducing the pressure on the central bank open market operations. "Xu said.
The question now is, the next time, the market will react to how the policy control. The view was expressed that the second half of this year, more intense policy regulation introduced the possibility or will be limited. CITIC Securities, said the first 4 months of this year, the policy issued to intensive than in previous years, which will weaken the intensity of follow-up of conventional regulatory policies.
"Continue Shigekura Chinese stocks"
It is unusual for two years, China's capital market is almost not encountered strong resistance on the way the peak of rush ahead 4300. Meanwhile, A shares glittering attracted separate ways but the influx of funds.
For this market, JP Morgan Managing Director and head of research at China economist Frank Gong, chief China is still optimistic, "My view is that Chinese stocks continue to heavily loaded." In his eyes, A bubble in stock does not yet exist. The so-called mid-term adjustment is expected to not regard so that they can look at the empty Chinese A shares.
However, one can not ignore the fact that wide adjustment has come, A-share market rose from a unilateral move toward a sharp shock. Even the rate of adjustment than many market participants were still deeply imagined.
House Foundation, Inc., a domestic fund manager, said the medium-term adjustment may be between 3,500 points to 4300 points, 4300 points in the short term is still a hard break between the high, or even can not guarantee that the next time it will certainly lower 3500 points to be supported.
Their eyes at the institutional, A-share market is becoming complicated. CITIC Securities that, A-share market experiencing price and performance of the share reform, after the revaluation in 2007, driven by market factors have started to diversify. They will at this stage is called "complicated Quotes."
The reason is that on the one hand, performance factors continue to drive the market up, this factor is no longer just a simple endogenous growth, but also including asset injection and the overall market, including concepts such as extension-type growth is expected to enter the investor's valuation system. In addition, including retail, including a large number of new funds entering the market, since 2007 the number of residents in accounts taken over the past five years combined. They believe that an important reason for the stock market overheating lies an overheated economy. This year, the macro itself is running too quickly is suspect.
A quarter of the macro-economic indicators in excess of policy objectives, but reversing the second quarter of last year, since the downward trend. Industrial production, fixed asset investment and new loans to stimulate the growth acceleration indirect heat on the stock market, while the CPI exacerbated by the rise of the phenomenon of negative interest rates, which is pushing up asset prices factor.
At the same time, a shortage of financial products, as well as investors, changes in the structure to A-share market to accelerate interpreted as "alchemical furnace." Chinese residents of financial assets, securities asset classes (stocks, bonds and corporate bonds) accounted for only 19%, 70% of the deposits and cash is still. Residents "deposit move" boosting its stock price this year, 800 double.
Restlessness eventually healed, when the price of a sustained rise in cases of non-rational, the stock market eventually rational callback needs. As one market analyst said, "A-share market there will be opportunities for gold, but it needs to wait, this time adjustment will have to be deeper than we thought farther."
Long bull not tried?
Domestic institutions in the short-term look at the empty, still be hard to conceal their long-term bullish determination.
Dacheng Fund Management's investment, the vice director Liu said that in the long run, the market will not change the pattern of the bull market.
Liu's for two reasons: First, from a macroeconomic perspective is to support the stock market are long-term good, strong economic growth in the period throughout the 11 �5 are expected to keep domestic demand strong, the domestic capital construction in full swing, exports of industrial upgrading are an enormous opportunity to the listed companies. Economy as a whole in good condition, coupled with two tax merger and other factors, therefore, profitability of listed companies the next few years will be very optimistic.
Second, a long-term trend of stock markets important factor is the "stock change effect", that is, successfully completed its share reform on the capital market, the tremendous and far-reaching effects, which may be called the "stock change effect." And "This 'stock reform effect' will not be short-term to end, its capital market, promoting the role of the national economy will be long-term, sustainable.
Analysts currently predict overall performance of listed companies in 2007 increased by about 30%, from a quarterly perspective, more optimistic than this data, an increase of more than 70%. "
"I am as a fund manager, is very happy to see this super-anticipated appearance, this would be the driving force behind the stock market and long-term rise." Liu said.
