Adjustment Shashi Hou can Daotou Money Tips

Category: Money Tips Date: 2006-01-18

Source: Wu Linlin Beijing Youth Daily

Friday tape re-staged diving trend, Hu Zhi plummeted 93 points ---

Since the "5.30" drop, the tape or two hundred points, twists and turns seem to have become a constant repetition of diving broader market trend Friday, Hu Zhi plummeted 93 points. Investors being more than enough bad news for their own cause losses to find the reason. While the investors continue to hope among the broader market continues to out of the disappointing trend. Such twists and turns When will we stop? Adjustment, Shashi Hou can Daotou? 4335 points, there is hope that breakthroughs?

Current Guests: National Securities senior analyst Xu a nail; and hearing information, chief analyst at Man National Day; Meng, senior analyst at Galaxy Securities in Beijing; Southwest Securities vice president of R & D Center and thoughtful

â–?the operation of the market has its own laws, and now need to be adjusted to the time

Reporter: "5.30" drop, the market's nerves become extremely sensitive, in the face of interest tax may be abolished, the Ministry of Finance to issue special treasury bonds news, stocks soared easily fall over a hundred points, a significant volume began to shrink, do you think boom crash What is the reason?

Thoughtful: The stock market crash, or from the house to look for a profit chips too much. In China's overall economic operating environment has been no fundamental change in circumstances, the broader market up so much, obviously index rising rise from the economy, which directly led to the broader market to adjust their own internal needs. Therefore, the root causes of spike tape, or their own problems, of course, external factors are now also "dogged."

Xu a nail: Market breadth has its own laws, for the current market is concerned, I do not think a policy have an impact on the market. The market has its own laws governing the operation, and now is the need for revision. Recently we always adjust the tape after the tape to find a variety of reasons to explain why the decline, which makes no sense. When the excitement in the market, we bring these messages are forgotten, and now for something out.

In fact, the tape from a 998-point run to 4335 points, rose about 24 months, in the middle did not conduct a proper adjustment of the adjustment prior to a maximum of no more than 10%, while the Shanghai Composite Index rose 300%, the market was a large accumulation of Lee plate. Re-stocks, blue chips are cheap stocks to save at least speculation over again, the market is difficult to tap into the cheap stuff, so the market itself pregnant with deep adjustments.

That all the market volatility investors are relatively large differences in the trend of the market outlook, the only way to appear spike. As to what everyone's idea of when the agreement could be reached, and only God knows, the final decision by the market which benefits to be achieved, it is hard to see it.

The problem of excess liquidity is "both reasonable, rational po po said," to look into this sense is not, the market is always right. Higher transaction costs to give us some short-term speculation on the burden, why the recent fire burst of warrants and closed-end fund? It is because they are not revenue from stamp duty. Adjust the stamp duty before the 94 trading days, stamp duty cost of funds of 550 billion; adjust the stamp duty of yesterday, there should be 23 trading days, stamp duty and away more than 600 billion yuan. Although the effect of the adjustment of stamp duty within a day or two do not see it, but over time, you can see its cost of funds is very large. Different from stamp duty and brokerage commissions, is rigid, there is no room for maneuver, which the transaction costs for investors have enormous implications, and ultimately will affect the volume.

Meng Jing: I think the market factors and policy factors together led to the broader market now, the "sensitive" of the stock market last year, also appeared in the May high, Liu Qiyue were a record low stages. Broader market after rising continuously, gathered a lot of profit plate. In addition, the half-year convertible notes warehouse to prepare for the second half, are not optimistic about selling the stock, a number of naturally occurring shares a certain degree of weakness. If there is no policy, the introduction of the broader market may come to 4500 points, after an adjustment to -4,800 points; but there is a policy ahead of time.

In curbing the problem of excess liquidity, whether the management of special treasury bonds issued, or abolition of interest tax, can not have an immediate effect. Systolic flow is caused by the adjustment on the one hand, the main market to adjust itself, while the policy aspect of the role of the adjustment is expected to increase to give investors the psychological pressure is relatively large, so adjust the longer range is more larger. A bull market situation remains unchanged, does not mean that there is no secondary market to adjust. Only after the adjustments, there will likely continue to rise, continue to rise is to pay a price.

Wen Guoqing: profit-taking is normal behavior, we can not always used to boom are not used to crashå‘€. Had risen massively since the early accumulation of too many disks have huge profits in today's crash, there is nothing strange, nothing to do with investor confidence. As for the abolition of interest tax and the issuance of special treasury bonds, the Government's adjustment of excess liquidity is a good mechanism, we can not say that they are good or bad.

â–?Some stocks have been cut, down to the broader market the price of more than 2000 points

Reporter: 4335 points, seems to have become broader market now seems insurmountable a high threshold, do you think can break through this high broader market? Recently the possibility of the formation of a strong reversal?

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Xu a nail: the market go near 4300, from the previous multi-party dominant, the balance of power both to long-short state, mainly because the market psychology has changed the past, investors want to increase the process of adjustment, become Now we feel that in order to back up the rapid adjustment of status. Based on experience, the market constantly, and most people assume the contrary, if we all think that the market

You can back up the rapid adjustment of status, then the short-term trends, and the judgments just the opposite. The stock market is a small number of people to make money of the game, most people expected probability of occurrence is very small.

Meng Jing: "5.30" After the crash, apart from Shanghai Composite Index does not exceed 4,300 points, other indices have hit new highs. Many investors believe that the Shanghai Composite index is a management concern, but also regulators will put the policy reference index, it can be said that 4300 is the top short-term policies.

But the market is strong in the recent reversal, also depends on the pace of institutional swap positions, as well as some of the policies of the external force plane. There is also the semi-annual report of listed company's ability to constitute a good support.

The policy level, the management for the control objective is not to change, depends on such fund distribution, the overall market and whether it has accelerated private placement, which would indicate the attitude of regulators. Should be said that 3800 is a policy point of equilibrium point, which is a point recognized by the parties to the relative position, the Government introduced the policy will not be easy.

Text National Day: It is now the market remained at 4,000 points above the normal? Tape only temporarily down, short-term break 4300-point Moxi. Some stocks down 50% after, there may be opportunities to rise, but others will follow the stock at a high fall, wheel forward also almost fell again. Not two or three months there will be no better chance.

Thoughtful: B shares and shares subject matter have come to the front of the other stocks, some of which have already cut the stock has dropped more than 2,000 points of the broader market prices. This is just a good start, other stocks will gradually return to rational, of course, a very long process.

â–?adjusted to a time when no one dared to stroke, the market there will be opportunities for

Reporter: Many stocks in the past several adjustments in neither survived, why not? After a recent major adjustment, and which sections have been adjusted in place, get rid of the embarrassment of a high valuation? Investors in the near future should I do?

Xu a nail: I am very simple, even if the price now, there are still a large number of profit-plate, this depends on the historical cost, and now some investors in the market low cost, current prices are still making money, which is profitable business results. Now the adjustment is due to a change in attitude, but attitude has nothing to do with the high valuation and high valuation of the ebb and flow is just one reason why stock prices, the root cause is money. Small number of people to make money the stock market will eventually adjust to the time when no one dared to Bo, the market opportunities will appear.

Meng Jing: This is the second year bull market, will show the characteristics of the structural bull market, that is institutionalized and the QFII money, and its texture is characterized by good stocks continue to move up, while the texture relatively poor poor stock movements, stock prices more flexible . A lot of cap, lower price point has returned to stocks in 2700 the price of -2,800 points, but the collapse of the cap, lower row does not mean that there is no investment value. The stock fell more than half of the potential for a rebound at any time.

Despite a small decline in banking stocks, but the overall gain is not, then a policy aspect of good, once the broad market rebound, does not rule out the possibility of bank shares led. The other is closed-end funds, the current position is still worse resale values remain relatively high, is also held by blue-chip stocks, positions up to 80%, so the safety margin is very high.

Text National Day: The reason why a number of individual stocks tumble more, it is because pre-up too fast, and with the texture of good or bad does not matter. The stock fell 50% should be almost, concrete depends on individual stocks, we recommend investors to time the best Xie Zhao, bargain-hunting is also useless, because those shares can not be horse fell rose up, two days later, investors certainly Nabu Zhu then sold, and not their own losses.

Thoughtful: Even down in this way, the overall price-earnings ratio is still 50 times, only to return to 25 times is normal. The current market opportunity is too small.

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