Category: Money tips Release Date: 2006-09-15
5.9 Since the split share structure carried out against the background of the pilot phase, the market did not expect investors to transfer, but rather to speed up the adjustment of the many ways to deal with market uncertainty. We believe that the focus of the gradual downward as the market risk of the formation of further release, a number of companies and reasonable valuations are expected to gradually emerge.
Market uncertainty and apparent contradiction between the value of co-existence
* The recent tightening of trade policy and listed companies have a certain negative impact on the industry account for a large proportion of the message and become an important reason why the market continued to adjust.
* Tradable shares as the market awaited capital market reform and improve the important measure, the pilot program after the introduction of a reflection of the market there are still significant differences. Tradable long-term perspective will enable the domestic market valuations tend to be reasonable, but the short-term market for the company's pursuit of the pilot to disrupt the market valuation system, and has become the market turbulence downstream of the reason.
* As the market continued down the center of gravity, the market that the cumulative risk is also gradually declining. Contrast to the international capital market valuation of the main level, China's current market is already at a relatively low-risk areas.
We 4.29's closing index and the level of performance in 2004 is calculated, all the company's weighted average price-earnings ratio of 18 times, at present, only about 16.5 times, in the international market at the medium level.
The basic idea of alternative library
From an investment perspective, investors are the main source of revenue for capital gains and dividends in two ways. Greater systemic risk in the current circumstances, the capital gains access to more uncertainty there is, relatively robust to dividend-based stock picking ideas presence more opportunities.
It is based on this idea, we listed the last three years of operating performance, cash flow from operations, dividends, etc., as the level of research indicators, selected alternative combinatorial library.
* Excellent operating performance: the level of performance, taking into account the impact of the sustainable development of the company, to the period 2002-2004 were more than 0.20 yuan per share earnings of listed companies as a basis for stock selection object. Meanwhile, the first quarter of 2005 earnings per share more than 0.05 yuan.
* Sufficient operating cash flow: cash flow from operations per share as an indicator we have chosen to require cash flow from operations per share for the year 2002-2004 at 0.20 and above, which is mainly related to earnings per share matched the requirements of 0.20.
* Continuous dividend capacity: the company for three consecutive years of cash dividends, and the annual cash dividend of not less than 0.10 yuan per share.
* The evaluation of the level of dividends: the dividend yield referenced commonly used indicators (dividend / share price). Specifically, the dividend for the third consecutive year cumulative cash dividends to the stock Zeyi the past three years, the average stock price as data.
In the dividend yield on the evaluation criteria, we take 5% as a basis, mainly with reference to the current short-term deposit rates. Currently 1.98% of the 1-year bank deposit rates on a regular basis net of tax factors, the actual was 1.6%. In the "tax-free dividend," the voice higher and higher, we set aside consideration of dividend tax issues. In this way, for 3 consecutive years of 1.6% of the standard cumulative results of 5% was essentially flat.
Based on the four above basis, we have formed the basic stock 129 stocks libraries.
Company's profitability is expected to be comprehensive, industry and market factors, we arrive at one that contains 20 individual stocks and optimized.
Here, the choice of market factors, we mainly evaluate the level of liquidity and valuation.
Liquidity indicators mainly examine the secondary market turnover, we market in recent years, the average level as a base of comparison. Statistics show that in three years, the turnover on the Shanghai Stock Index is 602%, taking into account the large blue-chip and chip lock Liutong Pan has good features, we take 360% as a basic requirement that the average market level of 60%.
Valuation Zeyi earnings ratio and book value as the main indicator of price-earnings ratio of 5.23 share price target to take the corresponding 2004 annual report data, and in 2005 a quarter of net profit growth of level of dynamic price-earnings ratio, we take 20 times the price-earnings ratio as a request, the main reason with reference to the current market average. To 2.5 times book value as the basic criteria, the main consideration and strong profitability characteristics of the company's valuation.
Historical trend analysis and risk-benefit assessment of
(A) Historical Trend Analysis
From a historical trend view, optimizing the index closed 5.24 points, to 1273.95 points, position relative to the starting point of 1266.49 points or 0.59%, while the Shanghai Composite Index relative to the starting point of 1073.84 points, a gain of -15.21%, both over - rate of return of 15.80%. Clearly, optimizing the performance of the index is much stronger than the broader market.
While the optimization index on the Shanghai index has been above the run, but the real difference is from the beginning until mid March. We believe that the advantages of optimizing the index mainly reflected in the decline process. Should be said that the direction of uncertainty in the market, if adopted defensive strategy, a good combination of defensive, more operational.
(B) the risk-reward choice of indicators
Combination of financial and statistical analysis and other aspects, the industry commonly used in the average earnings index is mainly used to measure income and accumulated earnings; risk indicators Zeyi standard deviation and Beta-based; risk-adjusted returns Zeyi Sharpe and Treynor index to evaluate the standard deviation coefficient can be used as the additional indicators. In addition, using relevant indicators to assess the investment index and the Shanghai Composite Index a linear relationship to serve as a basis for forecasting.
(C) Indicators evaluation and analysis
From the income indicators, optimizing index, the average earnings for 0.0283%, 0.59% total return, taking into consideration the cycle of the same, obviously, optimize the index returns are significantly higher than the Shanghai Composite Index.
From risk indicators, and optimize the standard deviation of the index and the Shanghai index was nearly flat, while the Beta value is significantly lower than the Shanghai index, taking into account the Shanghai Composite Index down operating shock characteristics, optimize the index showed a good defensive defensive characteristics of .
Reflects the risk-return ratio of the optimization of the Sharpe and Treynor index to be significantly higher than the Shanghai index, which reflects the risk-benefit ratio of the standard deviation coefficient while a greater value, but compared with the Shanghai index is still negative edge, reflecting the growing portfolio of stage in history where the same risk factors, earnings are lower, although the absolute risk is higher, but the broad risk-adjusted returns are low. In addition, the correlation coefficient reached 0.805, with a good defensive analysis of the conclusions are more consistent, turnover is lower than the market average, principal and Optimization a good lock on a chip index.
