Category: Money tips Release Date: 2006-03-28
Macroeconomic Research Institute of National Development and Reform Commission economic analysis Research Group
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â—?2006 years will be an increase in adjustments to the annual growth rate eased. Projected GDP growth of 9.3% of the first half of the annual growth of around 9% â—?overcapacity and excess liquidity coexist, deflationary pressures have increased, further increasing employment pressure and the M1, M2 growth rate deviated from the issues to focus on
â—?proposal to grasp the current macroeconomic policy, based on the mid-length of the combination. Effort could be made to optimize the investment structure, and the issue of new countryside construction of special treasury bonds, to promote the reform of resource products pricing and raise wage levels, speed up structural adjustment of export tax rebates
â—?innovative ways to use foreign exchange reserves, could be considered a reasonable incremental reserves into the national strategic reserves of oil and other
Round short of the economic cycle had passed its peak, economic growth is entering a cyclical period of adjustment. From the market within the trend, in the coming period of economic growth will gradually adjusted downward, but the local government there is obviously a "reverse markets" impulse, so that investment growth is slow to adjust.
Entering a cyclical period of adjustment
The national economy continues to run high
A quarter of the national economy continued since last year, "high growth and low inflation" is running a good trend, the total supply and total demand continues to maintain a rapid growth, pre-bottleneck constraints eased significantly, the overall price level remains low.
From the total supply of view, the first two months, industrial production continued to maintain a rapid growth in industrial added value grew 16.2% over the previous year. In this round of economic cycle, heavy industry growth and investment growth between the strong positive correlation between the rapid growth of investment was mainly due to accelerated growth of heavy industry. In the first two months of light and heavy industry once again showed widening of the growth trend, year on year increase of 14.2% and 17.1%, 2.9 percentage points difference between the two, indicating that cooling of heavy industry is not obvious, which is the main current investment is still high reasons. In addition, as coal, electricity, transportation and other supply capacity increases, significant improvement in pre-bottleneck constraints.
Three stable and rapid growth in demand continues. January-February urban fixed-asset investment was 529.41 billion yuan, up 26.6% over the same period the previous year increase of 2.1 percentage points, but the growth has slowed throughout the year than the previous year, especially in real estate investment has lasted nearly half a year low at 20% growth in first two months of real estate investment completed 143.64 billion yuan, an increase of 19.7%, compared with a year earlier, down 7.3 percentage points, the macro-control to control an overheated real estate has been achieved positive results. However, the current growth rate of overall investment is still growing too fast, the macro-control must not be relaxed.
Continued rapid growth of exports, the trade surplus narrowed significantly. Affect the first two months of the reasons for the significant downturn in exports of accession to the WTO decreasing effect on the resource-and energy-intensive products of export restrictions and the recent intensification of international trade friction and so on. Exports decline is expected, and this fall may be a further continuation of the trend. At the same time, import growth has noticeably accelerated, foreign trade surplus narrowed sharply. Import growth continued to rise with the same period last year is directly related to low base. First two months of trade surplus of 12 billion U.S. dollars, and last year of around 10 billion U.S. dollars per month compared to significantly reduce the surplus. However, we want to reduce the trade surplus is to remain calm attitude. On the one hand help reduce the surplus to narrow the pressure of RMB appreciation; the other hand, also shows that the current economic growth is dependent on the external from the past two years, is too large to rely more on changes in domestic demand. Steady and rapid growth in consumer demand, the first two months the whole, total retail sales of 849.61 billion yuan, up 12.5 percent after deducting price factors, the actual increase of 11.7%, with year-ago quarter.
Continue to maintain rapid growth in the economy, while the overall price level was steady Qujiang trend, the first two months consumer prices rose 1.4% over the same period last year dropped 1.5 percent, industrial output price index (PPI) increased by 3.1 % over the same period last year dropped 2.5 percentage points.
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