Category: Money tips Release Date: 2006-01-03
Source: Guangzhou Bandung
Abstract: more affected by the recent bad effects of the two cities decreased popularity, the market showed the trend of the second bottom; stocks, decreases the number of companies increased significantly. In order to accurately aspects of the Quotes, we need to understand the market and the situation, identify the leading force in the market.
Game Analysis
A) the main and policies of the Game:
1) The turbulent pattern of after-market changes: We know and recognize the policy of market situation, identify the leading force in the market as a useful and accurate to Quote of the side. Earlier time, well-known scholar Xu Xiaonian published an article referred to an important issue, he said the Government should carry out institutional reforms to give up the means to intervene in the market to strengthen the credibility of the Government's commitment to completely change the policy of City expectations of investors. It now appears that his train of thought is more accurate.
"The Art of War" is mentioned, the highest state of military strategists is to win without fighting, but war to win Naishi worst. For example, to crack down on speculative atmosphere, the management suddenly raised the stamp duty, although it had certain effect, but the management has also paid a price, the Government's integrity being questioned, but also to save the passive investor confidence. In recent days, the market again a certain level of decline, but only the expected impact has been bad, management, and take action. It is noteworthy that even the art of Zhou's remarks is also useful: "not sure whether there is a bubble." It can be said that this time the management without firing a shot, they received very good results. So this column is estimated that in the next period of time, the management may have been taken by means of psychological pressure, rather than a policy of suppression methods.
The leading force in the market, the largest city in March 4000 from the 3000 point-to-point market, is recognized as the leading retail market, of course the market has also seen an obvious individual characteristics: subjects stocks flying, speculation is widespread. However, the market after a severe concussion, the market situation has undergone subtle changes. According to statistics, the recent number of A shares fell to 160.1 thousand new accounts, showing a significant decline in momentum; can be seen by the recent stock market volatility affecting investor accounts, the enthusiasm began to decline. At the same time, the Fund's promotional activity is more active in the company's dividend this year, the fund had reached 89.275 billion yuan, far exceeding last year's 65.147 billion yuan. Both a cold one hot phenomenon, to some extent reflects the changes in market-driven forces. A new accounts either reduce the number of shares, or shareholders metabasic China, were indicative of agencies are gradually replacing individual's status as the dominant market.
Since the agency will again become the dominant force in the market, then the way the market's performance will also change accordingly. First, the market's rational degree of improvement to reduce the phenomenon of subject matter speculation, the market heat drop. Second, the structure of the phenomenon of differentiation became clear, the performance of individual stocks vary greatly. Specifically, the short-term market, there are some room for adjustment, do not expect too much, about 100 points to 150 or thereabouts.
2) the development of macro-control to become Quotes key point: In addition to capital market situation and other factors, the macro-control transfer has been referred to the important position of investors that this will directly affect the medium-term trend of the market. Of course, this view is justified, the value of determining prices, as Buffett said, the medium and long term, the market extremely accurate, the price will be fully reflected in the value of the number. For example, in 2003 due to macro-economic boom, A stock there's a market, but the back by the macro-control effects, and the prices have been suspended.
Now, a new round of macro-control has already begun, the sustainability of China's economic growth was the focus of debate among economists whether the economy of our country is also facing a "turning point" and other issues were discussed. Taking into account the fundamental guiding ideology of state regulation to ensure the rapid and sound economic development, hence this column that, in national policies, economic environment remains unchanged, China's economic growth substantive "inflection point" is difficult to see in the next few During the year's economic growth will continue to maintain high growth. Should be noted that, subject to the export tax rebate policy, energy-saving emission reduction and other factors, the industry will accelerate the speed of shuffling. In this context, the performance of polarization of individual stocks will be more apparent.
B) the main financial Game:
Taking into account the index is at a relatively high level with the upcoming stock index futures and other factors, some of the main body throw some of the lucrative chips to lock in profits, or to shift the focus of configuration varieties of higher margin of safety, but the overall position has also been a relatively early stage decline. New funds, although some species have begun Jiancang, but the intensity Jiancang not. In general, agencies have taken while walking to see, The Hills view of the cautious strategy of fighting tiger. In the heavyweight competition, the agencies have launched a layout.
3) between the medium and small retail game:
Proposed to focus on the texture of a good investment in M & A unit, or a lower price-earnings ratio of second-line blue-chip. For the short-term performance gains without the support of individual stocks is too large, you can consider progressively lighten up.
Disk X-ray: tomorrow is expected to test a low inertia.
The opportunity to plate is expected to: Recommended concern banks and big blue chips remain cautious.
Market Risk points: short-term or excessive stocks, pay attention to out rallies.
Protection measures: proper control positions.
