Category: Money tips Release Date: 2006-11-08
â—?At present, the index started in the 1250-1300 narrow finishing point region has been nearly two months. In our view, from a macro, valuation, international comparisons, the money supply and so a comprehensive judgments, the market is expected to achieve the 1,300-point level for the medium-term and effective breakthrough in 1300 will be the bottom of the market long-term point of the bottom of the region, A-share market after 1000 three times coming. In the long-term bull market is expected to become increasingly clear basis, we suggest that long-term investors, concerned about the closed-end funds risk-free arbitrage opportunities, the center line resource price reform has brought attention to market opportunities, short-attention to the consumption tax adjustment of the center line of the opportunity to benefit from the plates.
â—?If you from the risks and benefits of both integrated analyzing the case, closed-end funds is undoubtedly the most cost-effective is the current securities assets. In our view, there are many varieties in existence during the period beat the market possess 30-50% or more of the excess return of space, coupled with the future of the net to bring the bullish broad market growth is expected, some species have the potential to double, is a bull market environment species under the risk-free arbitrage.
â—?Recently, the price of oil and natural gas price reform is expected to become the focus of concern in the community. Refined oil price reform is the key to the country by raising the price adjustment frequency, so that domestic oil prices with international standards, with the crude oil price fluctuations and changes in order to straighten out the refined oil and crude oil price ratio between the relationship. This will enable the relevant oil and gas companies the mid-strength.
â—?Since April 1, the China's current consumption tax items and rates and related policies will be adjusted from the enterprise level, despite the consumption tax is a price outside the tax borne by consumers, but the adjustment of consumption tax on the micro-enterprise orientation and impact is still relatively large. Specific to the impact of a listed company is expected to benefit mainly concentrated in the white wine, cosmetics, motor, tires and other industries, including liquor, cosmetics and as the main investment opportunities.
â—?operation strategy, to gradually abandon the bear market mentality for quality blue chips and growth of a significant variety of industry leaders to buy and hold strategy of the center line of operations, with due attention to local theme stocks and short-term profit opportunity for compensatory growth stocks.
A variety of factors support the broader market into a bull market 1, into the bull market there is a macro-based
China's macro-economic continues to improve, is to support the stock market continued strength basis. China's economy entered after 2003, industrialization, urbanization and consumer upgrade driven by several factors, has gradually entered a phase of sustained prosperity of the gold. Statistics show that from 2004 to 2006, China's GDP growth rates were 9.8%, 10.1% and 9.9%, especially in 2004 through the context of macro-control is still able to maintain high growth, low inflation of the good momentum of development , has successfully achieved a soft landing for the economy. National Development and Reform Commission officials in 2005, before the release of economic data in a seminar called: Since 2004, China's economy has entered a sustained, healthy and steady development of the golden period, while in 2006 will remain at the macroeconomic This is a golden period to run.
From a global perspective, in 2005, the global economy overcome the rising oil prices and other adverse effects continue to maintain strong growth momentum, IMF expects global growth rate of about 4.3%. Surface areas of economic growth continued to expand, the U.S. economy is running strong in 2005, achieving 3.5% growth; Japan's economic recovery is not reduced, to achieve 2.7% growth, exceeding expectations by nearly 20%; while developing countries such as India and the Asia-Pacific economic growth in the momentum is strong, according to the Asian Development Bank estimated in 2005, developing economies in Asia is expected to achieve strong growth of 6.5% has become a major world economic growth driving force. According to an authoritative institutions predict that in 2006, despite the national interest rates, oil prices continued to remain high, natural disasters and terrorist events may occur such as uncertainties in the impact of world economic growth will slow down, but will maintain steady growth .
In the world economy continue to pick up a favorable background and domestic industrialization, urbanization, consumption, such as the internal driving force to upgrade the dual positive support, domestic macroeconomic trends in general for the better can not be shaken, so as to A-share market continued strength lay a solid foundation for medium to long term.
2, the valuation advantage of highlighting the value of
A-share market valuation has been the market's attention. At present, we believe, from the revaluation of the RMB, current price-earnings ratio level and the context of tradable share reform and other "system of discounts," such as gradually reducing the number of terms, A shares still have a clear advantage of the valuation. Currently the company has completed share reform G shares of the total market value of more than 60%, According to rough statistics, as of last Friday, taking into account the changes of factors, G Unit, the level of plates, the average price-earnings ratio from 13 to 14 times, with non-reformed companies (in accordance with an average of 10 to send the right price calculation 3) weighted average price-earnings ratio, the current market level of the overall price-earnings ratio should not exceed 16 times, not only lower than H shares, but also to the Main Board of the United States from 15 to 18 level is already close, some industries such as steel plate , coal blocks and other more obvious underestimation.
With the continuous deepening of reform and the related stock supporting the continuous improvement of the system, A-share companies, such as "due to the dominance of internal controls and investor protection were inadequate" and other systemic deficiencies will also be significantly improved, international agencies repeatedly emphasized the "institutional discount "affects will continue to weaken, A-share market's rapid economic growth relies on the domestic growth potential will be further excavated, the overall valuation of benefits will be fully revealed. In fact, H shares rising in recent years, the valuation levels have also been fully reflected the value of the assets of foreign investors in China's new understanding.
From the perspective of the RMB exchange rate, the next few years there is appreciation of the yuan will always be pressure to meet the domestic long-term low interest rate policy environment, abundant supply of low inflation and fund a strong background, A-share market valuations are less likely to decrease the level of .
3, around the market to better support the
With the deepening of capital market opening, A-share market has been gradually incorporated into the track of globalization is the trend, with the valuation of A shares into the international standard progressive vision of national research institutions, A-share market with its neighboring and international markets, linkage effects are expected to further enhanced.
From the surrounding market point of view, in 2005 a wide range of global stock markets rise, the overall bull market in 2006 has also been initially revealed the pattern, to the A-share market is expected to bring strong support. In 2005, the Japanese economy out of troubled for many years due to a gradual deflation quagmire, the economy has clearly recovered and the stock market resulted in significant strength, as of December 30, 2005, up 40.2% over the previous year, ranking the world's first; the three major European stock markets rose across the board Britain's FTSE 100 index rose 16.7% over the previous year, Germany's DAX index rose 27.1% in Frankfurt, Paris, France CAC40 index rose 23.4%; Hong Kong stocks rose nearly 20% of maximum; South Korea and Latin American stock markets have held up quite well. Although the world market leader in the three major U.S. stock market overall in 2005 at the shock adjustment, little performance, but the entry in March 2006, the rising trend of gradually revealed, the Dow Jones index broke through to more recent five-year high, as at last week closing high reached 11,334.80 points.
Clearly, the surrounding markets, strong performance of A shares will inevitably bring about strong support for strength. In fact, entered after 2006, A shares and H shares, as well as stocks of the linkage is quite significant. A-share market from the beginning of this wave of Quotes of the start, early in March this year, started the band nearly a week of adjustment, has been with the H shares and stocks as well as the overall trend is very close indeed picked up the pace in terms of time frame. The market to make money in the peripheral effects and the expected appreciation of the yuan to continue to the next, A shares of the low-risk, high-return characteristics that will be increasingly recognized by international investors, which is A shares on strong support from the bullish centerline.
4, funds continue to improve the supply of a total of 4 1 [2] [3] [4]
