Category: Money tips Release Date: 2007-07-26
First, food prices In 2006 the domestic corn market prices basically maintained the upward trend continues, only a slight seasonal decline in October, but in November, the rise in corn prices will be back on track, and reached nearly 10 years, the highest level. As of mid-December, the average wholesale price of domestic production area reached 1339 yuan / ton, up 5.0% last month compared to same period last year rose 20.3%.
2006?1月初国内小麦价格出现较快上涨?2月份三大主产省农户小麦平均收购价为每50公斤73.9元，?0月份上涨7.7%，同比涨9.2％? Wheat futures international markets, spot price fluctuating at high levels, the overall faster uplink, the highest for nearly 10 years, a new high. 11,12 month as the U.S. Department of Agriculture to increase global wheat production, the price of some varieties of micro-pulled back slightly, but still higher than the same period last year.
2006, food prices are many reasons for this: First, "New Year's Day," "Spring Festival" is the consumption of wheat season, with the grain processing enterprises increased demand driven food prices up. The second is affected by climate, threshing corn in 2006 than in previous years the Northeast delayed nearly a month, coupled with tight capacity, farmers reluctant sellers, causing periodic supply shortages, leading to higher corn prices off-season. Third, the impact is subject to international futures markets, the domestic grain futures prices surged, driving spot prices of grain.
Second, the "basket" price rise In January 2007 both urban and rural wholesale market "basket" price, compared with the previous month, pork prices edged up slightly higher beef prices, egg prices were unchanged; marine fish prices, fish prices were unchanged; leafy vegetable prices edged up , Eggplant vegetable prices. However, compared with the same period last year, pork, egg prices have increased substantially and beef prices rose slightly; marine fish octopus prices and renewed yellow croaker prices decreased substantially, freshwater fish prices were unchanged; leafy vegetable prices dropped steeply and eggplant fruit vegetable prices dropped significantly. Feed prices were both up the chain, or continue to be fully up.
Causes of the rising price basket from three aspects: 1) near the Spring Festival and Lantern Festival, the market demand, food basket prices; 2) higher food prices, driven feed and livestock prices; 3) Peru fishmeal production in the previous year decreased by 31%, International Fishmeal prices, aquatic feed prices.
3, the beneficiary of the listed companies In the process of rising prices of agricultural products, there are two types of companies benefit from: One is the concept of a typical agricultural company, company does not directly benefit from higher prices of agricultural products, such as the Great Northern Wilderness; the other is main business could benefit from the agricultural class companies such as Arima science and technology, agricultural products.
1, Great Northern Wilderness Elements: stability, risk, large cap stocks in agriculture vulnerable to institutional funds of all ages.
Land rental income is the main source of company profits. Food prices will increase the income of the farmers and enhance farmers rented enthusiasm, land contract fee income will also increase as the company will benefit.
Rice industry to maintain an annual sales income of 20% ~ 35% growth rate, profitability is not high, but will bring stable income. With the "Great Northern Wilderness rice industry," the gradual deepening of the brand building, corporate rice prices have room for improvement.
New methanol project has been put into trial production is expected in 2007 annual output of 8 million tons in 2008 annual output to 10 million tons, due to the current domestic shortage of methanol in a state of higher prices, average price of 3,000 yuan / ton or more, will become the company's performance of major growth.
Is expected in 2006 ~ 2008 earnings per share of 0.34 yuan, 0.41 and 0.49 yuan. As agricultural listed companies, the most stable growth of blue-chip companies, stock a reasonable range of 8.60 yuan to 10.30 yuan, giving an "overweight" rating.
2, Arima Technology 2006 year, Arima Science and Technology, main income of 568.6343 million yuan, an increase of 68.62%; to achieve net profit of 18.1128 million yuan, an increase of 119.89%. 0.12 yuan per share, earnings per share (net) 0.13 yuan, 0.12 yuan per share weighted average of the weighted average earnings per share (net) 0.13 yuan, 1.95 yuan per share, net assets, adjusted net assets per share 1.84 yuan, of net assets yield 6.01%, the weighted average yield of 6.12% of net assets, excluding non-recurring gains and losses after the net profit of 19,737,899 yuan.
Company kingpin variety Zhengdan 958 while maintaining a good sales volume in 2005, based on 2006 acreage in the country has been further expanded, while sales of 20 Ling Shan is also gradually increased, becoming the Zhengdan 958, Agricultural University 108 after the country's third largest corn seed.
With the increase in industrial use, as well as the continued high prices of agricultural products, domestic corn supply and demand situation has also been tightened, resulting in rising corn prices remain at relatively high or long-term position. Corn prices directly to stimulate the enthusiasm of farmers to grow corn for the corn seed industry's leading enterprise Arima technology brings more market share.
Forecast in 2007 ~ 2009 Years crown technology, earnings per share was 0.45 yuan / share, 0.70 yuan / share and 0.85 yuan / share. Total price interval 15.10 ~ 16.56 yuan, giving a "cautious overweight" rating.
3, agricultural products Agricultural batch market is about to face a large-scale integration, either from the external economic growth, national policy orientation, or from the domestic industry structure point of view, with the scale advantages of the farmers market was granted a view to usher in the development of gold; from the company's qualification of view, with the only off-site to expand the chain to achieve a batch of agricultural markets, the company has the monopoly of the corresponding, industry status and background make it easier for shareholders to obtain policy support.
Run of China will hold 33.43% stake in the company sell to the foreign shareholders, the company will hold a fruit and vegetable under the civil-run company's 6.33% stake in the transfer to the foreign shareholders, the company is a major positive, but also that the company is indeed are trying to do everything possible to implement the "go nuclear," development strategy.
Agriculture approved the company markets over 70% gross profit margin, comparable to high-end liquor-making industry. Prices of agricultural products will benefit the company's trading volume and trading commissions rise, directly drive the company's gross margin and operating performance improved.
Is expected in 2007 and 2008 earnings per share, respectively, 0.496 and 0.645 yuan, annual growth rate of 30%. Assuming a reasonable 30 times earnings, according to the formula: Target Price = Earnings per share * reasonable price-earnings ratio * (1 + growth rate), calculate the target price of 20.83 - 27.30 yuan, 24.07 yuan central value. Given "prudent overweight" rating.
