Category: Money Tips Date: 2006-09-24
Avoiding short-term market, in particular, the weight of the biggest indicators of stocks, such as the Industrial and Commercial Bank of China, Bank of China, Sinopec, the Hong Kong Group, Conch Cement, China Merchants vessels, North Star, Eastern Airlines.
Shanghai and Shenzhen has risen from the end of 2005, many investors on the Quotes from the time of the initial rising disdain, doubt, wait and see, regret, and to the 2006 mid-Quotes sideways shocks fear, disbelief, indifference, and then to the recent excitement, happy, crazy. At present, almost all of the securities market of the people are detached in one voice that is a bull market will continue to go skyrocketing. Basically there is not much pessimism can be said to be entirely a "one-sided" Quotes.
After "28," Quotes, "19," Quotes of the baptism, many investors have begun to understand if the investment is buying stocks, they buy high-quality blue chips, and have started convertible strategies. However, the situation analysis of market trends, high-quality blue chips has been strong Hengqiang basically no chance to return to reduce the purchase, investors can continue to chase the high involvement of high-quality blue chips, or crazy to buy a fund to indirectly holds high-quality blue chips. At this stage of the stock market point of view, when the Shanghai Composite Index entry 2000, after which, the market has begun to transfer funds from an undervalued model-driven, and the prices of funds due to crazy driving and the trend appears clear "one-sided" situation. Quotes from the past history, this "one-sided" market reports have appeared in late 2000 and 2001, is a typical example. Of course, I am not here say that the market has come to the big top, it will not easily predict the future will be dropped, but rather that the current market really need a rest. A physical long-distance race of people is constantly being overdrawn, it is impossible to exhaustion and bite the hair straight edge down, or will be very easy to collapse to death. It should be a degree of Chi Zhang, enough is enough, will be more space.
"One-sided" Quotes although pulled is really excited, but in fact is very scary. It is often able to rise and fall of Quotes of the evolution to the extreme, the rising or when it can absolutely astonished investors, not convinced, but once the quotations for turning, then the consequences would be incalculable. Because the "one-sided" of the stock market is to make the original do not believe that investors in stocks would rise, but also completely, there is no doubt continue to believe that when one began to fall Quotes adjustment, they still believe that the market will continue to rise, put more money to undertake. In this way, institutions will be gradually transferred to the chips small and medium investors, when they can get out, the market crash not far away.
We have analyzed the preliminary short-term in terms of regional markets and the global market perspective, A shares have been temporarily overbought. When the liquidity of the stock market, almost the sole topic of talk, some sober A main body will be recognized that it is time to re-valuation of the shares. From the valuation point of view, support the recent A callback to determine the factors shares are: Although China is in the process of industrialization has made significant achievements and in the global economy to grow into a major economy, but China's capital market reform is far from reach a level higher than the U.S. stock market valuation levels. In the past 20 years, there have been three times higher than the U.S. China, the timing of valuation. But each time no more than one year. From 6 months ago, the results of data analysis point of view, the valuation of Chinese enterprises has begun to exceed the U.S. standards, which according to past experience, the Chinese market decline is likely to come in 6 months, so does the risk of the current A shares at the peak.
New Year's Day came back from the seven trading days of the situation analysis, the right of the major indicators of stocks have actually started to drive down. Except for some put warrants, the largest decline of the stock is the Industrial and Commercial Bank of China and Bank of China, with declines of 14% and 12%. Others, such as conch cement, Hudong Heavy, Jinlong car, Fuyao, Shandong gold, investment real estate, commodities or big city such as pre-big blue chips, but also at the forefront of the recent decline. Therefore, for the most vicious pre-up bank shares, real estate shares, non-ferrous metals should be temporary to avoid watching, can not be blind pursuit of high involvement.
In particular, the gold company in January 8 in a strategy report reminded investors that management has revealed do not want to stock up the wishes of broad market and therefore will be most likely to face short-term adjustments. In our view, from a macroeconomic analysis of the situation, the central bank to increase the statutory deposit reserve ratio as well as the Shanghai Stock Exchange to change the presentation of the index, reflecting the wishes of the management control tape. Management through this in two ways, paying close attention to asset prices, excess liquidity fueled role. Management want to advance in March before the tape can be adjusted to a relatively safe level, to try to avoid in 2001 and 2004, the phenomenon of repeated, when the two sessions before and after large changes in the stock market.
Some funds also warned that hot-headed investors, domestic institutions have always been extremely concerned about the direction of the management of the guidance, the market would not reverse the management of the line, so that the stock market to face the short-term adjustment, will be a few weeks. And even fund managers that "if the indexes continue up the short-term, management did not rule out the possibility of introduction of more stringent measures." In view of this, the recent need to be cautious adjustment of the arrival of some of the risk section, and perhaps some investors do not agree with, but the It also began to appear in this section to adjust signs, we recommend waiting to see, or avoid being dominated.
Is therefore recommended that investors should seize the opportunity to adjust positions, short-term to avoid banking, real estate, aviation and other interest-sensitive stocks. In fact, if there is to adjust, so that the future of the stock market will have more rest and recuperate poised to be up role.
Recent need to be cautious of the risk of plate are: broad market index stock weight: Short-term to avoid, especially the weight of the biggest indicators of market shares, such as the Industrial and Commercial Bank of China, Bank of China, Sinopec, the Hong Kong Group, Conch Cement, China Merchants vessels, North Star, Eastern Airlines, etc. .
Bank of plates: Short-term to avoid, especially Industrial and Commercial Bank of China, Bank of China, Shanghai Pudong Development Bank, Huaxia Bank.
Part of the broader market recently adjusted weight index stocks: The December 2006 subject to
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