Category: Money Tips Date: 2006-05-16
Source: Guangzhou Bandung
Abstract: The concept stock brokerage stocks continued to rebound, led by subject matter, but in 4000 occurred near a certain pressure on the sustainability of a rebound afternoon, depending on whether there is a new hot spot emerged.
Game Analysis
A) the main and policies of the Game:
1) rebounded to 4000 faced some pressure: from disk perspective, today's pre-oversold stocks continued to rebound, and some brokerage stocks rebound greater intensity, and a rebound in stocks subject matter have a positive impact. Nevertheless, after a rebound in past few trading days after the pressure on stocks already faintly visible.
Quotes of the recent slump, there have been three significant bargain-hunting money involved, one of which is May 31, when the stocks in the vicinity of 4,000 points. That is to say, as of today closing, a considerable part of the individual stocks of the stock will reach the capital cost of the first bargain-hunting zones. In this case, the first bargain-hunting fund selling is very likely to flee, and put pressure on stock prices. Most notably, the top is stuck with the chips may also be out one after another. Because the fall has given way to significantly increase their risk awareness, as long as a loss narrowed to the extent once, they most likely out.
Of course, this selling pressure should not be too much, because the market has clearly restored investor confidence. First of all, management has said that the stamp duty raised only to curb the market speculation, and not weighed on the market mean investors should maintain a sufficient market confidence. Second, many institutions have indicated that crash did not shake the confidence of their shareholders, but has become an opportunity for them to absorb the chips.
In addition to market their own finishing operation pressure, the macro-control is also expected to influence the market. May the macro data will be released, the experts predict that in May of CPI (consumer price index) year on year growth rate will reach 3.7% in June to 4.0%, three-quarter will be more than 4.0%; has always been, CPI does not exceed 3% be regarded as the central bank control the bottom line. Therefore, the next period of time, the central bank raised the reserve again, or raise interest rates more likely.
2) The key to the sustainability of recovery: to rely on second-line blue chips and big blue-chip power Huzhi once return to the 4000-point mark. We can draw from this phenomenon, the market can stand on the 4000 points, the key depends on the performance of second-line blue chips and heavyweight, not just the subject shares. Because the subject matter shares rebound after an already facing a certain amount of pressure, this point has been analyzed in the previous column. Then, second-tier blue chip worth the wait with the heavyweights of the stock market do?
It should be said that this part of the bubble collapse on the one hand Jiqu the one hand, would also curb stock market speculation on the subject. Column is estimated that, in the oversold bounce after the completion value investing philosophy will gradually become the mainstream, that is, second-tier heavyweight blue chips and the market will gradually become the mainstream plate. Of course, this transformation is also a catalyst, mainly for some time in the future will be the peak period of notice of interim results, high-growth stocks is likely favored by the market.
B) the main financial Game: taking into account the index is at a relatively high level with the upcoming stock index futures and other factors, some of the main body throw some of the lucrative chips to lock in profits, or to shift the focus of configuration varieties of higher margin of safety, but the Overall pre-position relative has also declined. New funds, although some species have begun Jiancang, but the intensity Jiancang not. In general, agencies have taken while walking to see, The Hills view of the cautious strategy of fighting tiger, even in the heavyweight competition, the same is not deep wading.
3) between the medium and small retail game: It is recommended to invest in a better focus on the texture of M & A unit, or a lower price-earnings ratio of second-line blue-chip. For the short-term performance gains without the support of individual stocks is too large, you can consider progressively lighten up.
Disk X-ray: Challenge 4000 points will be available tomorrow, there is no suspense.
The opportunity to plate is expected to: It is recommended attention Yejiyuzeng plate.
Market Risk points: short-term or excessive stocks, pay attention to out rallies.
Protection measures: proper control positions.
