Category: Money Tips Date: 2006-01-24
More than 95% of investors would acquire the habit of the so-called professionals to probe the so-called "hot tips" (such as the Mark Six lottery report card before the forecast). Of its ordinary people go to fortune-telling stalls throughout the peaceful state of mind for divination, trying to predict the future, and there is not much difference. Such investors to analysts as a fortune-teller's situation, I call it "crystal ball phenomenon."
Q winning lottery numbers, and nothing wrong with the original is sufficient information society's most valuable resource, and then a professional financial operations, and other masters who are accustomed to the exchange of market information. However, the general investors and professional operators the biggest difference is between the professional operators are usually very clearly that they received only an in-depth study of reference, rather than open the door to success the key to profitability. In particular, a professional operator of the trading schemes will have to escape - cutting stores stop-loss - programs, allowing them to sell winning lottery numbers expire quickly after the wrong part, Enron turnaround. Other hand, the general investing public, often have unrealistic expectations for the winning lottery numbers, the total provision of hot tips that will represent what behind the legal person, the main banker is in the backing, so winning lottery numbers are accurate.
The so-called financial market "hot tips" and the lottery of the winning lottery numbers The difference is that the financial markets by the winning lottery numbers are usually recommended by prior research, or aware of insider information after the proposal made by the portfolio, while the lottery of the winning lottery numbers are is transmitted by non-scientific procedures may result in random results.
Therefore, the financial markets is not the winning lottery numbers should speak out indiscriminately by the recommendation, whether analysts use fundamental analysis is that Qi is a technical analysis of individual stocks, when he recommended the premise must be based on specific assumptions, to predict or judge whether individual stocks Investors should be buying. We want to stress that these assumptions are the dynamic nature of the absolute terms, analysts can not forecast economic indicators, corporate earnings growth targets, or prices, just as meteorologists can not tell you the same points a few minutes it will rain.
In reading any one market analyst reports, no matter how he is Dingdingyouming, articles, how to enrich the written, logical, you must be on the inside is as important as trying to find something, it is the article assumption that? It is precisely because there is no one forecast is foolproof, so if we have found that conditions are not realistic assumptions, then the conclusions of the article in the draft analysis is untenable. In other words, the kind of financial products could no longer worthy of investment.
Therefore, there is no one under the assumption of the conclusions of the paper is not worth a care. On the contrary, when an analyst can be based on explicit assumptions to determine a particular financial product worth recommending, then when these assumptions change in the conditions and cause prices are not as was originally expected to be seen, this analyst does not dereliction of duty. After all, he is based on rigorous scientific procedures involved in analytical work, but not the fortune-teller with a crystal ball to tell a story.
Because of his position to the relationship, people often asked me if there any good investment targets, I am always happy to share with others of my research. But I never answer a question, that is, "Will going to go up (down) to where the way?"
Whether foreign exchange, indices or individual stocks, which I can not answer for both questions. Usually I would say, "I do not know Jesus," or "up (down) to up (down) does not go up untilå‘€." This answers to hear people are usually two kinds of reactions, the first is to scoff, I feel the analysis of skill merely mediocre, or is secretly unhappy, I feel I have a good idea, are reluctant to tell others.
Both reactions often I am helpless. First, if investors were interested in for price forecasting of the performance in-depth study, I suggest that you can target specific people for statistical forecasting results to see if his prediction value and real performance if there are discrepancies? Average error number? Correct probability geometry?
You can find that the price forecasts made by the vast majority are not accurate. This is unrelated to the capacity of analysts, but forecast is in itself an impossible task. A responsible analysis, he provides is clear that the premise of assumptions, and which to infer what the current market trends, and then suggest that readers homeopathic action.
Excellent analyst guarantee that you can have a higher winning percentage, but not spin gold from straw may offer the magic. If you think you should not have asked weather bureau will tell you a bit down today, how much rain a few points, you also should not expect an analyst to accurately predict the price will go up (down) to where.
