Category: Money Tips Date: 2007-05-10
Studies in the stock area of operation, there is a very important principle, is to implement the general operation of the mass psychology runs counter to the reverse. That is an optimistic voice of the masses, it should alert the masses when the courage to undertake a pessimistic. Because the masses are mostly "grab up sell into," the. Stock theory, stock prices more inflation, the higher the risk, however, starting to go the people have confidence, stock prices fell more, the lower the risk, but investors are increasingly worried about the general. For investors, how the speculative fever is high, to maintain rational judgments, as well as when the fear of fear among the masses still maintain sufficient confidence in the profitability of its investment in a great relationship.
Volatility in the stock market relatively small, but also reflect the importance of mental operations against the people.
For example, in the beginning of the Republic of 76, Taiwan's general economic scholars and economic experts consider that the NT dollar to appreciate, Taiwan's export-oriented economy, is bound to suffer, indirectly, economic growth slowed. Is reflected in the stock market in the quarter than the quarter will also appear pale, quarter over quarter worse. The result, however, the stock market hit new high, to September, more than soaring, just as the masses a bullish stock market will hit 5,000 points, a time when misfortune comes, the stock market down sharply Cuo, coupled with the impact of the U.S. stock market plunge Taiwan's stock market drop of more than 50%. 78 In the beginning, some experts also predicted that the estimated economic growth rate will slow down, the stock market will rebound only fallen materially, the stock market but did not expect another new peak. These phenomena show that the trend of the stock market, often run counter to the masses of the psychological.
Often adopt the main mass behavior contrary to the general mode of operation. For example, line break at the end of the road, the masses, when the stock popped up a rather pessimistic, the main force has vigorously buying, on-line on the road through the head, the masses of an optimistic and rush stocks, the main force of another strong selling, be adjusted.
Since the reverse operation with the general public, they must understand the people in general psychology, to understand the people in general psychology, the following indicators for reference.
(1) Investment advisory opinion, the majority of investment advisers have encouraged clients to buy dips, sell into rallies, but in reality, many examples have shown, investment consultants have suggested to the contrary, therefore, when most investors view the publication optimistic, and the prices are often closer to the peak, when most investment publications pessimistic, and the prices are close to the bottom.
(2) The mutual fund cash ratio. Mutual fund's investment portfolio increased cash, saying stock prices to fall, hold less cash, that stock should rise. Therefore, the ratio of cash holdings, can be used as an indicator, when the ratio of cash holdings is very high, the stock is nearing the bottom is often the contrary, is very came from a ratio of cash holdings, stock prices often near the peak, In addition, the mutual funds in the cash holding There are several with the first three months of the cumulative hoping to buy a few of the ratio can be as reference, fell due to the Fund, there are redemption pressure, and therefore if the number of cash holdings with the first three months of the cumulative number of redemption requests is greater than eight times the rate of the Fund to buy back the pressure on smaller, when this ratio is less than or equal to 8 times, this time a small amount of cash (the ability to purchase smaller) and the large sell-off, often leads to price decline.
(3) financing the balance of the trends and limits, because the investment balances represent the increase or decrease in investor confidence in the stock cycle, from the bottom of the recovery, financing the balance of anti-slowly increasing, with the price rise, investor confidence increased, financing amount and increase the speed gradually increased and finally peaked at this time the financing part of it shares an important source of supply, reverse, the financing of large stocks, tend to decline the most.
(4) whether the booming popularity of securities companies, if not already hit the headlines in the past, but now sparsely populated, and the customer to ignore its Quotes worse, indifferent to the stock opened down in the chess chat, books, books on newsstands sell the shares at this time Usually stock has bottomed. On the contrary, when the popularity boiling an opening that comprehensive limit-board, this time near the peak price is usually advised to reduce or withdraw holdings wait and see, there are two securities saying that "I prefer the disposable people, people take me to the" and "people do not When is the time to get together to buy "is the best portrayal.
In short, investing in stocks in addition to understanding of the underlying analysis and technical analysis, the psychology of the masses must also be examined, after all, successful investors, often maverick, doing things that others did not dare to do, and insistent and the investors.
