Category: Money tips Release Date: 2006-12-31
Source: Bohai Investment
Today, once again the strong rise in the renminbi exchange rate, a record high. According to the China Foreign Exchange Trade System announced that the current U.S. dollar against the yuan central parity rate fell to 7.8998 yuan, 7.9 yuan in the first break, and then a new low since the foreign exchange reform. In its latest round of the yuan to accelerate the appreciation of Quotes, the cumulative appreciation of the yuan exchange rate more than 400 basis points, but the fundamentals has not been any revaluation of the yuan successive change. At present China's exports remain strong, the current account and capital projects have a large surplus, foreign exchange reserves still growing rapidly, so the process of RMB appreciation will continue.
Appreciation of the renminbi is expected to block callback index space, will contribute to the bullish stock market to continue for quite long period of time, as long as the yuan appreciation expectations do not change, continuous inflow of international capital, the driving force of China's stock market will not reduce its impact for the stock market is far is far greater than on economic growth and some factors that impact company performance, thereby forming a strong strength of China's securities market momentum.
We found that the current round of A shares Quotes can be sustained and substantial rise in the main reason is that the expected appreciation of the RMB. Early real estate stocks, banking stocks surged pushing price climbing higher and higher, its sources of funding that may be washed from the international capital appreciation of the renminbi, in which the induction of capital, domestic private capital, ordinary investors and domestic funds will swarm in stock Along the way line. The anticipated appreciation of the RMB under the international capital inflows, coupled with China's large surplus on current account, Waihuizhankuan substantial growth in yuan serious excess liquidity. Excess supply of yuan, while the relevant market less attractive for funds, so we have reason to conclude that within the next two to three years, the Chinese stock market is likely driven by deduction of capital a magnificent bull market.
In the short term, and continued appreciation of the yuan appreciation is expected to promote aviation, telecom stocks strengthened, with real estate, and financial stocks benefited from the appreciation of the adjustments to the basic end of the room for further pullback in stock has been basically sealed, finishing above the 1,700 points After the multi-party offensive is expected to start again.
Continued appreciation of the yuan against the background of China's stock market investment opportunities in the future revaluation of the RMB is expected to be repeated for some time to operate in China's securities market, one of the main investment themes, therefore, investors should focus on those who benefit from the appreciation of the renminbi business plate, grasp the appreciation of the RMB to bring investment opportunities.
1, directly reduce operating costs, cost category: Aviation Unit, the most direct benefit from the rapid appreciation of the renminbi will make foreign currency liabilities, high levels of industrial companies pay less in yuan to complete the original matching of foreign currency debt payments. Airline stocks in foreign currency liabilities of the most concentrated, there are a large number of aviation equipment finance lease liabilities, each to be paid a certain amount of interest charges and principal payments. Appreciation of the renminbi on the airline stocks produce the following effects, first, a one-time appreciation of the current book value of exchange gains and losses, and second, in the long run will make fuel costs, operating leases and other expenses reduced, the airline increased gross margin. According to statistics, the appreciation of the yuan for every 1%, the airline will increase by 0.5% percentage point margin. Third, the RMB appreciation will also contribute to the rapid growth of air travel abroad. Airline stocks will undoubtedly become the largest beneficiary species, with China Air China (601111) as the leading aviation stocks cause for concern. For the electric power, telecommunications and other foreign loans used to carry out technical transformation of enterprises, the RMB appreciation can also be reduced to some extent the pressure of external debt servicing and financial costs. Such as China Unicom (600.05 thousand) in the 2003-2004 financial year was 1.2 billion U.S. dollars of floating-rate syndicated loan, only in the principal amount of RMB appreciation would allow it to pay a substantial benefit on.
2, real estate, yuan-denominated Class: appreciation of the real estate shares lead to a revaluation of assets, revaluation of the industry, the most typical is the real estate and commercial real estate industry, the other addition to the airport, ports, railways and other infrastructure and non-traded real estate industry, . If the yuan continues to appreciate, on the one hand, the international flow of capital influx, will contribute directly to this part of the asset price inflation; the other hand, the business expansion of foreign trade will increase the demand for such infrastructure, thereby promoting the products or services in these sectors the price of up.
3, the appreciation of the special benefit from the industry: financial services, and long-term investment value of the yuan appreciation is expected to improve, it will greatly improve the yuan in the international financial market position, attracting international capital flows of China's banking system, for domestic banks asset quality, capital adequacy ratio , intermediate business development, revenue structure, profitability patterns have a positive impact in raising the bank's asset prices. The domestic financial services firm with valuable business licenses and market share in the appreciation of the renminbi and the banking industry to gradually open up this big environment, these important intangible assets is bound to enhance its investment value.
Be able to benefit from the appreciation of the renminbi industries are. As long as the yuan appreciation to reduce their operating costs directly to the enterprise, or in China, locally owned local currency denominated assets, business, or with Chinese characteristics and resources of the enterprise, are likely to benefit from yuan appreciation, such as the country treasure of traditional Chinese medicine enterprises, the main raw material dependence on imports of paper-making enterprises, the part of the international pricing of raw materials Chemical enterprises.
Generally speaking, the process of RMB appreciation on China's economic growth and the performance of some companies the impact is much smaller than China's stock market to promote its appreciation of the yuan will continue to block the expected appreciation of the stock further pullback in the short-term space, is expected to boost the stock market continued to go Niu, select and hold advantages of variety is the key to the current market to maximize profits.
