Category: Money tips Release Date: 2006-04-16
Rebound and reverse the fundamental transformation of Law: the rebound might not be able to evolve into reverse, but the reverse has certainly evolved from the rebound. In the majority of Ruoshi rebound adjustment is not possible to reverse the trend of evolution is often short-lived after the re-attributed to silence, truly reverse the nature of the small number of transaction occurs. But a small amount of reversal is exactly in the number of investors do not dare to expect a rebound in the gradual evolution of them there. Therefore, the formation of a rebound on the basic relationship with the reversal criteria: a rebound may not be able to evolve into reverse, but the reverse has certainly evolved from the rebound.
Rebound and reverse the criteria for determining the basic relationship between the investor's basic investment strategy, when in an adjustment phase arising in any transaction, investors should first be treated as a rebound to, do not stock rebounded slightly, they delighted if mad that the big bull market coming. If the judge in the rebound in the accurate, rapid and decisive attack, and to obtain a certain short-term profits for investors, it is necessary and timely profit-taking. If the strain is less than 1:00, and the shares have been up high, Do not chase. At the same time, we must continue to analyze the operational characteristics judged to grasp its evolved into the possibility of reversal, whereby use of the corresponding investment.
In the course of this year's stock market decline had occurred a number of rebound, but it ultimately did not form a rebound several times as a reversal, by summarizing some of these common features, we find that there is no reason for the formation of reversal reasons:
Rebound in production of only relying on the support of technical indicators
Current standard stock market is running on a downward trend channel, this channel was formed in mid-June, in so far nearly 4 months time, there have been a total of four times a rebound, one rebound every time a high point and the record low location are just in the channel line up and down the track near the index fluctuations are strictly limited to two parallel lines running inside. One of the most notable feature is that every time was born in the Bollinger Bands indicator issued a buy signal.
For example: June 23 ~ July 2 date, the stock hit a line under the rail line Brin and maintain uniform fall, when the July 2, indexes to successfully emerge from under the rail line Brin line after the broader market seen a continued time of up to two weeks and a half rebound; August 1 Friday Huzhi the lowest point under the rail line from the Bollinger Bands is only a difference of 1:00, followed by the next trading day, ie Monday, August 4 Huzhi started immediately short-term rebound ; August 25 re-stock index hit a Boolean line trajectory, after four days of time indexes maintained within a narrow range consolidation trend, and on September 1 produced a strong rebound in a single day; September 29, tape is broken again, Brin line rail line, the results of the second day of September 30, immediately launched a strong rebound in stock, Zhong Pan to close at 1367 points.
Rebound when the volume is not matched with an increase
When bounced to reverse the evolution, if accompanied by a rising stock modest contribution, while the index of the callback when the Su Liang, then an upward trend in good condition; if large volumes faster, whether up or down, will mean that upward trend will change. Movement of funds in the stock market is essential, and there is no new money involved stabilized rebound, which increases the time span and spatial extent will not be too much. The involvement of additional funds to judged primarily by volume, stock up on low volume amplification, means that incremental funding is actively involved in, it is easier to form break up the trend, which ultimately reverse the trend.
This volume amplification was not referring to a single trading day, nor is it put the bigger the better, the key lies in the amount of energy amplification to be able to maintain a certain continuity, to be able to show that there is incremental funding is a step in a planned Jiancang the process of implementation, once the involvement of incremental funding up to a certain degree, the formation of individual stocks tend to break up the trend, with the attendant possibility of qualitative change has produced. However, several recent rebound in both volume and effective amplification does not appear signs of a rebound is also a lack of continuity and produce qualitative basis.
Rebound when the hot does not have to launch the basis for
Recent rebound, the hot spots are prominent and there is not clear do not have substantive meaning. The stock market in a variety of both hot running characteristics with the closely linked. Regardless of size or duration of length, are also a hot plate with this round is closely related to the rise and fall. The reversal from the previous development analysis, those who can mobilize a strong reversal of the hot plate, often with the following characteristics:
1, hot market has a certain appeal and cohesion funds, and can effectively inspire and lead the market sentiment;
2, hot with the in-depth development of the kinetic energy and sustainable rise in potential;
3, hot money out of the mainstream with the ease of a large-scale circulation of capacity;
4, hot spots lasted longer and avoid a premature differentiation and frequent switching.
If and when the market performance is more unpopular stocks, compensatory growth, or oversold stocks rebounded strongly, rather than a strong rise of the mainstream hotspots, it will give a negative impact on the development. Because of such short-lived hot spots will not be able to form a real hot spot, and thus can not constitute substantial market's Zhang Sheng efforts to help. Also, When it becomes too hot stocks of the Liutong Pan hours, also shows that only a small capital or funds in the Martial Law took the opportunity to make trouble and shape成不了气? Meanwhile, the hot spot is more disorder, switching tempo too fast, hot spots can not be timely follow-up relay, these factors are easily lead to a rebound premature mortality, and there is no effective reversal.
Rebound from a lack of substantive support on policy fundamentals
The policy side, the fundamentals are the most important constraining factor in the stock market movements, but also bounced to reverse the evolution of a decisive factor. At present, China's macro-economic environment should be very good, but the stock market but with the trend runs counter to the macroeconomic environment. The basic reason is the lack of substantive support for the policy side. Since May, showing the amount of equity financing to accelerate increasing trend, the market expansion pace has accelerated noticeably. Huaxia Bank has just been released listing, Yangtze Power in October will be released immediately. In addition to outside funding shares, listed companies are also pay close attention to refinancing. September 21, the central bank to raise the deposit reserve ratio by 1 percentage point, not only shows the attitude of the central bank tightening, but also in the stock market funds face a tight budget, we do not rule out that some money from the stock market pulled out of the possibilities, and thus generate a new one on the stock market shocks, which lead to a backlash is difficult to evolve into reverse.
