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Data:2009-12-12 2:34
1, the overall remained in the doldrums
The recent broad market continues to oscillating movements, the Shanghai index dropped to 1564.40 points from 1606.07 points, then back up to 1598.02 points. Baosteel Warrants Warrants Market volatility makes the oscillation increased, with a total market capitalization rose to 15.32 billion yuan from 15.99 billion yuan, the latter fell to 15.18 billion yuan; turnover increased substantially from the 4.696 billion yuan to 8.002 billion yuan one time, an increase of 70%, after drop to 6.046 billion yuan.
Baosteel warrants surged Monday, opening half-hour or more than 20%, turnover also significantly larger. Affected by this, pre-hot steel and heavy volume warrants are rising, such as Wuhan Iron and Steel JTB1, Anshan Iron and Steel JTC1, Wuhan Iron and Steel JTP1, airport JTP1, turnover in both Shanghai and field JTP1 twice to enlarge. Tuesday Baosteel warrants continue to rise sharply, a two-day total rose as high as 53%. Baosteel is expected to warrant the market early may be occurring at the low-cost short-term rebound, but such a high level or a rapid reaction force the exchange to take prompt measures. G Baoshan Iron and Steel fell by the news, as well as the impact of rapid decline Baosteel Warrants, 18 single-day drop in more than 18%, prices of new lows.
Most of the recent decline warrants. Warrants the largest decline was Baosteel JTB1, down 12%. Shares are down by the impact of Baotou JTB1, first JTB1, long power CWB1 also fell sharply. In addition to Baosteel JTB1, other warrants of the Change and its stock price changes are there is a certain relevance. Put warrants were mostly higher, but gains little in terms of a relatively early stage. Vanke HRP1 Continues to Fall, the recent decline to 32%, but in absolute terms the amount fell by only 0.024 yuan. As the prices continue to decline, Vanke warrants may be even greater decline.
From the premium rates, the market premium rates continued to decline. While the put warrants a premium rate increase makes a small pick-up rose to 22.43 percent from 22.13 percent, but warrants a premium rate fell from 20.92% to 20.33%. Baoshan Iron and Steel JTB1 premium largest decline, down 2.2%. Baosteel JTB1 premium rate is still higher than 8%, prior to its cessation of trading will be substantially reduced. Valin JTP1 premium rate is still negative, risk-free arbitrage opportunities still exist. Implied volatility from the point of view, implied volatility over 100% of the warrants had six. Implied volatility is the highest rate of Anshan JTC1, up 183%, up slightly over last week. Baosteel JTB1 and Vanke HRP1 implied volatility rate is still over 90%. In the "end of the C of E" under the influence of the market is likely to continue oscillating warrants, investors should guard against the risk.
2, "end-round" risk remains
While on a two-day Baosteel Warrants "substantial shareholder", the Daqing oil field technology development companies tombo made the decision to withdraw. Shanghai Stock Exchange to disclose the latest data showed that as at August 16 closing, tombo, Baoshan Iron and Steel warrants held by the proportion of oil has fallen below 5%.
Tombo Oilfield is an appearance this week, more than 5% of Baosteel holder to subscribe for the list in order to Baosteel Warrants 387.7 million copies in circulation terms, the company holds the number of warrants when the 19.385 million copies. As the speculative funds are normally taken to warrant speculation that day to buy a strategy to sell the same day, few will be kept overnight, so tombo field in recent years, Baosteel warrants a first "major shareholder", but also the first large-scale round of institutional holders of doom.
From the field of buying and throwing tombo Baosteel subscription point of view, the sale of the warrants should be quite gains. Suppose the company amounted to 19.385 million warrants held by copies, in order to subscribe for August 14 opening price and closing price of Baosteel average of 0.397 yuan terms, the cost price of about 7.686 million yuan; August 16, Baosteel opening price and closing price of the subscription The average value of 0.527 yuan, if the Pass near the Bo field in the price of the warrants held by all the throws, then the realization of income of 10.206 million yuan, a three-day period yields about 30%.
Since this week, with Baosteel subscription is about to expire, its trading price can fluctuate sharply. In the SSE of Baosteel Warrants speculation and limit the introduction of strong regulatory measures to account for transactions of a certain unusual circumstances, the warrants speculation clearly cooling, will cease trading next week, Baosteel subscription rapidly closer to the theoretical value. This week, the warrants decreased by 21.63%, to close at 0.279 yuan, a record low. Baosteel is the G unit of 4.13 yuan to 4.2 yuan is still below the exercise price.
Baosteel Call August 23 to stop the transaction until the end of August would be OK if there is considerable uncertainty in the value of the right. As the G Baosteel eight semi-annual report will also be announced late, and some agencies may be informed in advance the relevant data, so the next few trading days of Baosteel warrants performance still leaves a lot of uncertainty.
Next week we believe that part of the iron and steel share purchase warrants and the warrants are still relatively low premium rates with the participation of a better value to investors continued to recommend Wanhua HXB1, Wu Liang YGC1 Handan Iron and Steel JTB1.
The table, as of August 18 the valuation of the warrants
Name
Latest Price
Intrinsic value
Time Value
Premium rate (%)
The remaining duration (days)
Valin JTP1
1.197
1.25
-0.053
-1.5057
562
Wanhua HXB1
9.419
6.61
2.809
0.5509
252
Shanghai market JTP1
1.227
0.47
0.757
5.7654
201
Wuhan Iron and Steel JTP1
0.531
0.35
0.181
7.2984
97
Baosteel JTB1
0.279
0
0.279
8.4504
13
Airport JTP1
1.064
0.52
0.544
8.5266
127
Deep able to JTP1
0.593
0
0.593
9.6741
70
Wu Liang YGC1
7.019
5.68
1.339
10.6693
594
Baotou JTP1
0.523
0.28
0.243
11.6268
225
Anshan Iron and Steel JTC1
2.868
2.01
0.858
15.8889
110
Handan Iron and Steel JTB1
1.37
0.78
0.59
16.8091
230
Raw Water CTP1
0.89
0.03
0.86
17.6591
179
Steel and Vanadium PGP1
0.991
0.1
0.891
17.8315
259
Haier JTP1
0.747
0
0.747
18.3641
272
Jagot QCB1
2.731
1.6
1.131
21.5019
277
Potash JTP1
1.684
0
1.684
22
316
Long Electric CWB1
2.601
0.97
1.631
25.807
280
China International Marine Containers ZYP1
1.054
0
1.054
30.6963
463
Wuhan Iron and Steel JTB1
0.626
0
0.626
30.8871
97
Baotou JTB1
0.845
0.15
0.695
33.2536
225
China Merchants Bank CMP1
0.374
0
0.374
33.6387
380
Jagot QCP1
0.635
0
0.635
34.3156
277
Wanhua HXP1
1.343
0
1.343
36.3563
252
Maotai JCP1
1.04
0
1.04
40.7659
285
Vanke HRP1
0.038
0
0.038
42.368
18
Wu Liang YGP1
1.157
0
1.157
46.3506
594
First JTB1
1.648
0
1.648
46.4407
249
It is worth recalling that the current valuation of warrants is a huge bubble, almost all of the warrants have been bubbling turns off, the bubble has not rule out the valuation of warrant callback possible, in which investors of investment risks.
Finally, we propose the main points warrants investment, we recommend investors to participate in the future, when warrants speculation, we must understand that investment in three essentials: 1, close attention to market index up or down, that only a market consolidation in the broader market in the leather on the way down the stage only with speculative opportunities, we can actively speculation warrants; 2, warrants can only do T +0, and control points and stop points, good earnings, once the firm will have to open positions below the stop-loss can not be the same as the operation of the stock under the stop-loss cover their short positions in order to wait for some sort of relief; 3, the proposed warrants operation strategy as far as possible short-term mainly because, after all warrants variety of price fluctuations is too frequent and complex, long-term predictability of small.
