Category: Money tips Release Date: 2006-10-30
Source: Guangzhou Bandung
Abstract: Today's big city once again fell, showing a downward Powei bad shape. We need long-short pairs of the reasons for both sides to conduct a comprehensive order to more fully grasp the direction of the market outlook. Under the present circumstances the operation strategy is to ... ...
Big city fell again today, in which the Shanghai Composite Index fell 30.91 points, Shen Chengzhi fell 62.67 points. Shen Chengzhi has fallen below the previous days low, but also broke out of six mid-low, showing a downward Powei bad shape. To this end we are each of the parties is necessary for long-short look at the rationale for a comprehensive collation, in order to more fully grasp the direction of the market outlook.
A current look at the short side of the main reasons there is an empty
At present, the short side to see the empty main reasons are:
First, from today's disk read, the index continued to plunge, has fallen through Wednesday's low and showed a steep decline of the situation again. The leading index fell, and that is leading this year's first non-ferrous metal plate and the plate scarce resource stocks, 600.55 thousand of Tianwei limit down, two gold stocks are also thought to lower limit. It is clear, from the disk of view, today's Big City is a full and complete weakness.
Second, from the recent Quotes of view, unilateral broader market fell more than days, in which Shen Chengzhi, deep KLCI has been 8 days in a row,. Also shows that among the broader market is extremely weak.
Third, from the fundamentals, the current macroeconomic overheating is more obvious and the first half the size of loans has reached into more than 8 year, while the central bank to implement macro-control policy, has added a rate twice the rate of increase margin deposits. If the economic growth rate is still too fast, the central bank may at any time to take more stringent measures.
Fourth, from the supply-demand relationship, the current expansion of the floods keep coming, the super large-cap stocks continue to issue, Bank of China, Datong-Qinhuangdao, Air China, but behind ICBC, the rumors of a Societe Generale. 5 a week next week issued new shares, the number is quite staggering. The share reform, the lifting of the ban restricted stock sale in August also marks the peak.
On the other hand, the new capital market is also substantially reduced. These two months significantly reduced the number of new accounts.
It can be said of supply and demand is far greater than is currently showing a demand for serious situation.
Second, the current multi-party point of view mainly
First of all, today's strong petrochemical plate once. In 600028, China Petrochemical, Shanghai Petrochemical 600,688's lead, once a comprehensive start-signs. The plate has not risen for six months, with great upside potential. And it is the last one does not share reform on the influence of big city, a large plate. It shares may be imposed at any time be changed, but once the share reform, the plate will have a better increase.
Second, the current largest city, has been falling for several days, which have been dropping Shen Chengzhi 8 days, from a technical standpoint the possibility of broad market rally at any time. Should pay attention to the objective law of extremes meet during this period is used.
Third, high in early July, when the main force did not fully into the broader market madness, there were clear signs of depression great city of climax. This means that the main at a high level does not come out alive, this time to adjust the Xi Pan is only the main acts, but it washed particularly vicious. Afternoon there is still a main re-pulled, and another record high, in order to achieve distribution process.
Fourth, today's big city, fell again, which is the leading non-ferrous metal plates, with obvious signs of phase last fall.
Fifth, the broad market is still in a major bull market can not be sustained without a substantial rebound sell into.
Third, the current situation of the operation strategy
Big City has fallen through a low in mid-June - Bank of China listed on the permit due to the impact of temporarily on the chart is not fallen through, but in fact should be fallen through, while Shen Chengzhi, deep KLCI has dropped wore. From a technical analysis perspective, a major crossing place after the fall to below, there should be a Fan Chou. Therefore, rebound of the stock market could come at any time. Therefore:
First, in the current position over to see the empty, which is technically the same risk.
Second, the more sensible approach is, etc. After the tape out of the rally, and then be judged from the rebound characteristics of the nature of Quotes, and make decisions accordingly. May be more sensible, more in line with technical requirements.
Third, in the current state must maintain a healthy mentality, we must guard against losses arising due to the early rush to move flat, while the rush to enter the market operation, emotions. It is said that the casino in Macau on the lose the most miserable people are those who lose red-eye, and most wanted to winning people. Because by that time people have irrational, and whose judgments are most likely to commit major wrong.
Fourth, in the present circumstances, is most needed is a calm, objective, comprehensive analysis of Quotes. Refrain from a variety of public opinion, the message is influenced by it. All of the facts from the disk, everything from objective reality.
