Category: Money tips Release Date: 2006-02-07
Source: Wuhan New Rand Authors: Yu Kai
With the super-carrier landing high-profile Bank of China, Hu Zhi by its promotion of the year once hit a new high of 1757 points, but was subject to a macroeconomic shocks and internal mechanism of the dual role of the market, against the big shock was almost all the way down, and the parties and the war is and back, once the end of the two cities under the stock broke 30 days moving average, is clearly apparent that short-term market weakness signs.
Funding pressure constraints Quotes
The recent market decline is no doubt a direct incentive to the acceleration of a large IPO, refinancing, as well as the sharp spin-market macro-control measures more stringent expectations. IPO case, including the Datong-Qinhuangdao Railway, Air return to A shares issued and the future implementation of the "A + H" simultaneous issue of Chinese Industrial and Commercial Bank of China. The more stringent macro-control measures include raising interest rates is expected to rumors. Because of this decline can be achieved shortly before and after the market's positive drivers is relatively limited, as investors worried about regulation and expansion of much more than before, so obviously hopes on recovery in the market is not realistic.
At the same time, the outstanding shares of restricted cash flow pressure significantly. According to the provisions of stock reform, under normal circumstances, shares of the completion of 12 months after the reform, G Unit, the proportion of restricted sale of shares held by less than 5% of the shareholders will be free cash flow of the stock, while holding more than 5% of the sale of shares may be limited to reduction of non - more than 5% of the total share capital; shares 24 months after the completion of reform, holding more than 5% of the total reduction may be limited to selling no more than 10% of the total share capital; 36 months after the sale of shares of all the restrictions lifted. According to statistics, as of December 31, 2006, a total of 198 G Unit, part of the restricted stock will be lifting the ban sale restrictions are expected to limit the market value of 79.385 billion sale of shares in the second half after another into the secondary market liquidity. From the non-tradable shares of a specific time expired to lift the embargo point of view, in August there were 32 less than 5% of non-tradable shares lock-up period is over, this part of the lifting of the ban sale of shares of restricted negotiable market capitalization of about 35.247 billion yuan, the market capital pressure was significantly .
Adjustment time may be longer
As of July 27, Shanghai and Shenzhen listed companies reported a total of 98 semi-annual report for 2006. Published semi-annual report shows net profit of listed companies fell Jinliang Cheng. Despite the issuance of the number of semi-annual report of listed companies is not much but combined with other factors, 100 the company's decline in performance of listed companies is likely to map in the first half of this year's harvest less than ideal. The performance of listed companies due to growth and price growth has seen a certain degree of departure, then the main role of this adjustment is to make the short term appear to have lower levels of high valuations, earnings growth of listed companies in order to obtain the support of for the next round of bull market and thus lay a solid foundation. From this point of understanding, the longer this adjustment, the more adequate level, post of the stock market will be more optimistic. In addition, if the adjustment early in June mainly for explosive Quotes May the words of the amendment, this should Quotes is a multi-year began last November Quotes of the amendment, will be a higher level of adjustment, continuous time may be longer.
Qi Zhang a total or no longer appear
Although the market faces many unfavorable factors, but we still believe that the latter part of the evolution of the market will be dominated by structural differentiation, Qi Zhang a total fall is unlikely.
From the mid-term time horizon, the global economy has shown up late cycle characteristics, internal and external liquidity is increasingly tight, the uncertainty in the global financial markets intensified against the backdrop of rising risk premiums, can no longer expect A-share market to rely on internal funds and promote the formation rising trend. In the current implementation of the QFII system, so that domestic and foreign investment philosophy, capital flows are to achieve docking situations, A-share market will undoubtedly have a long-term attractiveness to global investors. In such a market context, good quality, reasonable and even low valuation of large cap blue chips because of its high level of transparency will also be prospects for a clear and will inevitably become the mainstay of the market, on the contrary, underperformance Unit, garbage stocks, the prospects for a cause for concern.
