Category: Money tips Release Date: 2007-02-09
Source: Shanghai Morning Post Author: Zhang Yi Zhen
Senpachi How far away from us?
Senpachi very far, looking back, the last time on the Shanghai Composite Index, see Senpachi is September 25, 2001, 1845 day and night passed.
Senpachi also very close, to look forward this week, the highest point of 1793.14 from 1800 points is only 6.86 points, 0.38% gain.
See Senpachi in October, in most people appears to be a certainty. But how far can Senpachi later, which would be your passion and intellect be grasped.
When will show up Senpachi
Although the Shanghai Composite Index reached Senpachi little suspense, but when the see Senpachi, but it is still an issue worth exploring. ICBC next Thursday (19 days) online prospectus, 27 listed. These two time nodes divided, there is three time periods. Is it pre-IPO, listed before and after the listing, see Senpachi, though the midline investors, is an insignificant problem, but for the short-term passenger run, determines the operation of the recent train of thought.
Bank of China, etc. from a previous issue of the experience of large-cap stocks, although the index of large capitalization stocks included in the listing, they often can be ascribed to an important index of the short-term momentum, but before the large-cap stocks listed on the index rather go stronger and more solid. Considering the current point and more than 10 points from 1800 points, however, there are market participants that the ICBC offering before and after the listing before the Shanghai Composite Index exceeded 1,800 points, the possibility of the greatest. However, some market participants believe that this week there is a gap in covering needs. ICBC's IPO, the large amounts of funds withdrawn from the secondary market, a market may lead to index covering the gap, waiting for ICBC's listing, the index only seized the opportunity to break through 1,800 points.
Although the specific timing, market participants have differences, but one thing in common: the closer the ICBC listing, chances strength index.
ICBC's performance is crucial
In the 1800-point there is no doubt that under the premise of 1800 points, how far after the index can become the core of deductive Quotes. Some passion, we naturally want to go straight to 1900 after 1800 points, 2000 points, and even higher, but the reason tells us that only rise and not fall in the stock market does not exist, in order to rise even higher, appropriate adjustments deemed useful.
Open the Bank of China, charts, we can clearly see that the stock market hit a day high 4.05 yuan, 3.22 yuan after hitting all the way down low, precisely with the Shanghai Composite Index to adjust the previous wave of sync. It is no exaggeration to say that the Bank of China listing, pricing and after the trend for the Shanghai Composite Index during the walk soft, have a decisive impact.
So, this issue is not the same low range of Industrial and Commercial Bank of China, will be repeated in the listing of Bank of China's history, fell to induce pullback, then? In many market participants view, this will be after the listing of ICBC the biggest risk lies. Taking into account the unprecedented scale of the bank, even if the market fell after the Bank rate of less than tragic, but the index of mass destruction puts among the best.
Of course, the ICBC listing is an important variable because of its "green shoe" mechanism for the introduction. Because of its A shares lead underwriters have no more than 1.95 billion shares over-allotment option, and within 30 days after the listing of the main underwriters, may use the "green shoe" financial stability price. 1.95 billion shares, according to the maximum release of 3.12 yuan, that is, nearly 60 billion yuan of funds. Have this ammunition in hand, the short term I am afraid that the bank's share price may not be as ugly as the Bank of China.
At the end facing the real test of
"Green Shoe" The introduction of the system, the management can only be issued for the bank's determination to succeed not fail can be seen. If the lead underwriter to successfully defend it for 30 days, then the role of ICBC Dinghaishenzhen decided, after a mid-tape difficult to fall, more is the growing competition from individual stocks. However, once the "green shoe" running out of money, 30-day period of price stability in the past, and the test of ICBC as well as the broader market really coming.
ICBC, as the world's largest IPO, its meaning and after the rumors of China Life, Chalco, China Mobile as well as in the oil market as well as the back is quite different. From a negative perspective, the next issue for the large-cap stocks to defend the decrease in the intensity of fear, index of room for adjustment may be increased; but from the positive side, even the successful listing of ICBC can, large capitalization stocks, what are you afraid of?
Is precisely the impact of these two distinct intertwined, determines the ICBC release, in particular, a stable trend after the end of the period there is a huge uncertainty. Management, the main market will be what kind of attitude and what kind of a rhythm after dealing with a number of large capitalization stocks listed on the line, the trend for the future have a significant impact. A sharp rise when the stock market or a more substantial correction, are normal.
Quotes can be adjusted gold
ICBC's listing, even if there are adjustments will not be deep. After so many large-cap stocks also took turns listing, the entire market environment will continue to be stable and the main tone. Accompanied by a number of large capitalization stocks issued, 1900 points, 2000 points, and even the all-time high was 2245.43 points, the breakthrough Nothing is impossible, although this index may only be virtual climb up, but as long as market confidence in the active degrees in, the chance of�
The key is, in the broader market continued active, and the prices continue to be renewed, what stocks should we choose to share this wave of big beef Quotes do? After all, the flow of the current market value of 757.5 billion yuan compared with early May has been a 55% rise, reaching 1.18 trillion yuan.
Market, ultra-fast expansion, capital side constraints, determines the sector rotation, stocks differentiation is inevitable. Therefore, Over the next two and a half months, the ability to defend or expand the fruits of victory this year, but also a test of the wisdom of our stock selection.
