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Data:2009-12-12 2:34
1, the index closed higher stocks differentiation
In April in Shanghai and Shenzhen B-share market in general showed up trend, despite the index appears sideways in late April, but in early to mid-period of time remained shocks upward pattern, the overall performance slightly better than in March. In Shanghai and Shenzhen B refers to the month were up 2.76% and 7.42%; over the same period in the A-share market to restore investor confidence and capital against the backdrop of the influx of strong performance, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 11.05 percent, the Shenzhen Composite Index was up 9.42% . The rise in stock market activity driven amplification, March SSE B shares traded 1.179 billion shares, an increase of Jinsan Cheng; 1.844 billion shares traded in Shenzhen, up release of approximately Qi Cheng (see Table 1).
Table 1: Shanghai and Shenzhen B shares and the decline in the Shanghai and Shenzhen Composite Index rose in control
05-12-3005 up 05 top 05 drop minimum 06-3-3106-4-28 in March rose fell on the decline in permits in April rose 62.02 -18.02% B refers 84.22 50.32 88.31 90.74 +2.36% +2.76% Shanghai KLCI 1161.06 -8.32% 1328.53 998.22 1298.30 1440.22 -0.06% +11.05% -11.11% 195.38 Shenzhen B refers 277.67 184.53 263.85 283.42 +5.51% +7.42% Shenzhen Composite Index 278.54 -11.80% 334.14 235.64 323.45 353.94 +2.59% + 9.42%Source: Shanghai and Shenzhen Stock Exchange
Up with the market as a whole corresponds to that in April there has been no full range of stocks rising trend, only half of SSE's shares closed up, rising stocks in Shenzhen is also inadequate Liu Cheng. Overall, the blue-chip stocks generally sells but the gains varied Shenzhen CIMC B, Shanghai stock market Zhenhua B-Annual Report of the better performance of the stock rose a larger share of Huangshan B, Hangzhou Steam Turbine B, Changyu B, also the there are gains, takes bullish fundamentals for the company's sake. Matsuoka B or Jushou of nearly 80% of higher income are obviously more alternative, and the company fundamentals and flat, although the phasing out of the apparel industry and an increase in tourism investment, but the performance increase is still some way off, stock prices rise sharply possible reason is that the unit was to manipulate.
Most of the larger decline in the stock are not too good performance of varieties, including Shanghai stock market Dahua B shares, San Mao B shares, Shenzhen City, * ST East China Sea, B, etc., which in March fell about 20% of the species, 2005, or quarter of 2006 a majority of losses or decreased year on year. Another great pre-or the poor performance of real estate stocks in April, Wanke B, Merchants B, Shenzhen property B Dengjun decline among the top 10 in Shenzhen, Shanghai stock market long-term recommended by Metro B shares despite the rise among the top 10 bit, but at the end of the callback is not small. In addition, individual performance of the better stocks, such as mass B shares, friendship and B shares, also have certain adjustments, ranking among the top 10 fall (see Table 2 and Table 3).
Table 2:4 on the Shanghai and Shenzhen rose among the top 10 stocks
Rank code name or code name in April to close in April or closing 1900955 Matsuoka B 77.03% 0.655 200039 CIMC B 37.61% 10.5 2 900935-Yang Chen B shares 37.88% 0.404 200.77 thousand Wu Guo B 36.00% 3.4 3 900942 Huangshan B shares 32.35% 0.9 200,054 to build Mount B 28.57% 1.89 4 900947 Zhenhua B shares 28.07% 1.989 200,771 Hangzhou Steam Turbine B 27.97% 13.45 5 900926 Baosight B shares 20.12% 0.609 200596 * ST Furui B 26.75% 2.89 6 900956 Dombey B shares 16.24% 0.272 200.55 thousand Jiangling B 23.98% 5.48 7 900950 Park B Shares 15.38% 0.81 200055 Fong B 23.82% 2.31 8 900953 Kama B shares 12.00% 0.196 200.57 thousand Su Changchai B 23.43% 2.16 9 900939 Huili B Shares 11.80% 0.199 200,028 line B 22.38% 3.5 10 900946 ST Qingqi B 11.63% 0.144 200056 Shenguo Shang B 21.17% 2.69 Table 3:4 drop on the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock ranked among the top 10 code name or code name of the rose in April to close in April to close a 900,951 Dahua B Shares -22.27% 0.199 200011 Shenzhen property B -22.42% 2.56 2 900922 San Mao B Shares -20.52% 0.213 200613 * ST East China Sea B -15.94% 0.58 3 900923 Friendship B Shares -16.57% 0.599 200,152 Shandong Airlines B -- 13.61% 1.27 4.90091 million sea-B-shares -14.74% 0.399 200,058 Shen Saige B -13.18% 1.12 5 900920 Shanghai Diesel B Shares -14.74% 0.324 200024 Merchants B -12.74% 11.5 6 900930 Post-pass B Shares -13.25% 0.347 200,413 Gemstone B -12.30% 1.07 7 900918 Shanghai Yaohua Pilkington B Shares -13.17% 0.323 200017 * ST China B -11.25% 0.71 8 900906 China Textile B Shares -12.79% 0.15 200,761 steel B -10.72% 3.33 9 900907 * ST Development B -- 12.66% 0.207 200002 China Vanke B -0.1061 8 10 900903 XD mass B -10.97% 0.521 200037 Shennan Electric B -10.26% 3.76 2, B-share companies stock reform of
Began in October 2005, Shanghai and Shenzhen B share issuing companies have launched a share reform program, as of May 12, there are already more than Liucheng issued shares of listed companies in reform programs, more than four into the Company completed the share reform. Since the data table is too large, this is no longer redundant column.
Most listed companies have adopted a simple way Major Holders right price Overall, Major Holders higher than the market average. Major Holders highest rates of tires, non-tradable shareholders to take on the circulation of A shareholders for every 10 shares of stock of the price of sending seven programs, but because of the company A shares in circulation share of total capital ratio of less than 3%, non-tradable shareholders on the price of sending the actual was very low.
Is not purely Major Holders of the companies, including Major Holders plus dividends to the price of the program (such as China Merchants and Shennan electricity); simple cash program (as firewood); warrants program (such as China Vanke); there are relatively specific, such as Jiangling Motors The program, from major shareholders to the circulation of A shares of 10 sent to 12.10 yuan in cash, given the company's mid-term for every 10 shares were 3.59 yuan in cash, shares of major shareholders, change of price is actually derived from the cash dividend will be forwarded to the circulation of A shareholders. For the B shareholders, there is no be much of an impact.
Comparison of these types of programs, non-tradable shareholders have no mention of B shares to shareholders on the price of their payment problems. That the SFC and other five ministries and commissions jointly issued guidance on split share structure reform, as well as implementation methods to change the SFC issued shares of the details have pointed out that the split share structure reform is the A-share market thing, the company issued B shares share reform program of the decision by the A Shareholders , mutatis mutandis, the rules of existing shareholders of the General Assembly to convene the shareholders meeting the relevant A-share market, combined with Internet voting share reform program of the decision whether to adopt.
Programs from these companies impact analysis of their B shares, the majority of companies A, B shares parity relations are very poor, even if the implementation of the Major Holders of A shares on the price to current prices, the difference between the two is still not small; but there are also individual companies such as Vanke B shares more expensive than A shares.
There are no companies that engage in share reform, a considerable part of the poor operating performance, equity is pledged or frozen varieties, which changed the way the company's future stock may be Major Holders plus asset restructuring, if the business fundamentals through stock reform and reorganization of access to promotion, then the would be a good option.
Third, affect the future trend of the factors B shares
RMB appreciation and QDII trends affecting the future of B shares of the two factors. Since the RMB exchange rate in March quickly move up to May 15 the first time the level of 1:8, and the United States YAHOO financial headlines, the RMB appreciation on the B-share market constitutes a positive impact, which is due to the yuan-denominated assets in foreign currency currency appreciation in the course of favor, for export-oriented enterprises, and some manufacturing industries company, RMB appreciation will increase their pressure on the operation, especially in the downstream sector of the listed companies, deeply the pain of rising prices of raw materials, product there is no pricing power companies own many of them operating loss.
For the real estate sector stocks, one is driven by asset appreciation, on the other macro-control real estate companies also bring pressure on the operation. It is said that in the first half of this year with several billions of dollars of foreign capital into China property market, housing prices from Jiangsu, Zhejiang wave spread throughout the country. Bring great price too high because of people's livelihood, and the Bank in April of this year before new loans of more than half of the annual plan, the central bank to tighten the end of four measures to raise the benchmark lending rate of 0.27%, which is the real estate stocks a bad signal. In addition, the early or too large real-estate stocks itself there is a big profit-taking expectations, and thus short-term should avoid such stocks. However, for property stocks and real estate stocks should be differentiated between, such as the Shanghai stock market Lu Jia B shares, Jinqiao B shares, mostly in real estate development and property leasing the main accounting system and a more careful, next year after the implementation of new accounting standards have greater assets revaluation space, bargain-hunting may be appropriate to the audience.
QDII is now in full swing, the Social Security Fund has opened an account in Hong Kong, insurance companies, the use of foreign exchange funds have also been arranged, followed by a real sense of the QDII have to come out. China's securities and foreign exchange management agency may at some point this year to allow domestic institutions to use yuan to purchase foreign exchange investment Hong Kong stocks, which could have an impact on the market, but not necessarily a decisive impact. I looked at state-owned enterprises listed in Hong Kong in the Mainland and Hong Kong local blue chip market conditions, most companies earnings and book value is higher than B-share market similar to the company, some of the stock valuation levels even higher than A shares, so QDII launch of the B shares affecting more reflected in the level of investor psychology.
For the B-share market, because the A-share market has basically been open to foreign investment, its situation is even more embarrassing situation. Investors generally expect A, B shares of the merger have become increasingly close, then rushing to a share before the merger; while A-share market up after years of B shares also have a greater role in pushing up. However, as the author in the preceding period, as described in the article, the management since there is no change in the stock at the same time to solve A, B shares combined, then put in the share reform process, is highly unlikely that the relevant policies, but added in due course after the completion of the share reform introduced the relevant solution more likely. According to stock reform process, basically completed this year, the possibility of larger, thus solve the issue of B shares are more likely to be a priority next year. Of course, in the B shares pending a final settlement, the market remains band of operation opportunities.
4, operation strategy
The author believes that the market rose sharply after the short-term, there may be some adjustments, from early May a few trading days this term, the head SSE B shares have been signs of burst on the scene. From an operational perspective, investors should consider the appropriate to sell or the larger species, or for some smaller varieties, especially the fundamentals that support the variety can be adjusted to take advantage of market timing bargain-hunting participation, but also control the position necessary, the proposed ratio of not more than 70% of the positions, but it should not be less than 40%.
Decided to price long-term trend is still the performance of listed companies and dividends, and investors can consider bargain hunting in the intraday price-earnings ratio and book value pairs of the low dividend yield and net return on assets double high varieties, the newly disclosed 2005 reports and a quarterly report of 2006 gives us more information (see Table 4).
Table 4: Shanghai and Shenzhen in 2005 earnings per share among the top 10 stocks
However, stock selection and timing are two different concepts, some time ago I focus on the recommended blue-chip stocks such as Metro B shares, Yitai B shares, the set B, Changyu B, Hangzhou Steam Turbine B and so on, although the company's fundamentals Yes, but this round of Quotes or have large, short-term may not chasing a high.
For some results are not good company, it is best to be avoided, but some of the company's future existence of the possibility of improving fundamentals, as indicated in electric B shares, the chlor-alkali B shares, electromechanical B shares, * ST Lianhua B, * ST China B, ST Oe B, etc., the share price adjusted after a certain level there are opportunities, but should pay attention to grasp the timing of intervention.
At the same time the current issue A, B shares and will also be issued A shares and H shares of the company, compared, A, B share price difference was significantly greater than A, H shares the purchase price, while those lower price-earnings ratio, dividend rate is now stable B-shares, and related industries compared to H-shares of a certain parity edge. Therefore, investors should not because of prices to the neglect of investment opportunities.
