Category: Money tips Release Date: 2006-03-11
Source: Morgan Stanley Investment Authors: XU Zhi
Prior to the Bank of China listing, the Shanghai index reached 1700 points, in this position, waiting for intentionally compound breakthrough.
After the focus is on breakthrough
Many organizations in predicting the Bank of China IPO positioning, most of the optimists think it will run to 4 yuan at the top, there are a relatively conservative person is forecast to be 3.60 yuan in the vicinity, that is not forecast to be below the issue price. And no wonder, since the Bank of China H-share price recently broke through the 3.60 Hong Kong dollars. Expect the Bank of China listing of positioning does not depend on a formula, but on the strength of the market speculation. Experienced workers in the international market trend, the current market circumstances may happen.
Whether the Bank of China following the final receipt of 3.6 yuan, or more than 4 yuan is not the most central issue. In fact, people should be concerned about the trend after its listing, rather than simply positioning. If the Bank of China at 3.80 yuan in the vicinity of the price, its price-earnings ratio will reach 30 times. Such a level far beyond other market large cap stocks, banking stocks, blue chips. In this case, its continued upstream space can be said that very small, the first day of orientation the higher the smaller this space.
Therefore, the Bank of China said the most important thing is that it experienced after the first day of orientation is able to maintain a stable trend. If we can maintain a stable operating state, then the bottom there is the Bank of China, the market will be following along with the rising in tandem with other species, then break through a period of time after the broad market still viable. If the Bank of China listed on the short-term ascribed to a very clear, then the tape will be looked very spectacular breakthroughs, but not better the next day, because the good times have been finished in one day. The market will feel confused
If the Bank of China listing Gaokaidizou or Dikaigaozou too obvious trend, then the center line of the index are not very conducive to running, the most favorable condition is stable correction. But no matter how to run after the Bank of China listed on the market undergo a short period of excitement, will enter a period of relative confusion.
Stock reform is close to completion, from a sense, it only Sinopec, and the rest of the company has nothing to do overall. Another objective of the reform, has introduced new from the old, if the Bank of China successfully listed means that new from the old success. So the Bank of China listing is a sign, which is the split share structure reform of the celebration dinner. Casual dinner after the share reform will gradually fade out of history. The stock market over the past year has been shifted to turn around the stock, waiting for new from the old newborn, Bank of China listing, you can say that this intermediate targets have been basically completed.
The incentive to adjust
From the middle of last year in July this year, continuous upstream of the stock market has been going on for a whole year. From the stock reform to the present, the reform of the factors that have been the main driving force for the uplink. Until now, everything's going smoothly, but when entering the closing stages, there is one fly in the ointment.
Fly in the ointment is that the new launch of new shares from the old progeny positioned too high. Market speculation is very warm atmosphere, the high positioning of new shares are expected, but the combination of the ongoing share reform, how many have so little uncoordinated. If people still remember a year ago on the stock price change on the major controversies of that market, they should remember that on the two kinds of differences in the cost of equity in different historical discussion, it is the existence of such differences would constitute a basis for the subsequent right price. However, after the release of new shares tradable, at least in the short term, this difference not only has not narrowed, but has further expanded.
New from the old small-cap stocks only after the first public release of international price-earnings ratio (19.83 times) than in the history of the first plate in the small-cap stocks, and into a new split in the shares issued under the price-earnings ratio (16.35 times). The first full circulation of Bank of China issued by large capitalization stocks over the issue of price-earnings ratio is also the history of large cap stocks Sinopec.
Afternoon will be three steps is expected to break through - confused - to adjust. After the break can go depends on how far the Bank of China can maintain the stability of the trend of how long the range of adjustments, then the latter part of the funds depends on how much surface can give support.
