Category: Money Tips Date: 2007-01-15
Baosteel shares resume trading, its publicly traded warrants will soon, as nine years after the stock market to resume trading warrants only the interests of the first type of derivatives, Baoshan Iron and Steel being the industry warrants attention.
Scarcity + Leverage: Baosteel Warrants will be so popular these days?
Baosteel, as part of the program to the price of Baosteel Group, the duration of release for the 378 days of the European warrants, the exercise price of 4.5 yuan. The number of circulation issued to all shareholders for every 10 shares were distributed to a total amount of 387.7 million copies.
"Baosteel Warrants doctrinal and most likely set off a speculative atmosphere," said Ge Xinyuan Guoxin Securities. He reached this conclusion based on three judgments: First, the domestic market has always been "fried new" habit; while the Hong Kong market in recent years made by the riches myth is undoubtedly warrants for domestic individual investors have a demonstration effect; second, from the Long Electric resumption on the first day of the performance, Baosteel shares resume trading on the first day should be a smooth performance, which would warrant the price to play a positive impact on the first day; third, from the cities of Shenzhen and Shanghai so far the circumstances warrant the analog Trader , warrants trading price of its higher degree of deviation from the intrinsic value: a value of 9 points in Shenzhen trading price of the warrants range of -0.6 at 0.01 yuan RMB. Ge Xinyuan said that if pushed to the Baosteel warrants a higher price, it is possible to increase the value of the risks of return on the warrants market in the future development of the negative.
United Securities analyst Yang Ge, financial engineering is to express a different point of view, he considered that despite the high leverage of warrants attractive to investors, short-term does not exclude Baosteel Warrants are subject to larger fluctuations, but the key is to see whether it will be manipulation. Yang Ge, said Baosteel Warrants subject to manipulation is unlikely: first, the management approach warrants have been issued at least in theory reduces the possibility of manipulation; Secondly, the existing trading and stock warrants linked to reform the program, which makes a special warrant transactions nature: that the majority of warrants held by the fund and other institutional investors, their rational operation will play the role of price stability.
Jinhai Road, south of the Fund expressed liquidity factors that could cause short-term price of Baosteel Warrants have a higher intrinsic value than the premium, but the current market and nine years ago, the market has undergone a qualitative change to the participation of institutional investors based of the main reason the price and long-term operation will warrant more reasonable.
Baosteel Warrants to interact with are stocks?
Baosteel Baosteel shares C of E and the interactions lead to the same concern to the industry. Industry generally believes that the upcoming resumption of the four week Baosteel will affect the pricing of the warrants was pricing.
Shenyin policy analyst Shi Heng, said the comprehensive consideration of various factors, Baoshan Iron and Steel shares after the right price should be around 2.4, according to the closing price of 5.14 yuan price of auto-ex 4.15 yuan, consider the price of the company early on the first day of the performance, as well as China Yangtze Power 14.6% The gains, and to consider the company's commitment to 4.53 yuan repurchases and dividends, Shen million that the company pays the price on the first day after the price may fluctuate between 4.6-5 million.
"Buy-back price of 4.53 yuan higher guiding significance," Shi Heng new emphasis Road, "the price of future performance of the company's share price drop after the support level and the calculation of the value of warrants have a great reference value. And if according to 4.8 yuan stock estimates, its warrant price is 0.6 yuan. "
So, Baosteel is valid in its warrants (a total of 378 days) it is a result of cyclical factors affecting the valuation of it? Yang Yun Shen 10000 Policy Research Department, said that if the dividend of not less than 0.32 yuan, 4.53 yuan corresponding to its share price, then the annual interest rates of up to 7.06 percent, Baoshan Iron and Steel will be able to withstand the economic downturn cycle performance of the downside risks.
The number of policy analyst at Everbright Securities Jian-Bo Yang Baoshan Iron and Steel using Monte Carlo simulation results of warrants and stock prices shows that in the case of certain other conditions, with the opening price of Baosteel higher stock prices have also increased due date, but 4.81 yuan is a critical point. More than this price, Baosteel's share price will be downward pressure. In his view, Baoshan Iron and Steel Complex in about a year after-hours time, from the worst to the best of circumstances, Baosteel price of 3.5 yuan to simulate range between 6.8 yuan; while in the complex after-hours prior to the warrants expiration date, in the About two-thirds of the time, Baosteel's stock hub will be around 4.8 to 5.3 yuan, while Baoshan Iron and Steel warrants valued at approximately between 0.54 to 1.10 yuan.
Most agencies believe that there will not rule out short-term departure from the Certificate of Entitlement and is the trend of stocks, but shares of Baoshan Iron and Steel Certificate of Entitlement and is possible that the interaction effects of this can also be paid from the Hong Kong market with its line of performance warrants to find evidence.
