Category: Money Tips Date: 2007-07-11
Bargain-hunting buying not selling does not escape the top, this is a very strange idea, then the investor a profit on what basis do?
In fact, this is the correct operation of ideas, and investment earnings are not contradictory. Foreign exchange market and other markets, have to face greater risk, so the error will result in a loss of transactions, to avoid the risks and profits will always be a pair of difficult to reconcile contradictions. Since investors enter the foreign exchange market, it must strike a balance between the two, that is when I say "do not bargain-hunting did not escape the top," the true meaning.
What is a "non-bargain-hunting" and "not escape the top"
"No bargain-hunting", that is buying the Do not expect to buy a minimum. "Non-escape-top", that is, the sale Do not expect to sell at the highest.
If you just from the profit point of view, all investors are the same idea, of course, hope that every time the operation can be bought at the lowest selling at the highest, so that the greatest profits. The reason everyone knows that in the end be able to do that? The answer of course is no. In the foreign exchange markets, the dollar fell once into the concrete will be down to what the position is difficult to predict, so the forecast is simply no practical significance of the operation. Falling trend should not be lightly made at the end, not the end of the meaning of words does not mean that we do not concern has been formed at the bottom. In fact the contrary, we do so than the so-called expert can predict the bottom of the lower prices to buy more secure. Because the exchange rate falling, regardless of the method used to predict the bottom, will inevitably are subjective speculation. May not be perceived at the bottom end of the exchange rate may be a continuous fall.
"No bargain-hunting" for example, real
We are an example. June 5 this year, the euro was 1.2976 from a high point into the decline of the stock market adjustment, and after 4-day decline in the position reached 1.2700. From the intuitive sense of perspective, there is a strong support 1.2700. Why do I say? From early May, the euro was at 1.2700 has been the top running order rectangular shape, so when the euro exchange rate once again arrived at the location, investors will naturally think that will once again be supported. Many people thought based on subjective bargain-hunting buying at 1.2700 euros, but this time the euro and has not been supported directly Powei down quilt on the same day. Many of them again in 1.2600 bargain-hunting cover their short positions, the effect is fitted, the euro has fallen to 1.2480 before the final climb Qi Wen, two single-stuck with 220 points, respectively, and 120 points. The process of decline in the euro, we can see the euro at the end of any subjective guess where are meaningless, in the operation are likely to make mistakes.
Then at the bottom of the euro should be how to copy it? June 23, the lowest reached 1.2480 euros, the euro quickly rebounded the next day will be the day before the Yinxian completely recovered, at least that the euro is likely to shape the bottom of the band, pay close attention! June 28, 29 days, the euro despite a slight adjustment, but never fall below 1.2520, June 23 did not fall below the limit of bits, which indicates that after more than two weeks after the bottom of the shock, the short side of the force have been exhausted, the bulls ready to attack; June 29, the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates by 25 basis points as scheduled, the dollar's interest rate raised to 5.25%. Bulls finally got the power outlet, two-day gain in nearly 1.28 and eventually ascribed to 1.2850, up 300 points. Therefore, the correct methods of operation are June 28 or 29 in between 1.2520 ~ 1.2550 bargain-hunting buying. Prices speak for themselves, and the prices posted clearly tells us that the bottom has generated, this time not to buy when to buy it? Having said that, at this location to buy 1.27 and 1.26 or lower compared to a lot of that in this sub-low bid a safe, low-cost, is the best place to buy points, and this is what we call "non - bargain-hunting "means.
This example also illustrates one reason: we refer to as bargain-hunting, does not mean that we do not want to buy at the bottom, but that should buy in the most secure is not the lowest point at the bottom --- but the second low. On the surface the cost of buying higher than the lowest point, but in fact it is the safest time to buy. I have met such a investor in a downward trend in every day, looking for the end of early put all of the capital investment they think the bottom has gone, and then looked at the exchange rate down day by day, and so really the bottom comes, has been used best food with no way out. Imagine the bottom, and the investors do with it? Falling trend in the patient and preserve their strength to maintain the most important, using the best steel blade, the move funds to buy low in the most secure is the best choice not seem to buy the lowest point, but the result often than those who wiseacre people to buy lower cost and ultimately earn more.
"No escape-top" real example
The reader to understand the "non-bargain-hunting" after the deep meaning, for "not escape the top" will understand. Meeting the people I have met many friends, speaking oddly enough, they are inseparable from the cycle of such a mindset: when they are stuck, when the beginning may be very anxious; deep cover of the following, but calm, it seems stuck with an easy conscience ; if the book profit on the fluctuations, the trouble came, ate no incense could not sleep, like got afraid of heights, fear of cooked duck and then fly away, the final result is a bit hasty unwinding earn a little money, then looked at Quotes have been rising, crying in the corner regret. Quotes and other really could not stand up too, and then hurried to recover in, with predictable results, but also is stuck with her earnings is returned to the market, and Chao Hui career, and in this way day after day, year after one cycle of the year cycle.
To overcome this vicious circle is actually not difficult, using our described "non-escape-top" approach, the problem can be easily solved. In fact, done is very simple, when the time goes up, we let the currency rise in Africa and the United States and complete the performance. Of course, you can use a variety of ways to predict Quotes height, but it must not be used as the basis for your open positions departure. Quotes achieved if the height of your prediction, but there is no sign of ending up at this time should respect the market trend, continue to wait for Quotes positions up until the rising trend emerged at the top of form.
In general, after the callback rise again appears at the top can not exceed the previous one when the top is the need to escape the top position. "Non-escape-top" is not to say that we really do not flee the top, but that do not escape the first one roof, because the first one the top of the top may not be true, to escape the second top, usually the second top and the top of a very high degree. There are numerous such examples of successful dispersal, interested readers can see the euro, from April this year, started this wave surged in mid-market, the top of the formation of the final is May 15 to June 5 pairs of top shocks to complete, in here will not go into details. The operation of such ideas, they are basically sold in the highest place, the profit maximization naturally.
(Snow Xin Money)
