Category: Money tips Release Date: 2006-05-01
2006: a turning point in the stock market â—?With the new "Securities Law", "Company Law" launch, as well as the imminent implementation of the Criminal Code amendments, long troubled by China's securities market can not eliminate deficiencies in the system, a sound system that brought all those involved in the main market, basically at the fair and full market-oriented environment, A-share market relative to the mature markets in recent years, the so-called "system discount" will gradually lose the basis for their existence.
�Compared with developed markets such as the U.S. and Japan, Shanghai and Shenzhen A shares experienced a "substantial premium integration ���premium discount," a long process, consider a full right after the price, A shares underestimate the extent of even more serious. In the globalization of capital markets of today, any of the securities markets have a certain size, can not long be underestimated.
â—?the United States, Europe, Hong Kong and other developed markets have been bullish for several years, the share price has been relatively overvalued for many years in Japan also hit a new high, but we belong to emerging markets with South Korea, India and the stock market, but also loss their record, the next few years , the Global Fund focus on the possibility of China, not small.
â—?investment strategy, investors should adopt a more aggressive asset allocation strategy, funds from fixed-income products, foreign stock markets, speculative real estate speculation in the greater allocation to the A-share market. Investment can be concerned about the following topics: taking a global view of investment opportunities in mining shares A; in the long-term appreciation of the renminbi under the trend of investment opportunities; full circulation from the Perspective of M & A an opportunity to explore; sector of the economy brought about by differences in investment opportunities; institutional innovation brought about by investment opportunities; "new from the old" post-IPO investment opportunities.
Bear market valuation and the turning point in the relationship between cattle Valuation is a reasonable level of foreign equity investments in mature markets to measure the value of the principal basis for valuation of changes in the level of state and the market bears turning cattle more closely to the existence dependencies. But in determining whether a market value of investments, people often have adopted price-earnings ratio of indicators to reflect the valuation levels are primarily determined by changes in price-earnings ratio.
China's stock market valuation once the state is overestimated, then the domestic stock market valuation and whether there is a certain transition cows bear the relevant relationship?
Contrast to the beginning of 1993 to early 2005, the domestic A share of the earnings trend and the trend Shanghai A share can be found, although the level of price-earnings ratio Ibid Shanghai index is not positively related to the level of the corresponding relations, but the movements in price-earnings ratio Ibid permit movement of the Index there are more obvious The correlation between the level of change in the valuation a turning point has some beef with the bear relevance. In February 1993 as the Shanghai index reached a high of 1558.95 points, when the A-shares are at 60 times price-earnings ratio of the peak level by the end of July 1994 on the Shanghai Composite Index reached 325.89 points, when the low price-earnings ratio of domestic A shares dropped sharply to 10 times below the bottom, the Shanghai Index in 1997 and 2001, two rising trend is also reflected equally.
2006 price-earnings ratio of domestic stock market valuation levels in the bottom more likely to rebound after bottoming out, based on this correlation, we believe that the domestic stock market as long as five years of adjustment will be complete in 2006, the end of 2006 are worth the wait The turning point of the year.
The relationship between macroeconomic and stock market The stock market is a barometer of macroeconomic, the stock market have a stronger macroeconomic forecasting function, which mature in foreign stock markets get sufficiently validated. An efficient market, stock market information can be fully concentrated and balanced reflection of the market for future investors in the economy, company performance expectations. So China's stock market trends and macro-economic cycle, the relationship between the barometer do?
China's stock market in the last century after the birth of 90 years, with regard to the operation of China's stock market cycles and economic cycles, policy cycle research into the mainstream field of study. Trend of China's stock market after 2001 with China's economic trends to differ materially, the Shanghai Composite Index from 2001 to the highest point of 2245 points to 2005 points, 998 points, the lowest the market has fallen by 55.5%, so that large number of research scholars Ruzhui among the clouds, so the long-term attention to this field of research scholars alike have come to the conclusion that China's stock market trend with China's economic situation has a serious departure from the stock market's role as an economic barometer has not been reflected in congenital deficiencies in the system, human factors, policy factors affecting the , the market scale accounts for the size of the proportion of the national economy is too small, etc., to become the best annotations such a conclusion.
With up to 4 years Shenfutiaozheng For vibration thrives compared to the domestic stock market in 1990, Chinese GDP growth from 3.8% rebound in the low bottomed out and has been sustained higher growth in 1992 reached the phenomenal growth of 14.2% , and then growth has slowed, but the adjustment is still low in 1999, a relatively high level of 7.1%, after 1999 the Chinese economy has entered a new round of growth cycle, to achieve an average annual GDP growth rate of 8.6% of the arrogance human performance, GDP and total in 1990 to 1.85479 trillion yuan by the continued growth in 2004 15.9878 trillion yuan, in the world economy thriving. In 2006 the pace of China's economic growth has slowed, we expect about 9.0% is still a high level of growth.
An accurate understanding of the domestic stock market and macroeconomic cycles deviated from the phenomenon must be returned to China in the stock market history and conditions to be examined, will it be possible to explore one of the intrinsic reason.
The domestic stock market in the design of the system there birth defects, two-thirds of corporate shares does not flow so that the interests of corporate shares and tradable shares appear split situation, the major shareholder of listed companies on the stock market's performance is not enough concern about inadequate corporate governance, internal control human system, the lack of transparency and information disclosure of listed companies to make the real operating conditions not be fully reflected. In addition a large number of high-quality tape divergent state-owned enterprises listed overseas, but also of domestic listed companies under-represented in the national economy, while opening up the capital market before the implementation of QFII system, the domestic A shares belong to a closed market, market trends with the effect of policies and funding effects more closely.
We believe that the trend for China's stock market and macro-economic cycle, the relationship between the phenomenon of short-term deviation from the normal and should be understandable, the stock market and macroeconomic trends are inconsistent and sometimes even showing a certain degree of negative correlation: When the macro to the good, money to withdraw from the stock market into real estate or industrial investment for steady returns, resulting in a lack of upside momentum, the stock market and vice versa, when the macroeconomic to the light, the funds began to return from the field of real estate and industrial stocks, prompting stock market instead of fall trends up.
With the valuation process of the completion of international standards, tradable market environment, the formation of an active policy of promotion of the stock market, the market transformation of the concept of regulation, financial innovation and greater efforts devoted to the improvement of corporate governance, market transparency in information disclosure to improve, equity incentive policies, and enhance the quality of listed companies, the market system greatly improved the environment, large-scale state-owned enterprises listed as a whole and internally issuing A shares listed overseas will soon become a reality, the representation of the stock market listed companies increased, the effectiveness of the domestic stock market will be able to substantially improve China's stock market trend with China's economic situation will eventually converge, the stock market barometer of economic recovery function is also no doubt that the stock market ahead of schedule to reflect the performance of macro-economic expectations.
Domestic GDP growth in 2006 down and the stabilization of negative growth performance of listed companies, this round of adjustment of the economic cycle may be the end of 2007, the market has become more common all expectations and further cool the real estate investment is also not difficult to judge, therefore, part of the funds from real estate or industrial areas to seek out new investment channels, the stock market effects of low-lying land just for this part of the funds provided a reservoir. Taken together, the stock market to achieve a turning point in 2006 (at the bottom of proven long-term regional) to restore function of a barometer of macroeconomic cycles is expected to achieve. A total of 4 1 [2] [3] [4]
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