Category: Money tips Release Date: 2006-12-22
Source: China Securities News Author: Xu Hui
Since late August of the current round of blue-chip Quotes in the near future into a small climax of blue-chip rise also led to the market of mainstream institutions --- the Fund's attention. We note that the Fund's weekly report this week, Ge Jia, fund managers talking about the most is the round blue chip Quotes.
As in the first half of the stock market, many funds will be subject-oriented stocks, such as defense stocks, brokerage stocks, new energy stocks and some reorganization of stocks as a main attack types, while the blue chips such as China Vanke, Baosteel, ZTE and other stocks were subjected to a large number of underweight. This makes it part of the delay in turning to the Fund in the recent situation of the stock market in a relatively difficult because some heavily loaded net emergence of blue-chip fund better Zhangsheng, while he had a sharp decline in the net instead.
In this context, look at the current round of public funds How blue-chip Quotes?
Agency evolutions to promote blue-chip Quotes
Throughout weekly current fund, the fund manager basically affirmed the current blue-chip market, the majority of fund managers believe that the institutional change strategy and mutually reinforcing relationship between the existence of blue-chip Quotes.
Quotes in the interpretation of reason, the GF Zhu Ping believe may be the market mainstream agencies change their tactics. Because when the market was found (subject shares) high returns have been impossible to accept lower earnings expectations, the slow growth of large cap stocks has become a most attractive stocks. Yi Fonda Zhiming that the current round of blue-chip pattern of in-depth market information bull run inevitable result of the overall domestic stock market valuation to enhance the open space, but also an inevitable return to reflect the value of late. On this basis, he concludes: "long-term value judgments focus on long-term investment funds need to keep reminding things can not, or forget."
When Bo 4 Feng-fund manager from a financial point of view interpretation of this round of exchanges, that the recent additional funding for the pre-high valuations of high-growth small-cap stocks have a certain psychological fear of high and low growth for the underestimation of the value of Blue-chips have more buying interest. Its further revealed that combinations of the reorientation of the future, "On the one hand we will continue to maintain high-quality growth stocks positions the other hand, will increase the holders of some of the basic good-oriented blue chips."
Serious differences between the future direction of
Quotes for the blue chips of the future, the differences between funds are still serious: Some funds that "spring" has just begun, while others believe that real estate, banking, aviation class blue-chip risk is not small.
On the one hand, Changsheng Fund considers large-value stocks in the spring just beginning, of course, this process may be repeated. Strong large-value stocks, but also means that China's stock market is entering a new stage of development. In view of this, his firm optimistic about market's future trend. Tenji Yu Ming Yuan that the launch of margin trading and stock index futures to bring large cap blue-chip chip demand, while the cyclical stability of the economic situation in the industry to reduce the volatility of earnings in the next period of time, there will be a strong sustainability, which is Quotes of the main reasons leading to blue chips, but also indicates that blue chips revaluation Quotes in the ascendant.
On the other hand, the relative above-mentioned Fund Quotes of the great enthusiasm of the blue chips, some of the fund seems to be rather cautious. For example, the South Fund for the pillars of the current blue-chip property stocks and banking stocks plates wary. In real estate, shares of the South that the new land-control policies and local real estate regulation rules promulgated one after another, it may once again negative impact on investor psychology. Estimated that in the first half of next year, the impact of policies on the real estate market, there will be more apparent; banks, shares of China Merchants Bank H-shares by a high-profile issue with the high price is expected to promote the recent performance of bank shares is also very impressive. However, with China Merchants Bank shares over 9 yuan, which rose room is reduced, weakening the role of the market-driven. In addition, the South also analyzes the market as a whole, the adjustment period is not over, investors have to be patient. But in view of the market to gradually return to rational thinking, the South is a long-term investment value of the proposed emphasis on business, for some industries of strategic investment value of the leading enterprises to gradually collected.
Noam funds are certainly many blue-chip worthy of promising also prompted some investors concerned about the poor fundamentals of the risk of large cap blue chips. Such as Air China, although the limit-sealed last Friday, but the whole industry a situation of continuing losses, the company's profitability and growth capacity are not viewed favorably, its rise is due to jet fuel speculation down. Similar Quotes of stocks in this can only be seen as a rebound.
Quotes blue chips still "on the road"
The fund look at blue-chip market, will also become a historic showdown: blue-chip Quotes whether the beginning or the end? This will also serve as the main decision to fund the second half of the performance of the guiding ideology. If it is considered blue-chip Quotes has just begun, then the mass deployment of high-quality blue chips will become the only choice; on the contrary, if we think real estate policy, the negative impact will be reflected in the first half of next year, then now is undoubtedly a good time to sell; banking stocks the aviation unit is the same. However, whether right or wrong then?
In addition, the overall market market, the South that continue to be refurbished, while the firm is optimistic Changsheng. For different views on the broad market, but also will have a significant impact on asset allocation. If you think that the market is still in the readjustment, then the prudent allocation shares, appropriate to retain the cash is the best choice, because adjustment will mean that there will be a better buy point in time there; on the contrary, if the firm optimistic and, then, try to increase the the stock configuration is undoubtedly the best option. However, whether right or wrong then? This is a problem.
The author's view is that, first of all, the decision is still head of the buttocks. Because you hold any stocks, tend to value what the shares, which could explain the above to some extent, the serious differences within the Fund.
Second, the blue-chip Quotes still "on the road." In fact, the real blue-chip Quotes began in 2003, in November, it has been fast three years. In other words, blue-chip Quotes have been gone three years, but still see no sign of ending, as its corporate growth is still faster than the market's valuation of them. Represented by more than 50 blue-chip permits the current price-earnings ratio of 14 times up and down, research institutions predict that the next two years the company's profit growth will be about 15% of basic. This means that in the last three years, the blue chips in maintaining the status of 14 times earnings, will each contribute 15% of the capital gains. This determines the value of blue-chip track in the next three years, although price volatility is difficult to predict, but the value of the determination of the direction of making the current holders of blue-chip benefits far outweigh the risks. And when we have a clearer understanding of some enterprises, the growth conditions, to a concentration of investment in individual companies, which may in turn yield higher than the number of 10-point blue-chip average revenue.
Third, the blue-chip index the rate of increase will be higher than the rate of increase, meaning that the stock market as a whole restructuring of the bull market will be accompanied by blue-chip simultaneously.
