Category: Money tips Release Date: 2006-08-03
Source: King George Gao Hong Weekly Stock Market
Tape, after breaking 3000 points, and even a few pull-yang, all the way up to 3500 points, the market sentiment high, most agencies will target the more than 4,000 points, and even some market participants point of welcoming cry 5100, "51", year see the 10000 points slogans.
In my opinion, from the midline of view, next year, 6000 points should not be a problem, let alone 10,000 long-term, but in the recent four months late, the market will face a large-scale pullback, the main reasons are: first, the market facing a more callback great pressure to banking, real estate, brewing, represented by blue-chip stock prices rose last year, shocking the first half of this year, should have access to adjust, but because of the market rose all the way up, the price of such shares has not been much down, most just horizontal consolidation, profit-cleaning disc has not been effective; launched earlier this year, is now entering the peak cap, lower Quotes accumulated a lot of profit-plate, these stocks generally higher price-earnings ratio, especially in some of the ST unit, rely on re-imagination of space will be pulled stock prices, its performance can not simply support the stock price, will be the focus of the adjustment plate. Second, the central bank to take austerity measures the signal significantly, the central bank the first quarter of this year, raising deposit and lending rates in turn a very short time after the deposit reserve rate by 0.5 percentage points to 10.5%, fully demonstrated by the central bank interest rates and reserve requirements and other market instruments management of excess liquidity determination. The first quarter of this year, CP (price inflation index) data will be published next week, if more than the beginning of the development of the CPI at 3% target, do not rule out the central bank will have more control measures introduced, successive interest rate hikes will have broad market index a significant rise in pressure. Third, the four mid-to late release of quarterly report is the intensive period, the performance in general and the underperformance of many the company's performance report will be issued, when the market became clear expectations for performance, after adjustment of the likelihood of immensely great. In addition, the four mid-to late up to 89 million shares of the reduction of non-tradable shares, and "51" holiday to the broader market uncertainty will result in no small pressure.
In short, I believe that, in view of the above factors, the broader market appeared in the mid to late wave of four major adjustment efforts in the possibility of great profit for the hands of the larger varieties should promptly clean up the center line, waiting for a callback after the broader market to absorb in line with national industry policy, the potential of growth stocks midline.
