Category: Money Tips Date: 2007-05-18
Source: Guangzhou Bandung
Abstract: Facing the surprising trend, investors will ask: How big adjustment? What is the nature of the adjustment? Is the half-way adjustment for bottom and re-Quotes? We estimate that half-way adjustment for majority, slightly lower than last Friday basically bottomed out after 1634 points. Of course, there are likely to fall to below 1600 points. Response is ... ...
Thursday broad market gapped higher to open after 11 o'clock, surprisingly dropped out of the unilateral movements. Despite the high hopes in the petrochemical market, there are nearly 5% increase, but the plate has shown a sharp Tiaokongdikai petrochemical, after the rapid collapse, and bring the whole index to drop abruptly.
Surprising in the face of broader market trends, the majority of investors will ask the question: adjustment, will be Thursday began what is the nature of adjustment, is half-way adjustment for bottom and re-Quotes? - If the former, will be transferred to a maximum of 1620 points in the vicinity. If it is re-bottom market, then the first target to fall to below 1600 points, the second target fell to 1560 points.
Tape to determine the nature of the adjustment, we predict the key to broad market fall.
First, the basic characteristics of today's Quotes.
Quotes of the basic characteristics of today.
First, China's Sinopec is just out of the rise of the independent market, has not driven up tape. In addition to the contribution of gapped has its opening, the rest of the time Sinopec has nothing to do with the basic movement of the Index. In other words, the market hopes that Sinopec led the market to rise further expectations of the market.
Second, the index in particular, Shen Chengzhi day to drop a unilateral way to start the adjustment. This is the market is not thought of.
Third, the decline is not the dominant force in pre-sales of non-ferrous metal plates, real estate plates, military plate, but the petrochemical plate.
Fourth, in the broader market adjustment, the two units to 600,296, 000,807, represented by cloud aluminum, nonferrous metal plate is still increased in spite of.
Second, the main intention of fighting what is it?
To change the use of Sinopec shares resume trading, so that the market's future to speak of high hopes, and then a sudden backhand short, playing the market a unexpectedly. This tactic is that the Chinese stock market has always been the main combat tactics, although the market there is a certain preparedness, has been ascribed to resume trading would fall prevention. But the main player is more ruthless, walked out after the unilateral gapped sharply lower trend.
The question now is, why the main force to create such a Quotes. This see through the appearance there is a fundamental problem, is to operate through the main phenomena, in particular, reflect their true intentions of the clues in the battle and found its true intentions.
First of all, why not take advantage of the main force of China Petrochemical good expectations, climax and then fried a small retreat. Objectively, it is equipped with such conditions, the main speculation in the market will agree that will follow up. Such good conditions, the main why not use? - Is not that it does not want to set at a high level people?
Second, why today is a unilateral drop onto a tape, in particular Shen Chengzhi long a force almost no resistance. From the truth in terms of the broader market fell from the rising to the need for a process, why not do this process? Why is the main force from the beginning to force the market to do everything possible to ship? - Is the limited fall do?
Third, the tape drive down the main species, in theory at this stage should be the largest increase of the plate, this is the real adjustment. But today the contrary, the drive behind the broader market decline is evident in the large city of petrochemical plate, but increased in spite of non-ferrous metal plate. This phenomenon irrational, very strange?
3, afternoon forecast.
In summary, our preliminary view, the market down should belong to the middle of this period of adjustment. With last Friday's unilateral decline in the rise this week, a few days ago, constitutes A, B, C wave adjustment. Today tape up a fierce left unilateral drop is a typical C-wave move down the main features.
If this is nothing wrong, then tape down the range will be limited. Is estimated that slightly less than 1634 points last Friday, the broader market bottomed on the basic. Time is two or three days to adjust to an end, you can return to the broader market rally. That big city tomorrow, may still be unilateral decline.
Of course, another possibility is that the broader market fell to 1600 points to the following range.
Here is the most tested analyst vision place.
Fourth, investors face in the current Quotes response.
Scheduled to face the sudden sharp drop, investors must not panic, do not be intimidated by aggressive declines. To calm analysis of the main operational intentions. In the hands of the stock to sell if the profits that can be the first time being the first not to buy. Is estimated that early next week, Big City, is likely to stand firm, to the point in time depending on the circumstances, determine a new round of Quotes of the main hotspots, and then consider intervention.
