Category: Money tips Release Date: 2006-08-13
Recently, Baosteel Warrants is no doubt the market focus on right now: yesterday that the warrant of funds continues to be sought after, the same day or once a maximum of around 45% - after the listing of its cumulative gains to 165% (or 0.688 yuan as the comparison base price), their short-term brought about by rich-quick opportunities within the market have blood spray Zhang. I think that, as small investors, the right Baosteel warrants the hype or should be treated with caution.
Baoshan Iron and Steel prices have been overvalued warrants
Baosteel Warrants trading from the situation, speculative hot money to become a major force, its implementation of Baosteel warrants holding high-dozen operations, much to the surprise of the market expectations. Prior to that, because the fund holds nearly half of Baoshan Iron and Steel about the number of warrants, while the Fund through the valuation model (B-S) on the valuation of Baoshan Iron and Steel warrants were less than 0.8 yuan, so the market is widely expected to dominated the fund Shigekura Baosteel Warrants after listing of its price difficult to deviate significantly from its intrinsic value.
In fact, the hot money speculation Baosteel Warrants dare There are several reasons: First, hot money well versed in the domestic market speculation of new practices and market speculation of new psychology; second is the total size of Baosteel warrants only a mere 387.7 million copies, hot money to spend 5 about 100 million of funds that we can achieve the purpose of fully Kongpan to mobilize this amount of hot money on abysmal in terms of financial strength to be not a problem. But the present situation warrants the price of Baosteel has clearly overvalued.
First of all, the author according to the Shenzhen Stock Exchange Web site (http://strade.szse.cn/qzmnds/qzcomputer.jsp) to provide the "Warrant Price Calculator" estimates, to about 4.6 yuan yesterday, Baosteel price calculations, the inner Baosteel Warrants Price is only 0.699 yuan, while Baoshan Iron and Steel warrant yesterday, the highest price of 1.83 yuan is overvalued rate has reached 161%. At the same time through the "Warrant Price Calculator" estimates, 1.83 yuan warrant the price means that the next 378 trading days Baosteel's share price may reach 6.02 yuan, which means that Baosteel future price rises will reach about 30% (as opposed to the current 4.6 yuan a share price), which also means that during the Baosteel's earnings per share to grow about 30%. However, in the context of the current macro-control in steel prices has shown a downward trend in the case, as the cyclical performance of the stock increased 30% Baosteel is still relatively large degree of difficulty.
It can be seen clearly now the speculation Baosteel Warrants silly show the characteristics of Bo, with inferior resources, and information disadvantage small and medium investors to participate in Baosteel is undoubtedly warrants dancing on the knife's edge, the risk is obvious as well.
Related to the stock price impact of warrants
Affect the warrant price fluctuations by many factors, such as the remaining time, the underlying stock volatility, risk-free interest rate, the validity period of the cash dividend yield and so on, but the impact of price volatility warrants the most important factor is related to stock price fluctuations in the direction and magnitude of size, this is a mature market with an important basis for investors to invest in warrants. Hong Kong stock market has the world's largest and most mature of the warrants market in Hong Kong in 2004 are active warrants, the number of turnover and new listing are a record high. The year Hong Kong stock market turnover amounted to 3.9741 trillion HK dollars in 1997 to more than the 3.789 trillion HK. The warrants turnover amounted to 524.5 billion Hong Kong dollars, more than 264 billion Hong Kong dollars in 2003, an increase of almost 100%, the number of newly listed warrants it is up to 1259, a record high. 2005 January-May data show that warrants turnover reached 264.4 billion Hong Kong dollars; newly issued warrants have 541, of which Societe Generale issued 111, accounting for 20.5%, is issuing the largest number of issuers. Since July of this year, the Hong Kong market broke out in a wave of warrants issued once appeared in 80 new warrants (and all warrants) available within a week, and sought after by investors situation. The reason why this happens, mainly Hong Kong there was a substantial rise in the stock market, and investors there are also expectations of the stock market continue to rise. Thus, the relevant stock price volatility is to invest an important basis for warrants.
Warrant theoretical price may be zero
Warrants the charm lies in its leverage is to invest a small amount of money can win the big benefits: for example, the current share price of a stock 6 yuan, assuming its current price of 0.5 yuan warrants, convertible ratio is 1:1. This means that buying a warrant to buy Yigu benefits and benefits are the same, but the cost is only the twelfth, that is, the warrant leverage ratio of 12 times (6/0.5), money magnified 12 times, investors, the biggest loss is the premium, which is 0.5 yuan this year but would be much better.
In that warrants greater income is also a need to remind investors that the stop-loss on investment in particular, warrants warrants is very important. If there is no stop-loss of consciousness, it is best not to intervene in warrants investment. Because investment and stock warrants can not be used the same strategy: You just think that the stock texture of fine, can be medium to long term hold, short-term quilt does not matter, but the warrants are different. Because the warrants have time value, when the warrants quilt, its time value as the expiration date approaches and the one day at a loss, when close to maturity, generally in a month or so, there will be a rapid fall. At this time will be very alarming decline in warrants, in theory, its price would be zero.
