Category: Money tips Release Date: 2007-01-17
Financial: G China Merchants Bank, G livelihood
Mechanical: G heavy machine, G force, G Shen Machine, G Zhenhua,
Medical: G Tong Ren Tang, G Tasly
Transportation: G Citroen, G Shanghai airport, G Tianjin Port, G Yantian Port
Food & Beverage: G Ely, G old cellar, G Wuliangye, Bright Dairy, G New Hope
Chemical: G Wan-hua, G Xin, G marine engineering
Public: G raw water, G's first
Commercial Retail: G 100 Union, G heald super, G World
Thematic Investing - central enterprise integration: Lanzhou Aluminum and Shandong Aluminum Industry, Jiaozuo Wanfang, Sinotrans Development, G New Steel and Vanadium, G JISCO, G OCT, the Great Wall of shares
Bohai Securities Research Institute, Ma Jing, such as Tian Hui Zhang Tiepeng
We believe that the stocks in May will remain high shocks and movements characteristic of the rate of increase is not significant, but it dropped space will be very limited. This trend of high shock will provide investors with structured opportunities for individual stocks.
Industry profile to avoid short-term risk
We believe that the yuan revaluation is a long-term trend, which will bring China into the advance stage of development. In the context of the RMB appreciation, from the perspective of industrial upgrading, capital-intensive and technology-intensive industries will show good growth, so optimistic about our long-term finance, real estate, machinery, electronics and information industries.
Although the long term, in the "Eleventh Five-Year" in China against the backdrop of steady economic growth, the state encouraged the development of the industry will continue to get bigger, but because of China's rapid economic growth in the first quarter, signs of macro-control pressures. April 28 to raise short-term lending interest rate policy would increase the market cost of funds, capital-intensive industries, the short-term will be affected. May we have proposed the allocation of attention in the industry, finance, machinery, food and beverage, medicine, commerce, transportation and other industries.
Investment opportunities from the point of view, first of all, we still insist on a long-term bullish trend of the RMB appreciation, benefiting the most real estate and financial stocks. April 28 to raise lending interest rates pose a direct positive financial stocks will be beneficial to the performance of its substantial growth in 2006. However, the increase in lending rates on short-term real estate industry would constitute a direct negative, so the short-term Investors are advised to avoid the plate.
Second, the defense industry to strengthen the macro-control expectations, should be a good choice. Or less may be concerned about the pre-medicine, transportation, airports, logistics, ports, food and beverage and other industries stocks.
Thirdly, in the tradable context, mergers and acquisitions will become a persistent theme. Judging from the current situation, the central enterprises integrate the background for a large group of assets more attractive to investors in its eye. May we continue to draw investor attention to the central enterprise background for a large group company integrated its actions and its related investment opportunities.
Focus on the sector,
Raising interest rates will rise in the cost of funds and lead to decreased growth rate of the loan scale, but the impact of A-share listed banks to different degrees. First, the size of loans is a structural decline in growth by regulation of the industry loans fell by a big margin, but the state support the types of trades that loan growth is unlikely to slow down. A-share listed banks are better risk control in the banking industry groups, industry overcapacity and national regulation of credit have been more cautious. We believe that the growth rate of decrease in the size of their loans will be less than the interest rate rise.
Second, high-quality large-scale companies will be more inclined to direct financing, currently the largest possible increase in the size of short-term financing bonds. As a result, by small and medium-based banks will be less affected, such as the G and people's livelihood; while with the underwriting of such business, the bank will be eligible to obtain the relevant revenues, such as China Merchants Bank and other G.
In addition, five mid-line of H share offering will be further defined the A-share listed bank's valuation range. Is expected to lower its offering price less likely to CCB. Suggested that a large increase in the background, select the macro better able to circumvent the risk of listed banks, such as the middle of a good business and retail business based G-China Merchants Bank.
"Voices from enterprise integration" hot spots will become sustainable
In October 2007 is the central SASAC require enterprises to achieve the top three trade deadline. ,2006-2007, we believe that the market will usher in the first half of the central integration of its business enterprises to enhance their own value to new heights. Therefore, the "integration of its central enterprises listed company" will be the direction of investment in 2006, one of the subject.
Central enterprises the opportunity to integrate its listed companies is mainly reflected in two aspects: First, integration of stock under the trigger to change the city of opportunities; second, high-quality assets into the overall market.
Split share structure reform has accelerated the A-share market mergers and acquisitions wave of industry consolidation. A subsidiary of Sinopec Yangzi Petrochemical tender offer, Qilu petrochemical investment to provide a certain amount of risk-free returns, but also makes the integration of central enterprises under the City's assets, as investors most concerned about investment opportunities. Of course, the central enterprises to integrate and will not be under the city as the main means of integration, mergers and acquisitions, asset injections, asset stripping and other means of industry consolidation are just tender offer can be risk-free return for investors, there is also a concern.
On the integration of its listed companies under the central city of enterprises will not be many, so in May we continue to remind investors concerned about the aluminum under the Department of the city of opportunities for business integration. In addition, in the current A-share companies, Sinotrans development as the major shareholder is the H-share listed companies, shares of reform have a certain degree of difficulty, and thus there is the possibility of integration of the next city.
Through the injection of quality assets, the central enterprises to improve the quality of its listed companies, or through the overall listing of a listed company's bigger and stronger, and will be the highlight of integration of central enterprises. May as well as the next few months, we recommend investors to pay close attention to high-quality assets into the central enterprises, the overall market listed company by means of integration arising from its investment opportunities.
Data from the present perspective, the real estate industry may be the vanguard of integration of central enterprises. For example, COFCO backdoor G Baoheng, successfully created a new platform for capital markets; and G Merchants in the split share structure reform of listed companies are committed to inject high quality assets in support of development of the company. Although in the real estate industry, there is no overall listing of cases, but the market rumors Overseas Chinese Town Group, the possibility of adopting this approach. Integration of the central enterprises of real estate background, to these companies brings a wealth of imagination.
In addition, the steel industry as a whole listing of special attention. Baoshan Iron and Steel Group, Wuhan Iron and Steel Group, Anshan Iron and Steel Group, has basically completed the overall market, its performance is achieved substantial growth in the industry against the risk of capacity has been strengthened. From the Panzhihua Iron and Steel Group of view, under which there are G New Steel and Vanadium, the Great Wall of shares, climbed Chongqing Titanium and other three listed companies, the Group will achieve the backdoor G New Steel and Vanadium assets, the overall market, it would be the Great Wall of shares, climbed Chongqing Titanium to integration under the city, gave investors a room for imagination. Another steel plate in the stock market reform process revealed that the overall intent, one of the largest plate, G JISCO, G TISCO, G Baotou and other listed companies have similar expressions, which are worth close attention.
